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Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Taseko Mines Ltd $0.83, price $9.06, upside -90.8%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · Home Canada · ISIN CA8765111064

TM Taseko Mines Ltd logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Taseko Mines Ltd

TGB · US

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.8330 · Strongly overvalued (−91%)
!Quality 18/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 9 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$9.68 $0.9100 Fair Value $0.8330 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9100 – $9.68 · fair‑value band $0.6545 – $0.9860 · the $9.06 price screens above the $0.8330 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Taseko Mines Limited, a mining company, acquires and develops mineral properties. It explores for copper, molybdenum, gold, niobium, and silver deposits. The company's principal assets consist of 100% owned the Gibraltar mine located in south-central British Columbia; and the Florence Copper project in Arizona.

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Taseko Mines Limited, a mining company, acquires and develops mineral properties. It explores for copper, molybdenum, gold, niobium, and silver deposits. The company's principal assets consist of 100% owned the Gibraltar mine located in south-central British Columbia; and the Florence Copper project in Arizona. It also owns interests in the Yellowhead copper, the New Prosperity gold-copper, and the Aley niobium projects located in British Columbia. Taseko Mines Limited was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) currently trades at $9.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8330, implying the stock looks roughly 988.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.88 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $9.06 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.43, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.6545 (bear) to $0.9860 (bull), the price of $9.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Taseko Mines Ltd reported revenue of C$673M in FY2025 versus C$433M in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was −C$30.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $3.2B · P/E ratio 226.5 · P/S ratio 3.53 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% · Operating margin 23.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 142% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −91%, TGB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.6545 Fair Value $0.8330 Bull $0.9860
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0293 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $1.68 $2.17 $2.59 74
ROIC Compounder $1.68 $2.24 $3.38 68
EV/EBITDA $3.54 $5.19 $6.84 66
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $1.68 $2.17 $2.59 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $2.56 $3.88 $5.20 65
EV/EBITDA $3.54 $5.19 $6.84 66
EV/Revenue $0.5300 $1.35 $2.18 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.06 $1.43 $2.13 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $1.68 $2.24 $3.38 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 18/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 4
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.4% (2020) → 20.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TGB screens 988% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 59 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 18 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −91% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 23% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 70% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.90× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 226.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.08× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.12× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 23.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.33× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)9 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)55 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $206.14 $160.86 −22%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $74.35 $21.93 −71%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$46.54 C$20.10 −57%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$35.81 C$39.39 +10%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥45.10 ¥25.98 −42%
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A KGH 347.25 PLN 156.67 PLN −55%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.16 ¥3.06 −50%
MMG Limited 1208 HK$8.76 HK$9.63 +10%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM $27.74 $21.23 −23%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥18.15 ¥6.39 −65%

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Taseko Mines Ltd · Fair Value
$0.8330 −988%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Taseko Mines Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGB

Frequently asked questions

Is Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8330 versus a price of $9.06, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TGB?
Our model-based fair value for Taseko Mines Ltd is $0.8330 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.06.
What is the quality score of TGB?
Taseko Mines Ltd has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8330 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.6545, optimistic scenario $0.9860. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Taseko Mines Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8330, about −91% upside versus a price of $9.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.6545, optimistic scenario $0.9860. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Taseko Mines Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$771M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Taseko Mines Ltd it is $0.8330 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.06. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Taseko Mines Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TGB trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.06, fair value $0.8330, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8330). For Taseko Mines Ltd the two are $8.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Taseko Mines Ltd worth?
The market values Taseko Mines Ltd at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.06; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8330 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGB?
Our models span a range for Taseko Mines Ltd: cautious scenario $0.6545, base $0.8330, optimistic $0.9860 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TGB?
Taseko Mines Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 226.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8330 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 4.1, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 23.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TGB?
The PEG ratio of Taseko Mines Ltd is 0.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Taseko Mines Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGB from its 52-week high?
Taseko Mines Ltd trades at $9.06, about 6% below its 52-week high of $9.68 and 142% above the low of $3.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8330 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Taseko Mines Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Taseko Mines Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.06, calculated fair value $0.8330 (−91%), Quality Score 18/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGB calculated?
We run Taseko Mines Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8330, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Taseko Mines Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $9.06. Our model-based fair value is $0.8330, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Taseko Mines Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9860). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Taseko Mines Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
The market capitalisation of Taseko Mines Ltd is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Taseko Mines Ltd is 3.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Earnings per share at Taseko Mines Ltd are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 226.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
The net margin of Taseko Mines Ltd is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Taseko Mines Ltd is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Taseko Mines Ltd is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
The operating margin of Taseko Mines Ltd is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Revenue at Taseko Mines Ltd is growing +70.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB)?
Earnings per share at Taseko Mines Ltd are growing −45.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) generate?
The free cash flow of Taseko Mines Ltd is −C$209M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) carry?
The net debt of Taseko Mines Ltd is C$559M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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