United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of United Paper Public Company Limited THB 14.64, price THB 9.25, upside +58.3%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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United Paper Public Company Limited engages in the production and distribution of box surface paper and Kraft paper for packaging corrugated boxes in Thailand. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) currently trades at 9.25 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.64 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 36.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 13.38 THB per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the 9.25 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 4.96 THB, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 12.12 THB (bear) to 17.41 THB (bull), the price of 9.25 THB sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
United Paper Public Company Limited reported revenue of 3.7B THB in FY2025 versus 4.6B THB in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 512M THB in FY2025, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.0B THB (≈ $180M) · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 1.49 · EPS (TTM) 0.8500 THB · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 58%, UTP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 12.12 THBFair Value 14.64 THBBull 17.41 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1836 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs 10%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.0% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 121 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+58% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Paper Public Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UTP
Frequently asked questions
Is United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.64 THB versus a price of 9.25 THB, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of UTP?
Our model-based fair value for United Paper Public Company Limited is 14.64 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.25 THB.
What is the quality score of UTP?
United Paper Public Company Limited has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 14.64 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 12.12 THB, optimistic scenario 17.41 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Paper Public Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 14.64 THB, about +58% upside versus a price of 9.25 THB (undervalued). Cautious scenario 12.12 THB, optimistic scenario 17.41 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
United Paper Public Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.8B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does United Paper Public Company Limited pay a dividend?
United Paper Public Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, United Paper Public Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -6.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UTP use?
Our models discount United Paper Public Company Limited at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For United Paper Public Company Limited that is -6.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at United Paper Public Company Limited grew +0.9 % a year. The price currently implies -6.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into United Paper Public Company Limited (-6.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.34 %: that much free cash flow United Paper Public Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Paper Public Company Limited it is 14.64 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 9.25 THB. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Paper Public Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, UTP trades below its calculated fair value: price 9.25 THB, fair value 14.64 THB, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UTP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.25 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (14.64 THB). For United Paper Public Company Limited the two are 5.39 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Paper Public Company Limited worth?
The market values United Paper Public Company Limited at about 6.0B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 9.25 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 14.64 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UTP?
Our models span a range for United Paper Public Company Limited: cautious scenario 12.12 THB, base 14.64 THB, optimistic 17.41 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 9.25 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UTP?
United Paper Public Company Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 14.64 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Paper Public Company Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UTP from its 52-week high?
United Paper Public Company Limited trades at 9.25 THB, about 3% below its 52-week high of 9.50 THB and 30% above the low of 7.11 THB (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 14.64 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Paper Public Company Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Paper Public Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 9.25 THB, calculated fair value 14.64 THB (+58%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UTP calculated?
We run United Paper Public Company Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 14.64 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. United Paper Public Company Limited currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 9.25 THB. Our model-based fair value is 14.64 THB, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Paper Public Company Limited right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (12.12 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) come from?
Earnings per share at United Paper Public Company Limited grew +15.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of United Paper Public Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The market capitalisation of United Paper Public Company Limited is 6.0B THB (≈ $180M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Paper Public Company Limited is 1.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
Earnings per share at United Paper Public Company Limited are 0.8500 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The dividend yield of United Paper Public Company Limited is 6.5% (payout 70.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The net margin of United Paper Public Company Limited is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Paper Public Company Limited is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Paper Public Company Limited is 17.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
The operating margin of United Paper Public Company Limited is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
Revenue at United Paper Public Company Limited is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP)?
Earnings per share at United Paper Public Company Limited are growing +27.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does United Paper Public Company Limited (UTP) hold?
United Paper Public Company Limited holds more cash than debt, 1.6B THB net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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