Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock MXN 32.35, price MXN 14.76, upside +119.2%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 7.13 MXN – 45.81 MXN · fair‑value band 25.50 MXN – 39.19 MXN · the 14.76 MXN price screens below the 32.35 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally.
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The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America.
It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines.
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) currently trades at 14.76 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32.35 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 54% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 147.94 MXN per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the 14.76 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 15.44 MXN, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 25.50 MXN (bear) to 39.19 MXN (bull), the price of 14.76 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $45.1B in FY2021, a compound −49.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$104M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 17.0B MXN (≈ $910M) Small · P/S ratio 3.87 · EPS (TTM) −3.39 MXN · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity −145% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.3% · Revenue (TTM) $3.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 119%, VOLARA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear25.50 MXNFair Value 32.35 MXNBull39.19 MXN
Price 14.76 MXN · Upside +119.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −16.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.7% (2020) → 3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.2% a year for the price.
Compare Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+119.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−6.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.67× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VOLARA
Frequently asked questions
Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32.35 MXN versus a price of 14.76 MXN, about +119% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VOLARA?
Our model-based fair value for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 32.35 MXN (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.76 MXN.
What is the quality score of VOLARA?
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 32.35 MXN (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.50 MXN, optimistic scenario 39.19 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 32.35 MXN, about +119% upside versus a price of 14.76 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 25.50 MXN, optimistic scenario 39.19 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by -28.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -32.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VOLARA use?
Our models discount Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V that is -28.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V grew -32.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -28.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (-28.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 47.71 %: that much free cash flow Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V it is 32.35 MXN per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 14.76 MXN. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, VOLARA trades below its calculated fair value: price 14.76 MXN, fair value 32.35 MXN, a gap of about +119% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VOLARA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.76 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (32.35 MXN). For Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V the two are 17.59 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V at about 17.0B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 14.76 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 32.35 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VOLARA?
Our models span a range for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 25.50 MXN, base 32.35 MXN, optimistic 39.19 MXN per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 14.76 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VOLARA?
The PEG ratio of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 13.46 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −145.1%, debt of 1.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VOLARA from its 52-week high?
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V trades at 14.76 MXN, about 20% below its 52-week high of 18.40 MXN and 43% above the low of 10.33 MXN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 32.35 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 14.76 MXN, calculated fair value 32.35 MXN (+119%), Quality Score 39/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VOLARA calculated?
We run Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V through 14 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 32.35 MXN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 54% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 14.76 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 32.35 MXN, about +119% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (25.50 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The market capitalisation of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 17.0B MXN (≈ $910M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 3.87 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Earnings per share at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V are −3.39 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The net margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is −3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is −145% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
The operating margin of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Revenue at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V is growing +32.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V (VOLARA)?
Earnings per share at Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación S.A.B. de C.V are growing −91.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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