Tredegar Corporation (TG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tredegar Corporation $7.38, price $7.01, upside +5.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.01 – $12.81 · fair‑value band $4.69 – $10.00 · the $7.01 price screens below the $7.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Tredegar Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminum extrusions, and polyethylene and polypropylene plastic films in the United States and internationally. It operates through Aluminum Extrusions and High performance films segments.
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Tredegar Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminum extrusions, and polyethylene and polypropylene plastic films in the United States and internationally. It operates through Aluminum Extrusions and High performance films segments. The Aluminum Extrusions segment produces soft and medium strength alloyed, custom fabricated, and finished aluminum extrusions for the building and construction, automotive and transportation, consumer durable goods, machinery and equipment, electrical and renewable energy, and distribution markets; and manufactures mill, machined, anodized and painted and thermally improved aluminum extrusions to fabricators and distributors. This segment also manufactures and sells products, such as flooring trims under the Futura Transitions brand name; and structural aluminum framing systems under the TSLOTS brand name. The High performance films segment produces surface protection films used for protecting components of flat panel and flexible displays that are used in televisions, monitors, notebooks, smart phones, tablets, e-readers, electronic shelf labels, and automobiles under the UltraMask, ForceField, ForceField PEARL, Pearl A, and Obsidian brands. This segment provides adcanved packaging films for bathroom tissue and paper towels and films for other markets. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Tredegar Corporation (TG) currently trades at $7.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.38, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.41 per share, and 14 of the 22 models we run sit above the $7.01 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.08, and 8 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.69 (bear) to $10.00 (bull), the price of $7.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Tredegar Corporation reported revenue of $723M in FY2025 versus $826M in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $33.5M in FY2025, compounding −12.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $280M · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $0.8200 · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 5%, TG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.69Fair Value $7.38Bull $10.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5998 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10% vs 0%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 262 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tredegar Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TG
Frequently asked questions
Is Tredegar Corporation (TG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.38 versus a price of $7.01, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TG?
Our model-based fair value for Tredegar Corporation is $7.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.01.
What is the quality score of TG?
Tredegar Corporation has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.38 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $10.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tredegar Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.38, about +5% upside versus a price of $7.01 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $4.69, optimistic scenario $10.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Tredegar Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $745M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tredegar Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +12.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TG use?
Our models discount Tredegar Corporation at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tredegar Corporation that is +12.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tredegar Corporation (TG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tredegar Corporation grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies +12.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tredegar Corporation (TG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tredegar Corporation (+12.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.46 %: that much free cash flow Tredegar Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tredegar Corporation it is $7.38 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.01. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tredegar Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TG trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.01, fair value $7.38, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.38). For Tredegar Corporation the two are $0.3700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tredegar Corporation worth?
The market values Tredegar Corporation at about $280M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.01; our models calculate a fair value of $7.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TG?
Our models span a range for Tredegar Corporation: cautious scenario $4.69, base $7.38, optimistic $10.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TG?
Tredegar Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
What is the PEG ratio of TG?
The PEG ratio of Tredegar Corporation is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tredegar Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TG from its 52-week high?
Tredegar Corporation trades at $7.01, about 32% below its 52-week high of $10.35 and 11% above the low of $6.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tredegar Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tredegar Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.01, calculated fair value $7.38 (+5%), Quality Score 65/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TG calculated?
We run Tredegar Corporation through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Tredegar Corporation currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.01. Our model-based fair value is $7.38, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tredegar Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($4.69 to $10.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tredegar Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The market capitalisation of Tredegar Corporation is $280M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tredegar Corporation is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Earnings per share at Tredegar Corporation are $0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The net margin of Tredegar Corporation is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tredegar Corporation is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tredegar Corporation is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The operating margin of Tredegar Corporation is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Revenue at Tredegar Corporation is growing +13.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Earnings per share at Tredegar Corporation are growing −44.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tredegar Corporation (TG) carry?
The net debt of Tredegar Corporation is $41.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026