United Paper Public Company (UTP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · TH · Market cap 5.4B THB
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 57% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (10.03 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.68 THB – 18.02 THB · fair‑value band 10.03 THB – 16.72 THB · the 8.50 THB price screens below the 13.38 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
United Paper Public Company (UTP) currently trades at 8.50 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.38 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, United Paper Public Company generated revenue of 3.8B THB at a net margin of 14.6%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.6B THB. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 10.03 THB (bear case) to 16.72 THB (bull case); at 8.50 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 57%, UTP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (15.12 THB) versus Asset-Based (4.96 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
United Paper Public Company Limited engages in the production and distribution of box surface paper and Kraft paper for packaging corrugated boxes in Thailand. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
United Paper Public Company reported revenue of 3.7B THB in FY2025 versus 4.6B THB in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 512M THB in FY2025, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch UTP: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥22.05 | ¥24.32 | +10% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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