The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Swatch Group AG $57.65, price $211, upside -72.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $142.31 – $408.63 · fair‑value band $47.89 – $73.12 · the $211.10 price screens above the $57.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments.
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The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments. The Watches & Jewelry segment designs, produces, and commercializes watches and jewelry. The Electronic Systems segment engages in the design, production, and commercialization of electronic components, as well as sports timing activities. The company is also involved in the provision of assembly, research and development, administration, logistics and distribution, and customer services; and hard material components, microelectronics, watch cases and crowns, miniature low-frequency quartz crystals, thin wires, miniature batteries, watch dials and hands, bracelets, sports timing technology and equipment, precision parts, electronic components assembly, and surface treatment products. In addition, it engages in the patent, retail, communication, real estate, real estate management, finance, reinsurance, and art center businesses. The company offers its watch and jewelry products under the Breguet, Harry Winston, Blancpain, Glashütte Original, Jaquet Droz, Omega, Longines, Rado, Union Glashütte, Tissot, Balmain, Certina, Mido, Hamilton, Swatch, and Flik Flak brands. The Swatch Group AG was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) currently trades at $211.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.65, 72.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $180.13 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $211.10 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $40.88, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $47.89 (bear) to $73.12 (bull), the price of $211.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
The Swatch Group AG reported revenue of CHF 6.3B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 3.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.4B · P/S ratio 2.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin 2.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −73%, SWGAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $47.89Fair Value $57.65Bull $73.12
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−64.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−66.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−66.9% vs −44.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CHF, Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.6% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Luxury Goods · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−38.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Luxury Goods median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.13× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF136.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA24.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.13× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 48
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 55
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Swatch Group AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWGAF
Frequently asked questions
Is The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.65 versus a price of $211.10, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWGAF?
Our model-based fair value for The Swatch Group AG is $57.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $211.10.
What is the quality score of SWGAF?
The Swatch Group AG has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $57.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.89, optimistic scenario $73.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Swatch Group AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $57.65, about −73% upside versus a price of $211.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $47.89, optimistic scenario $73.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The Swatch Group AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 6.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does The Swatch Group AG pay a dividend?
The Swatch Group AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Swatch Group AG would have to grow free cash flow by +33.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWGAF use?
Our models discount The Swatch Group AG at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Swatch Group AG that is +33.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Swatch Group AG grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies +33.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Swatch Group AG (+33.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.08 %: that much free cash flow The Swatch Group AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Swatch Group AG it is $57.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $211.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Swatch Group AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SWGAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $211.10, fair value $57.65, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWGAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($211.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($57.65). For The Swatch Group AG the two are $153.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Swatch Group AG worth?
The market values The Swatch Group AG at about $13.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $211.10; our models calculate a fair value of $57.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWGAF?
Our models span a range for The Swatch Group AG: cautious scenario $47.89, base $57.65, optimistic $73.12 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $211.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SWGAF?
The PEG ratio of The Swatch Group AG is 0.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Swatch Group AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 0.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWGAF from its 52-week high?
The Swatch Group AG trades at $211.10, about 24% below its 52-week high of $279.32 and 11% above the low of $190.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $57.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Swatch Group AG?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Compagnie Financière Richemont SA, Christian Dior SE, Titan Company, Kering SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Swatch Group AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $211.10, calculated fair value $57.65 (−73%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWGAF calculated?
We run The Swatch Group AG through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $57.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Swatch Group AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $211.10. Our model-based fair value is $57.65, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Swatch Group AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($73.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) come from?
Earnings per share at The Swatch Group AG grew −10.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.4 %, EBIT margin −7.8 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Swatch Group AG
How large is the market capitalisation of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The market capitalisation of The Swatch Group AG is $13.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Swatch Group AG is 2.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
Earnings per share at The Swatch Group AG are $0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The dividend yield of The Swatch Group AG is 2.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The net margin of The Swatch Group AG is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Swatch Group AG is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Swatch Group AG is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
The operating margin of The Swatch Group AG is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
Revenue at The Swatch Group AG is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF)?
Earnings per share at The Swatch Group AG are growing −85.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) hold?
The Swatch Group AG holds more cash than debt, CHF 972M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026