Tredegar Corporation (TG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tredegar Corporation stock $7.40, price $5.39, upside +37.3%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.01 – $12.02 · fair‑value band $4.71 – $10.03 · the $5.39 price screens below the $7.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Tredegar Corporation, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells aluminum extrusions, and polyethylene and polypropylene plastic films in the United States and internationally. It operates through Aluminum Extrusions and High performance films segments.
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The Aluminum Extrusions segment produces soft and medium strength alloyed, custom fabricated, and finished aluminum extrusions for the building and construction, automotive and transportation, consumer durable goods, machinery and equipment, electrical and renewable energy, and distribution markets; and manufactures mill, machined, anodized and painted and thermally improved aluminum extrusions to fabricators and distributors.
This segment also manufactures and sells products, such as flooring trims under the Futura Transitions brand name; and structural aluminum framing systems under the TSLOTS brand name.
The High performance films segment produces surface protection films used for protecting components of flat panel and flexible displays that are used in televisions, monitors, notebooks, smart phones, tablets, e-readers, electronic shelf labels, and automobiles under the UltraMask, ForceField, ForceField PEARL, Pearl A, and Obsidian brands.
This segment provides adcanved packaging films for bathroom tissue and paper towels and films for other markets. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Tredegar Corporation (TG) currently trades at $5.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.40, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $12.47 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the $5.39 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.49, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.71 (bear) to $10.03 (bull), the price of $5.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Tredegar Corporation reported revenue of $723M in FY2025 versus $826M in FY2021, a compound −3.3%/yr. Reported net income was $33.5M in FY2025, compounding −12.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $188M Micro · P/E ratio 5.7 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.9400 · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 37%, TG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.71Fair Value $7.40Bull$10.03
Price $5.39 · Upside +37.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8061 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $31,160, on Aug 18, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $42,447.
SaleJames T. Gottwald10% owner28× since Nov 12, 2025: 465,074 shares, avg. $8.46$3.9MOct 20, 2026
SaleWilliam M Gottwald10% owner27× since Nov 12, 2025: 464,294 shares, avg. $8.46$3.9MOct 20, 2026
SaleJohn D Gottwald10% owner28× since Nov 12, 2025: 465,074 shares, avg. $8.46$3.9MOct 20, 2026
BuyArijit DasGuptaOfficer, Director3× since May 21, 2026: 4,000 shares, avg. $7.79$31,160Aug 18, 2026
SaleCarl E. Tack IIIDirector5,435 shares at $7.81$42,447May 18, 2026
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.5% vs 0.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+37.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)5.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.87× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.24× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.9× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tredegar Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TG
Frequently asked questions
Is Tredegar Corporation (TG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.40 versus a price of $5.39, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TG?
Our model-based fair value for Tredegar Corporation is $7.40 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.39.
What is the quality score of TG?
Tredegar Corporation has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.40 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.71, optimistic scenario $10.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tredegar Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.40, about +37% upside versus a price of $5.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.71, optimistic scenario $10.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Tredegar Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $782M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tredegar Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TG use?
Our models discount Tredegar Corporation at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tredegar Corporation that is +7.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tredegar Corporation (TG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tredegar Corporation grew -0.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tredegar Corporation (TG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tredegar Corporation (+7.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.38 %: that much free cash flow Tredegar Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tredegar Corporation it is $7.40 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $5.39. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tredegar Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TG trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.39, fair value $7.40, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.40). For Tredegar Corporation the two are $2.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tredegar Corporation worth?
The market values Tredegar Corporation at about $188M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $5.39; our models calculate a fair value of $7.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TG?
Our models span a range for Tredegar Corporation: cautious scenario $4.71, base $7.40, optimistic $10.03 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $5.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TG?
Tredegar Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.40 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TG?
The PEG ratio of Tredegar Corporation is 0.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tredegar Corporation (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TG from its 52-week high?
Tredegar Corporation trades at $5.39, about 48% below its 52-week high of $10.35 and at the low of $5.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tredegar Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tredegar Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $5.39, calculated fair value $7.40 (+37%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TG calculated?
We run Tredegar Corporation through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $7.40 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tredegar Corporation currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.39. Our model-based fair value is $7.40, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tredegar Corporation right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($4.71 to $10.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tredegar Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The market capitalisation of Tredegar Corporation is $188M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tredegar Corporation is 0.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Earnings per share at Tredegar Corporation are $0.9400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The net margin of Tredegar Corporation is 4.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tredegar Corporation is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tredegar Corporation is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
The operating margin of Tredegar Corporation is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Revenue at Tredegar Corporation is growing +20.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tredegar Corporation (TG)?
Earnings per share at Tredegar Corporation are growing +258% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tredegar Corporation (TG) carry?
The net debt of Tredegar Corporation is $41.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026