Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V MXN 30.29, price MXN 11.90, upside +154.5%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.13 MXN – 45.81 MXN · fair‑value band 23.88 MXN – 36.71 MXN · the 11.90 MXN price screens below the 30.29 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally.
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Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America. It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) currently trades at 11.90 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 30.29 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 60.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 5.03 MXN per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the 11.90 MXN price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 3.46 MXN, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 23.88 MXN (bear) to 36.71 MXN (bull), the price of 11.90 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $45.1B in FY2021, a compound −49.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$104M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 17.1B MXN (≈ $975M) · P/S ratio 5.45 · EPS (TTM) −4.56 MXN · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity −47.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $3.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 155%, VOLARA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 23.88 MXNFair Value 30.29 MXNBull 36.71 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −16.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.7% (2020) → 3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 60 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside+155% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VOLARA
Frequently asked questions
Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 30.29 MXN versus a price of 11.90 MXN, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VOLARA?
Our model-based fair value for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 30.29 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11.90 MXN.
What is the quality score of VOLARA?
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 30.29 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 23.88 MXN, optimistic scenario 36.71 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 30.29 MXN, about +155% upside versus a price of 11.90 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 23.88 MXN, optimistic scenario 36.71 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V it is 30.29 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 11.90 MXN. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VOLARA trades below its calculated fair value: price 11.90 MXN, fair value 30.29 MXN, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VOLARA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11.90 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (30.29 MXN). For Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V the two are 18.39 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V at about 17.1B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 11.90 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 30.29 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VOLARA?
Our models span a range for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 23.88 MXN, base 30.29 MXN, optimistic 36.71 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 11.90 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VOLARA?
The PEG ratio of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 13.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −47.6%, debt of 1.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VOLARA from its 52-week high?
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V trades at 11.90 MXN, about 35% below its 52-week high of 18.40 MXN and 10% above the low of 10.81 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 30.29 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 11.90 MXN, calculated fair value 30.29 MXN (+155%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VOLARA calculated?
We run Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 30.29 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 155 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 11.90 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 30.29 MXN, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (23.88 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The market capitalisation of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 17.1B MXN (≈ $975M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 5.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Earnings per share at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V are −4.56 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The net margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is −3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is −47.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The operating margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Revenue at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Earnings per share at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V are growing −91.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) generate?
The free cash flow of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is $434M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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