Vera Bradley, Inc (VRA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $110M
Vera Bradley, Inc
VRA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −9.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.39 to $4.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.73 – $13.54 · fair‑value band $1.39 – $4.16 · the $3.47 price screens above the $2.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Vera Bradley, Inc (VRA) currently trades at $3.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.78, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vera Bradley, Inc generated revenue of $274M at a net margin of -7.0%. Revenue grew 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -14.1%. Net debt stands at $52.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.39 (bear case) to $4.16 (bull case); at $3.47, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 150% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -20%, VRA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($3.90) versus Dividend Discount ($0.4700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vera Bradley, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures women's handbags, luggage and travel items, fashion and home accessories, and gifts in the United States. It operates through two segments, Vera Bradley Direct and Vera Bradley Indirect.
Full company description
Vera Bradley, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures women's handbags, luggage and travel items, fashion and home accessories, and gifts in the United States. It operates through two segments, Vera Bradley Direct and Vera Bradley Indirect. The company offers bag products, such as backpacks, totes, crossbodies, lunch bags, satchels, clutches, and baby bags; accessories, including ID holders, lanyards, wallets, wristlets, eyewear, various technology accessories, and bag charms. It also provides travel products comprising rolling luggage, cosmetics, travel and packing accessories, and travel bags, which include duffel and weekend bags; home products, such as textiles, throw blankets, beach towels, bedding, mugs, and tumblers; sleepwear, outerwear, slippers, and socks under the Vera Bradley brand; and stationery, licensing, freight, merchandising, and gift card breakage services. The company sells its Vera Bradley branded products through its full-line and outlet stores in the United States; e-commerce sites, such as verabradley.com, outlet.verabradley.com, and international.verabradley.com; direct to consumer marketplaces; and its annual outlet sale in Fort Wayne, Indiana, as well as through specialty retail locations, department stores, national accounts, third-party inventory liquidators, and through licensing agreements. Vera Bradley, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Roanoke, Indiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Vera Bradley, Inc reported revenue of $270M in FY2026 versus $540M in FY2022, a compound −16.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$47.8M in FY2026.
VRA screens 20% overvalued. Compare with NIKE, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vera Bradley Posts Reduced Q1 Loss, Sees Progress
- Vera Bradley, Inc. Q1 2027 Earnings Call Summary
- Vera Bradley (VRA) Q1 2027 Earnings Transcript
- Vera Bradley Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Footwear & Accessories · 94 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Footwear & Accessories stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc NKE | $44.37 | $35.63 | -20% |
| adidas AG 1ADS | €165.00 | €65.71 | -60% |
| Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK | $106.49 | $125.16 | +18% |
| On Holding ONON | $38.20 | $17.64 | -54% |
| Zhejiang China Commodities City Group 600415 | ¥12.11 | ¥13.03 | +8% |
| Birkenstock Holding BIRK | $44.36 | $44.14 | -0% |
| Crocs, Inc CROX | $138.91 | $203.65 | +47% |
| Huali Industrial Group 300979 | ¥31.10 | ¥54.71 | +76% |
| PUMA SE PUM | €29.31 | €10.57 | -64% |
| Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO | $43.26 | $11.69 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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