Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$2.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −5.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 193% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$6.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (13 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
13‑month range A$2.16 – A$3.72 · fair‑value band A$6.30 – A$10.49 · the A$2.86 price screens below the A$8.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN) currently trades at A$2.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$8.39, implying the stock looks roughly 193.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Virgin Australia Holdings generated revenue of A$6.1B at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue grew 8.9% year over year. Net debt stands at A$826M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 5.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$6.30 (bear case) to A$10.49 (bull case); at A$2.86, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 193%, VGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (A$8.26) versus Earnings-Based (A$3.97). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited provides domestic and international travel services to leisure, corporate and government, regional and charter travel, and air freight customers in Australia. It operates through the Airlines and Velocity segments.
Full company description
Virgin Australia Holdings Limited provides domestic and international travel services to leisure, corporate and government, regional and charter travel, and air freight customers in Australia. It operates through the Airlines and Velocity segments. The company offers regular passenger transport and short-haul international regular public transport services, charter services, and loyalty programs. It also provides cargo and travel insurance services. The company has strategic alliances with Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, United Airlines, Air Canada, Air New Zealand, Hawaiian Airline, and All Nippon Airways. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in South Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Virgin Australia Holdings reported revenue of A$3.8B in FY2025 versus A$1,000M in FY2021, a compound +39.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$314M in FY2025, compounding −42.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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