Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tilaknagar Industries Limited ₹54.26, price ₹582, upside -90.7%, quality 19 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ₹54.26 · Strongly overvalued (−90.7%)
!Quality 19/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +33.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!0.2% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Trails peers(3/12)
!Narrow moat34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹36.67 – ₹601.50 · fair‑value band ₹17.95 – ₹54.26 · the ₹581.70 price screens above the ₹54.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of Indian made foreign liquor and its related products in India.
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Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of Indian made foreign liquor and its related products in India. The company offers brandy under the Mansion House and Courier Napoleon brands; rum under the Madiraa brand; whisky under the Mansion House and Senate Royale brands; and gin under the Blue Lagoon brand, as well as extra neutral alcohol and cocktails. It also exports its products in Africa, the Middle East, East and South-East Asia, and Europe. The company was incorporated in 1933 and is based in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) currently trades at ₹581.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹54.26, implying the stock looks roughly 971.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ₹80.82 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹581.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹9.99, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹17.95 (bear) to ₹54.26 (bull), the price of ₹581.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tilaknagar Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹23.5B in FY2026 versus ₹7.8B in FY2022, a compound +31.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹209M in FY2026, compounding −17.6%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap ₹126B (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 612.3 · P/S ratio 5.45 · EPS (TTM) ₹0.9500 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 41.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −91%, TI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹9.99 to ₹166.06). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹17.95Fair Value ₹54.26Bull ₹54.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−39.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2008 to 2013 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 20%
Compare Tilaknagar Industries Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 97 stocks
P/B4.24× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)5.39× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)4· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 62
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹54.26 versus a price of ₹581.70, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TI?
Our model-based fair value for Tilaknagar Industries Limited is ₹54.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹581.70.
What is the quality score of TI?
Tilaknagar Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹54.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹17.95, optimistic scenario ₹54.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tilaknagar Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹54.26, about −91% upside versus a price of ₹581.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹17.95, optimistic scenario ₹54.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Tilaknagar Industries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹23.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Tilaknagar Industries Limited pay a dividend?
Tilaknagar Industries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tilaknagar Industries Limited it is ₹54.26 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹581.70. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tilaknagar Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TI trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹581.70, fair value ₹54.26, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹581.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹54.26). For Tilaknagar Industries Limited the two are ₹527.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tilaknagar Industries Limited worth?
The market values Tilaknagar Industries Limited at about ₹126B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹581.70; our models calculate a fair value of ₹54.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TI?
Our models span a range for Tilaknagar Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹17.95, base ₹54.26, optimistic ₹54.26 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹581.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tilaknagar Industries Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TI from its 52-week high?
Tilaknagar Industries Limited trades at ₹581.70, about 3% below its 52-week high of ₹601.50 and 50% above the low of ₹388.80 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹54.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tilaknagar Industries Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tilaknagar Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹581.70, calculated fair value ₹54.26 (−91%), Quality Score 19/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TI calculated?
We run Tilaknagar Industries Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹54.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tilaknagar Industries Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was ₹581.70. Our model-based fair value is ₹54.26, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tilaknagar Industries Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹54.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (19/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (₹17.95 to ₹54.26). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Tilaknagar Industries Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The market capitalisation of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is ₹126B (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 612.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 5.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Earnings per share at Tilaknagar Industries Limited are ₹0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 612.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The dividend yield of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 0.2% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The net margin of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 0.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 41.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
The operating margin of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Revenue at Tilaknagar Industries Limited is growing +134% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI)?
Earnings per share at Tilaknagar Industries Limited are growing −10.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) generate?
The free cash flow of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is −₹7.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tilaknagar Industries Limited (TI) carry?
The net debt of Tilaknagar Industries Limited is ₹19.4B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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