Taseko Mines Limited (TGB) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.7B
Taseko Mines Limited
TGB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +28.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9100 – $8.88 · fair‑value band $1.69 – $2.69 · the $8.32 price screens above the $1.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Taseko Mines Limited (TGB) currently trades at $8.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.90, implying the stock looks roughly 77.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Taseko Mines Limited generated revenue of $771M at a net margin of 2.0%. Revenue grew 70.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at $559M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.69 (bear case) to $2.69 (bull case); at $8.32, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 229% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -77%, TGB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($3.88) versus Asset-Based ($1.43). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Taseko Mines Limited, a mining company, acquires and develops mineral properties. It explores for copper, molybdenum, gold, niobium, and silver deposits. The company's principal assets consist of 100% owned the Gibraltar mine located in south-central British Columbia; and the Florence Copper project in Arizona.
Full company description
Taseko Mines Limited, a mining company, acquires and develops mineral properties. It explores for copper, molybdenum, gold, niobium, and silver deposits. The company's principal assets consist of 100% owned the Gibraltar mine located in south-central British Columbia; and the Florence Copper project in Arizona. It also owns interests in the Yellowhead copper, the New Prosperity gold-copper, and the Aley niobium projects located in British Columbia. Taseko Mines Limited was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Taseko Mines Limited reported revenue of $673M in FY2025 versus $433M in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.1M in FY2025.
TGB screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Taseko Annual General Meeting Voting Results and Change of Name
- How Taseko Mines (TGB) Is Turning Florence Copper Into a Domestic Supply Story for Electrification
- Taseko Mines (TGB) Gets 9.5% Boost from Expansion Plans
Peer Group
Copper · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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