The Swatch Group (SWGAY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.5B
The Swatch Group
SWGAY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 5, 2026, revised from $5.42 to $2.77 (−48.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −12.7% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $8.14 – $13.83 · fair‑value band $2.28 – $3.55 · the $11.44 price screens above the $2.77 fair value. As of Jul 5, 2026.
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The Swatch Group (SWGAY) currently trades at $11.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.77, implying the stock looks roughly 75.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Swatch Group generated revenue of $6.3B at a net margin of 0.1%. Revenue declined 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $972M. Fundamentals as of Jul 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.28 (bear case) to $3.55 (bull case); at $11.44, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -76%, SWGAY screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
The Swatch Group AG designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components in Switzerland, rest of Europe, Greater China, Asia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The company operates through Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems segments. The Watches & Jewelry segment designs, produces, and commercializes watches and jewelry. The Electronic Systems segment engages in the design, production, and commercialization of electronic components, as well as sports timing activities. The company is also involved in the provision of assembly, research and development, administration, logistics and distribution, and customer services; and hard material components, microelectronics, watch cases and crowns, miniature low-frequency quartz crystals, thin wires, miniature batteries, watch dials and hands, bracelets, sports timing technology and equipment, precision parts, electronic components assembly, and surface treatment products. In addition, it engages …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Swatch Group reported revenue of $6.3B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound −3.7%/yr. Reported net income was $3.0M in FY2025, compounding −75.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
- BofA lists the strongest luxury brands in 2026
- Moonshot vibes: Luxury retail could benefit from the SpaceX IPO and hot Asian markets
- Swatch store closures highlight luxury frenzy, resale fever
- Luxury stocks rise on Middle East peace hopes
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
Similar stocks
10 more Luxury Goods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne, LVMUY | $117.17 | $80.70 | -31% |
| Hermès International Société en commandite par actions HESAY | $202.49 | $92.81 | -54% |
| Compagnie Financière Richemont SA CFR | CHF 168.90 | CHF 112.92 | -33% |
| Christian Dior SE CHDRY | $129.80 | $151.76 | +17% |
| Titan Company TITAN | ₹4,042 | ₹1,546 | -62% |
| Kering SA PPRUF | $318.73 | $86.66 | -73% |
| Tapestry, Inc TPR | $140.10 | $16.77 | -88% |
| Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group 1929 | HK$11.27 | HK$13.19 | +17% |
| Prada S.p.A PRDSF | $4.90 | $6.10 | +24% |
| Laopu Gold Co LPGCY | $5.96 | $6.89 | +16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.