StepChange Holdings (STH) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · AU · Market cap A$19.8M
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +20.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 128% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.1700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.1700 to A$0.4100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (13 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
13‑month range A$0.1000 – A$0.2000 · fair‑value band A$0.1700 – A$0.4100 · the A$0.1450 price screens below the A$0.3300 fair value. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
StepChange Holdings (STH) currently trades at A$0.1450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3300, implying the stock looks roughly 127.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, StepChange Holdings generated revenue of A$24.4M at a net margin of -0.8%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 13.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.1700 (bear case) to A$0.4100 (bull case); at A$0.1450, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 128%, STH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$0.3500) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
StepChange Holdings Limited operates as an SAP ERP consulting firm. It serves industries, such as mining, oil and gas, resources and utilities, and government. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
StepChange Holdings reported revenue of A$42.5M in FY2025 versus A$27.4M in FY2022, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$3.2M in FY2025, compounding +17.4%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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