StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of StepChange Holdings Ltd A$0.26, price A$0.12, upside +116.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range A$0.1000 – A$0.2000 · fair‑value band A$0.1500 – A$0.4000 · the A$0.1200 price screens below the A$0.2600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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StepChange Holdings Limited operates as an SAP ERP consulting firm. It serves industries, such as mining, oil and gas, resources and utilities, and government. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH) currently trades at A$0.1200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2600, implying the stock looks roughly 53.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.3500 per share, and 15 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.1200 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 7 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1500 (bear) to A$0.4000 (bull), the price of A$0.1200 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
StepChange Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$42.5M in FY2025 versus A$27.4M in FY2022, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.2M in FY2025, compounding +17.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$18.8M (≈ $13.2M) · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 23,566% · Return on assets (EBIT) 56.9% · Operating margin 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 117%, STH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.1500Fair Value A$0.2600Bull A$0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Compare StepChange Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+108% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)15.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
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Is StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2600 versus a price of A$0.1200, about +117% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STH?
Our model-based fair value for StepChange Holdings Ltd is A$0.2600 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1200.
What is the quality score of STH?
StepChange Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2600 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1500, optimistic scenario A$0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the StepChange Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2600, about +117% upside versus a price of A$0.1200 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1500, optimistic scenario A$0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
StepChange Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$24.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For StepChange Holdings Ltd it is A$0.2600 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.1200. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is StepChange Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, STH trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1200, fair value A$0.2600, a gap of about +117% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2600). For StepChange Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.1400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is StepChange Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values StepChange Holdings Ltd at about A$18.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STH?
Our models span a range for StepChange Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1500, base A$0.2600, optimistic A$0.4000 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.1200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STH?
StepChange Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2600 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.9, P/S 0.6.
How far is STH from its 52-week high?
StepChange Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.1200, about 31% below its 52-week high of A$0.1750 and 20% above the low of A$0.1000 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to StepChange Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is StepChange Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.1200, calculated fair value A$0.2600 (+117%), Quality Score 64/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STH calculated?
We run StepChange Holdings Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. StepChange Holdings Ltd currently trades 117 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.1200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2600, about +117% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with StepChange Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.1500). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.1500 to A$0.4000). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of StepChange Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
The market capitalisation of StepChange Holdings Ltd is A$18.8M (≈ $13.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of StepChange Holdings Ltd is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
Earnings per share at StepChange Holdings Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
The net margin of StepChange Holdings Ltd is 7.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of StepChange Holdings Ltd is 23,566% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of StepChange Holdings Ltd is 56.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of StepChange Holdings Ltd (STH)?
The operating margin of StepChange Holdings Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
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