Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd A$6.36, price A$2.88, upside +120.8%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range A$2.16 – A$3.72 · fair‑value band A$5.11 – A$8.26 · the A$2.88 price screens below the A$6.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Virgin Australia Holdings Limited provides domestic and international travel services to leisure, corporate and government, regional and charter travel, and air freight customers in Australia. It operates through the Airlines and Velocity segments.
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Virgin Australia Holdings Limited provides domestic and international travel services to leisure, corporate and government, regional and charter travel, and air freight customers in Australia. It operates through the Airlines and Velocity segments. The company offers regular passenger transport and short-haul international regular public transport services, charter services, and loyalty programs. It also provides cargo and travel insurance services. The company has strategic alliances with Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, United Airlines, Air Canada, Air New Zealand, Hawaiian Airline, and All Nippon Airways. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in South Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN) currently trades at A$2.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$6.36, implying the stock looks roughly 54.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$8.07 per share, and 21 of the 21 models we run sit above the A$2.88 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$4.95, and 0 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$5.11 (bear) to A$8.26 (bull), the price of A$2.88 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$3.8B in FY2025 versus A$1,000M in FY2021, a compound +39.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$314M in FY2025, compounding −42.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.1B (≈ $1.5B) · P/E ratio 6.0 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) A$0.4800 · Dividend yield 3.2% · Net margin 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5% · Operating margin 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 121%, VGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$5.11Fair Value A$6.36Bull A$8.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.4800 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+40.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.2%
Profit margin 2003 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.8% a year for the price and +23.4% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+144% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)6.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.25× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF4.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA2.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 61
FUTURE (revenue growth)45· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)65· sector 48
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$6.36 versus a price of A$2.88, about +121% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VGN?
Our model-based fair value for Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is A$6.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.88.
What is the quality score of VGN?
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$6.36 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.11, optimistic scenario A$8.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$6.36, about +121% upside versus a price of A$2.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$5.11, optimistic scenario A$8.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$6.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VGN use?
Our models discount Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd that is -5.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies -5.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (-5.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.46 %: that much free cash flow Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd it is A$6.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$2.88. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VGN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$2.88, fair value A$6.36, a gap of about +121% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$6.36). For Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd the two are A$3.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd at about A$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$2.88; our models calculate a fair value of A$6.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VGN?
Our models span a range for Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.11, base A$6.36, optimistic A$8.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$2.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VGN?
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$6.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VGN from its 52-week high?
Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd trades at A$2.88, about 23% below its 52-week high of A$3.72 and 33% above the low of A$2.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$6.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$2.88, calculated fair value A$6.36 (+121%), Quality Score 50/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VGN calculated?
We run Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$6.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd currently trades 121 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$2.88. Our model-based fair value is A$6.36, about +121% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$5.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The market capitalisation of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is A$2.1B (≈ $1.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is 0.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Earnings per share at Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd are A$0.4800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The dividend yield of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is 3.2% (payout 19.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The net margin of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is 8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
The operating margin of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Revenue at Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN)?
Earnings per share at Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd are growing −33.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN) carry?
The net debt of Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd is A$826M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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