Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toll Brothers Inc stock $217, price $158, upside +36.8%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.84 – $165.20 · fair‑value band $132.00 – $358.24 · the $158.49 price screens below the $216.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living.
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The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities.
In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies.
Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations.
It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) currently trades at $158.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $216.77, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $279.02 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $158.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $72.65, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $132.00 (bear) to $358.24 (bull), the price of $158.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Toll Brothers Inc reported revenue of $11.0B in FY2025 versus $8.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.1B Large · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) $12.37 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 37%, TOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$132.00Fair Value $216.77Bull$358.24
Price $158.49 · Upside +36.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $13.4M and none bought.
SaleStephen F. EastDirector2× since Apr 15, 2026: 1,800 shares, avg. $138.05$248,492Sep 24, 2026
SaleRobert ParahusPresident & COO7,500 shares at $149.66$1.1MJun 18, 2026
SaleDouglas C. Yearley Jr.Executive Chairman, Director3× since Feb 24, 2026: 150,087 shares, avg. $158.20$23.7MJun 18, 2026
SaleJohn A McLeanDirector2,313 shares at $153.43$354,884Mar 4, 2026
SalePaul E ShapiroDirector3,965 shares at $146.68$581,586Jan 15, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+19.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.4% vs 21.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.9% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Toll Brothers sustains solid profitability via its focus on higher-end homes and steady margins, yet housing cyclicality combined with thin differentiation limits evidence of durable advantage.
Main risk: Persistent pressure from high interest rates and weak buyer sentiment would reduce demand for new luxury homes and hit delivery volumes as well as margin stability.
Toll Brothers raised its full-year delivery guidance on the back of sustained luxury demand from high-income buyers. The builder keeps opening new communities in multiple states while holding margins steady through its focus on higher-end homes. Can this targeted efficiency keep delivering results when broader housing markets stay under pressure from rates and sentiment?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)14.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $216.77 versus a price of $158.49, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOL?
Our model-based fair value for Toll Brothers Inc is $216.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $158.49.
What is the quality score of TOL?
Toll Brothers Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $216.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $132.00, optimistic scenario $358.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toll Brothers Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $216.77, about +37% upside versus a price of $158.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $132.00, optimistic scenario $358.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Toll Brothers Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Toll Brothers Inc pay a dividend?
Toll Brothers Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.64% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toll Brothers Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOL use?
Our models discount Toll Brothers Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toll Brothers Inc that is +6.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toll Brothers Inc grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +6.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toll Brothers Inc (+6.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.78 %: that much free cash flow Toll Brothers Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toll Brothers Inc it is $216.77 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $158.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TOL trades below its calculated fair value: price $158.49, fair value $216.77, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($158.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($216.77). For Toll Brothers Inc the two are $58.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toll Brothers Inc worth?
The market values Toll Brothers Inc at about $15.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $158.49; our models calculate a fair value of $216.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOL?
Our models span a range for Toll Brothers Inc: cautious scenario $132.00, base $216.77, optimistic $358.24 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $158.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOL?
Toll Brothers Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $216.77 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 7.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.8, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TOL?
The PEG ratio of Toll Brothers Inc is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toll Brothers Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 14.4%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOL from its 52-week high?
Toll Brothers Inc trades at $158.49, about 4% below its 52-week high of $165.20 and 28% above the low of $123.68 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $216.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toll Brothers Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $158.49, calculated fair value $216.77 (+37%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOL calculated?
We run Toll Brothers Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $216.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Toll Brothers Inc currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $158.49. Our model-based fair value is $216.77, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toll Brothers Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($132.00 to $358.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) come from?
Earnings per share at Toll Brothers Inc grew +23.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.2 %, EBIT margin +6.2 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Toll Brothers Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The market capitalisation of Toll Brothers Inc is $15.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toll Brothers Inc is 1.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Earnings per share at Toll Brothers Inc are $12.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The dividend yield of Toll Brothers Inc is 0.6% (payout 8.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The net margin of Toll Brothers Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toll Brothers Inc is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toll Brothers Inc is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
The operating margin of Toll Brothers Inc is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Revenue at Toll Brothers Inc is growing −9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)?
Earnings per share at Toll Brothers Inc are growing −20.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) carry?
The net debt of Toll Brothers Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026