Sasol Ltd (SSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Sasol Ltd $27.99, price $16.34, upside +71.3%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.93 – $24.34 · fair‑value band $18.38 – $41.15 · the $16.34 price screens below the $27.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 17, 2026.
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Sasol Limited operates as a chemical and energy company.
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It offers bitumen, industrial heating fuels, naphtha, lubricants and lubricant base oils, liquefied petroleum gas, automotive and industrial lubricants, greases, cleansers and degreasers, automotive fuels, and burner fuels or domestic, as well as illuminating paraffin transport fuels, such as petrol, diesel, and jet fuels.
The company also provides methane rich and natural gas.
In addition, it offers ammonium nitrate, limestone ammonium nitrate, and nitric acid for agriculture; industrial foaming agents, wax/hydrophobic coatings and industrial pegs, dispersible hydrates, boehmites, and aluminum oxides for building and construction; short-chain alcohols for flavors and fragrances; liquids, flakes, powders, and polyethylene glycols for health and wellness; caustic soda, hydrochloric acid CP Grade, and calcium chloride for industrial and institutional cleaning; alumina-based catalyst, cobalt FT catalysts, and mixed metal oxides for inorganic materials and catalysts; chemical feedstocks, process solvents, and chemicals for manufacturing and industrial; viscosity modifiers, chemical carriers, and adsorbents for mining, oil, and gas; hydrocarbons, surfactants, polyether, and polyglycols for paper and water; surfactants, dyes, finishing agents, tanning agents, and emulsifiers for textile and leather; and other chemicals for automotive and transportation, consumer goods, home care, packaging, printing, coatings, personal care, and polymers sectors.
Further, it is involved in engineering services, research and development, and technology transfer; management of cash resources, investments, and procurement of loans; develop and implement international gas to liquid and CTL ventures; marketing of fuels and lubricants; trading and transportation of oil products, petrochemicals and chemical products, and derivatives; and coal mining activities.
Sasol Limited was founded in 1950 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sasol Ltd (SSL) currently trades at $16.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.99, implying the stock looks roughly 41.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.84 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $16.34 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.26, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.38 (bear) to $41.15 (bull), the price of $16.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sasol Ltd reported revenue of 266B ZAR in FY2026 versus 273B ZAR in FY2022, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 11.9B ZAR in FY2026, compounding −25.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $10.7B · P/E ratio 13.9 · P/S ratio 0.62 · EPS (TTM) $1.16 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 207% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 71%, SSL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.38Fair Value $27.99Bull$41.15
Price $16.34 · Upside +71.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3464 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.6% vs −5.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.0% a year for the price and −6.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Sasol's coal-to-liquids operations deliver strong cash flows and debt reduction, yet low profitability and limited moat in competitive chemicals constrain overall business quality.
Main risk: Challenges in scaling sustainable fuels and chemicals without compromising core margins could undermine returns from the established coal-to-liquids operations.
Sasol's coal-to-liquids operations at Secunda reached a five-year production high last year while generating strong cash flows and cutting net debt. This established model has powered recent outperformance in higher oil price conditions, yet the company must simultaneously scale sustainable fuels and chemicals without compromising core margins. Will the legacy platform keep funding the transition, or will new project execution weigh on returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 708 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+75.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)23.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sasol Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SSL.US
Frequently asked questions
Is Sasol Ltd (SSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.99 versus a price of $16.34, about +71% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SSL?
Our model-based fair value for Sasol Ltd is $27.99 (as of Oct 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.34.
What is the quality score of SSL?
Sasol Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.99 (as of Oct 17, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.38, optimistic scenario $41.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sasol Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.99, about +71% upside versus a price of $16.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.38, optimistic scenario $41.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Sasol Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 272B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 17, 2026).
Does Sasol Ltd pay a dividend?
Sasol Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 17, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sasol Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Oct 17, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSL use?
Our models discount Sasol Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sasol Ltd that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sasol Ltd (SSL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sasol Ltd grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sasol Ltd (SSL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sasol Ltd (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.68 %: that much free cash flow Sasol Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sasol Ltd it is $27.99 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026), against a price of $16.34. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sasol Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 17, 2026, SSL trades below its calculated fair value: price $16.34, fair value $27.99, a gap of about +71% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.99). For Sasol Ltd the two are $11.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sasol Ltd worth?
The market values Sasol Ltd at about $10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 17, 2026). Per share that is $16.34; our models calculate a fair value of $27.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSL?
Our models span a range for Sasol Ltd: cautious scenario $18.38, base $27.99, optimistic $41.15 per share (as of Oct 17, 2026, price $16.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SSL?
Sasol Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.9 (as of Oct 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SSL?
The PEG ratio of Sasol Ltd is 0.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 17, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sasol Ltd (as of Oct 17, 2026): return on equity 8.8%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSL from its 52-week high?
Sasol Ltd trades at $16.34, at its 52-week high of $16.34 and 207% above the low of $5.33 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sasol Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sasol Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 17, 2026: price $16.34, calculated fair value $27.99 (+71%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSL calculated?
We run Sasol Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Sasol Ltd currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $16.34. Our model-based fair value is $27.99, about +71% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sasol Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($18.38). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($18.38 to $41.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sasol Ltd (SSL) come from?
Earnings per share at Sasol Ltd grew −8.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sasol Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The market capitalisation of Sasol Ltd is $10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sasol Ltd is 0.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Earnings per share at Sasol Ltd are $1.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The dividend yield of Sasol Ltd is 0.0% (payout 0.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The net margin of Sasol Ltd is 4.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sasol Ltd is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sasol Ltd is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
The operating margin of Sasol Ltd is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Revenue at Sasol Ltd is growing +17.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sasol Ltd (SSL)?
Earnings per share at Sasol Ltd are growing +448% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sasol Ltd (SSL) carry?
The net debt of Sasol Ltd is 67.2B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 17, 2026