Ternium SA (TXR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ternium SA stock ARS 18,781, price ARS 21,440, that is 12.4% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3,400 ARS – 25,429 ARS · fair‑value band 15,935 ARS – 21,083 ARS · the 21,440 ARS price screens above the 18,781 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.
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Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining.
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The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets.
It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.
Stock analysis
Ternium SA (TXR) currently trades at 21,440 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18,781 ARS, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 28,484 ARS per share, and 8 of the 14 models we run sit above the 21,440 ARS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4,739 ARS, and 6 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 15,935 ARS (bear) to 21,083 ARS (bull), the price of 21,440 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ternium SA DRC reported revenue of $15.6B in FY2025 versus $16.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $425M in FY2025, compounding −42.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.6T ARS (≈ $10.7B) Large · P/E ratio 8.8 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) 2,524 ARS · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 4.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −12%, TXR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear15,935 ARSFair Value 18,781 ARSBull21,083 ARS
Price 21,440 ARS · Downside -12.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,274 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 5%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 411 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−12.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ternium SA DRC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXR.BA
Frequently asked questions
Is Ternium SA (TXR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18,781 ARS versus a price of 21,440 ARS, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXR?
Our model-based fair value for Ternium SA DRC is 18,781 ARS (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21,440 ARS.
What is the quality score of TXR?
Ternium SA DRC has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ternium SA (TXR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18,781 ARS (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 15,935 ARS, optimistic scenario 21,083 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ternium SA DRC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18,781 ARS, about 12% lower versus a price of 21,440 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 15,935 ARS, optimistic scenario 21,083 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ternium SA (TXR)?
Ternium SA DRC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does Ternium SA DRC pay a dividend?
Ternium SA DRC currently shows a dividend yield of 4.75% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ternium SA (TXR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ternium SA DRC it is 18,781 ARS per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of 21,440 ARS. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ternium SA DRC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, TXR trades above its calculated fair value: price 21,440 ARS, fair value 18,781 ARS, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21,440 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18,781 ARS). For Ternium SA DRC the two are 2,659 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ternium SA DRC worth?
The market values Ternium SA DRC at about 16.6T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is 21,440 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 18,781 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXR?
Our models span a range for Ternium SA DRC: cautious scenario 15,935 ARS, base 18,781 ARS, optimistic 21,083 ARS per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price 21,440 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXR?
Ternium SA DRC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 (as of Oct 31, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 18,781 ARS is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 86.5 (reported for FY2025: 62.9). Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TXR?
The PEG ratio of Ternium SA DRC is 0.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 31, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ternium SA (TXR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ternium SA DRC (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity 4.4%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXR from its 52-week high?
Ternium SA DRC trades at 21,440 ARS, about 12% below its 52-week high of 24,270 ARS and 63% above the low of 13,160 ARS (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18,781 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ternium SA DRC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ternium SA DRC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price 21,440 ARS, calculated fair value 18,781 ARS (−12%), Quality Score 48/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXR calculated?
We run Ternium SA DRC through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18,781 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ternium SA DRC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was 21,440 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 18,781 ARS, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ternium SA DRC right now?
The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Ternium SA DRC
How large is the market capitalisation of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The market capitalisation of Ternium SA DRC is 16.6T ARS (≈ $10.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ternium SA DRC is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ternium SA (TXR)?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA DRC are 2,524 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The dividend yield of Ternium SA DRC is 4.8% (payout 171%, on adjusted earnings, reported 125%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The net margin of Ternium SA DRC is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ternium SA DRC is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ternium SA (TXR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ternium SA DRC is 12.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ternium SA (TXR)?
The operating margin of Ternium SA DRC is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ternium SA (TXR)?
Revenue at Ternium SA DRC is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ternium SA (TXR)?
Earnings per share at Ternium SA DRC are growing +59.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ternium SA (TXR) generate?
The free cash flow of Ternium SA DRC is −$187M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ternium SA (TXR) carry?
The net debt of Ternium SA DRC is $317M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 31, 2026