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United Paper Public Company (UTP) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · TH · Market cap 5.4B THB

UP United Paper Public Company UTP · BK
Price8.50 THB
Fair Value13.38 THB
Upside+57.4%
Quality70/100
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Weak Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
7.27% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Moderate moat 60/100
Evidence: High Range 10.03 THB – 16.72 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price +2.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 57% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (10.03 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

18.02 THB 6.68 THB Fair Value 13.38 THB Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 6.68 THB – 18.02 THB · fair‑value band 10.03 THB – 16.72 THB · the 8.50 THB price screens below the 13.38 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

United Paper Public Company (UTP) currently trades at 8.50 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.38 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, United Paper Public Company generated revenue of 3.8B THB at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.6B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 10.03 THB (bear case) to 16.72 THB (bull case); at 8.50 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 57%, UTP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 12.90 THB 16.89 THB 22.09 THB 80
Residual Income 6.57 THB 7.30 THB 10.23 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 9.54 THB 12.74 THB 16.20 THB 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 12.62 THB 16.92 THB 22.77 THB 38
Owner Earnings 11.28 THB 15.05 THB 20.16 THB 31
5Y Revenue Exit 9.54 THB 12.57 THB 16.22 THB 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 11.05 THB 15.25 THB 19.87 THB 41
5Y P/E Exit 11.49 THB 16.02 THB 20.49 THB 38
10Y Revenue Exit 10.47 THB 13.36 THB 16.78 THB 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 11.56 THB 15.12 THB 19.37 THB 37
10Y P/E Exit 11.83 THB 15.63 THB 19.81 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 5.35 THB 12.24 THB 15.69 THB 54
PEG = 1.0 2.04 THB 2.91 THB 3.79 THB 46
EPV 8.55 THB 9.58 THB 10.47 THB 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 5.27 THB 8.52 THB 12.12 THB 70
DDM Multi-Stage 5.27 THB 7.61 THB 10.10 THB 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 10.03 THB 13.38 THB 16.72 THB 63
P/S Multiple 6.45 THB 8.59 THB 10.74 THB 58
P/B Multiple 10.03 THB 13.38 THB 16.72 THB 55
EV/EBIT 11.65 THB 14.85 THB 18.06 THB 53
EV/EBITDA 11.27 THB 14.34 THB 17.42 THB 54
EV/Revenue 8.05 THB 10.63 THB 13.21 THB 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3.70 THB 4.96 THB 7.40 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 12.90 THB 16.89 THB 22.09 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 9.54 THB 12.74 THB 16.20 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 6.57 THB 7.30 THB 10.23 THB 76
ROIC Compounder 8.70 THB 10.12 THB 11.68 THB 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 7.65 THB 10.93 THB 14.21 THB 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (15.12 THB) versus Asset-Based (4.96 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 3.8B THB
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.5%
Net margin 14.6%
Return on equity 11.2%
Free cash flow 682M THB FY2025
P/E ratio 9.3
More key figures
Operating margin 20.2%
EPS (TTM) 0.8500 THB
Dividend yield 7.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +27.8%
Net cash 1.6B THB FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

United Paper Public Company Limited engages in the production and distribution of box surface paper and Kraft paper for packaging corrugated boxes in Thailand. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

United Paper Public Company reported revenue of 3.7B THB in FY2025 versus 4.6B THB in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 512M THB in FY2025, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.7B THB
Latest YoY
−5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Revenue −5.1%/yr
FY21 4.6B THB
FY22 5.0B THB
FY23 4.1B THB
FY24 3.9B THB
FY25 3.7B THB
Net income −13.6%/yr
FY21 917M THB
FY22 739M THB
FY23 876M THB
FY24 620M THB
FY25 512M THB
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +15.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +8.4 pp

of which total revenue +8.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +4.8 pp
Tax rate +1.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Paper Public Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UTP

Peer Group

Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +57% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.42× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 20
FUTURE 23 · sector 9
PAST 45 · sector 12
HEALTH 97 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Klabin S.A KLBN11 R$17.58 R$3.89 -78%
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €23.45 €15.47 -34%
Suzano S.A SUZB3 R$41.70 R$138.01 +231%
Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB kr 103.00 kr 49.40 -52%
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.13 ¥17.29 +22%
Holmen AB HOLMB kr 305.40 kr 217.72 -29%
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$7.55 HK$8.73 +16%
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 1,078 CLP 1,269 CLP +18%
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥22.05 ¥24.32 +10%
Billerud AB BILL kr 68.70 kr 48.60 -29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is United Paper Public Company (UTP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.38 THB versus a price of 8.50 THB, about +57% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UTP?
Our model-based fair value for United Paper Public Company is 13.38 THB (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 8.50 THB.
What is the quality score of UTP?
United Paper Public Company has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of United Paper Public Company (UTP)?
United Paper Public Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8B THB (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of UTP?
The net profit margin of United Paper Public Company is about 14.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does United Paper Public Company pay a dividend?
United Paper Public Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.55% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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