PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk IDR 36, price IDR 166, upside -78.2%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 112.00 IDR – 2,730 IDR · fair‑value band 29.81 IDR – 45.58 IDR · the 166.00 IDR price screens above the 36.19 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk, together with its subsidiary, PT GED Lintas Indonesia, engages in the postal, courier, and logistics businesses in Indonesia.
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PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk, together with its subsidiary, PT GED Lintas Indonesia, engages in the postal, courier, and logistics businesses in Indonesia. The company offers GED courier services, which provide shipping through land, sea, and air deliveries; warehouse and fulfillment services; charter/trucking services, which include distribution supported by fleet management systems and real-time GPS monitoring systems; mover services, comprising cargo relocation solutions for homes, offices, and warehouses; and hand-carry delivery solutions. It also provides mailing room services; dedicated courier services; GED international shipping services that consist of air and sea transportation; GED special handling services for delivering dangerous goods, medical shipments, and valuable goods; and cold storage and reefer services for temperature-sensitive products, including pharmaceuticals, frozen food, and vaccines. In addition, the company provides postal services, including written communication, email, parcel delivery, and financial transactions. It provides delivery services under the Garuda Express Delivery (GED) brand. PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA) currently trades at 166.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 36.19 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 358.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 67.99 IDR per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 166.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 16.43 IDR, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 29.81 IDR (bear) to 45.58 IDR (bull), the price of 166.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk reported revenue of 73.8B IDR in FY2025 versus 76.4B IDR in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −915M IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 70.0B IDR (≈ $3.9M) · P/E ratio 51.7 · P/S ratio 0.77 · EPS (TTM) 3.21 IDR · Net margin −1.2% · Return on equity −9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin −21.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −78%, TNCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 29.81 IDRFair Value 36.19 IDRBull 45.58 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.38 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.2% (2020) → −0.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +51.5% a year for the price.
Compare PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 219 stocks
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Is PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 36.19 IDR versus a price of 166.00 IDR, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TNCA?
Our model-based fair value for PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is 36.19 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 166.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of TNCA?
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 36.19 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 29.81 IDR, optimistic scenario 45.58 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 36.19 IDR, about −78% upside versus a price of 166.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 29.81 IDR, optimistic scenario 45.58 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 74.0B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +55.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TNCA use?
Our models discount PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk that is +55.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk grew +1.4 % a year. The price currently implies +55.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (+55.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.59 %: that much free cash flow PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk it is 36.19 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 166.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TNCA trades above its calculated fair value: price 166.00 IDR, fair value 36.19 IDR, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (166.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (36.19 IDR). For PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk the two are 129.81 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk worth?
The market values PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk at about 70.0B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 166.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 36.19 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNCA?
Our models span a range for PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk: cautious scenario 29.81 IDR, base 36.19 IDR, optimistic 45.58 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 166.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TNCA?
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 51.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 36.19 IDR is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TNCA from its 52-week high?
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk trades at 166.00 IDR, about 45% below its 52-week high of 304.00 IDR and 33% above the low of 125.00 IDR (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 36.19 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 166.00 IDR, calculated fair value 36.19 IDR (−78%), Quality Score 53/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNCA calculated?
We run PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 36.19 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 166.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 36.19 IDR, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (45.58 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The market capitalisation of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is 70.0B IDR (≈ $3.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is 0.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
Earnings per share at PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk are 3.21 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 51.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The net margin of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is −1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is −9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
The operating margin of PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is −21.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
Revenue at PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA)?
Earnings per share at PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk are growing −57.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk (TNCA) hold?
PT Trimuda Nuansa Citra Tbk holds more cash than debt, 38.3M IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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