Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Vulcan Steel Ltd A$2.36, price A$5.59, upside -57.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range A$4.70 – A$8.66 · fair‑value band A$1.78 – A$2.95 · the A$5.59 price screens above the A$2.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Vulcan Steel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of steel and metal products in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Steel and Metals segments.
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Vulcan Steel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of steel and metal products in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Steel and Metals segments. The company sells steel hollows; merchant products, including bars, angles, beams, channels, and unprocessed coils and plates; stainless steel products, such as fittings and sheets; and high-performance steel and metal products. It also offers processing services including cutting, drilling, tapping, countersinking, and folding of plates, as well as sheeting and slitting services. In addition, it distributes aluminium sheet, plate, and coil. Vulcan Steel Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL) currently trades at A$5.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.36, implying the stock looks roughly 137.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$3.28 per share, and 2 of the 20 models we run sit above the A$5.59 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.7800, and 18 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.78 (bear) to A$2.95 (bull), the price of A$5.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vulcan Steel Ltd reported revenue of 948M NZD in FY2025 versus 731M NZD in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 15.7M NZD in FY2025, compounding −28.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$744M (≈ $524M) · P/E ratio 62.1 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0900 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −58%, VSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.78Fair Value A$2.36Bull A$2.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.2% a year for the price and +9.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−58% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.47× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)62.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.09× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF6.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)43· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)26· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)21· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.36 versus a price of A$5.59, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VSL?
Our model-based fair value for Vulcan Steel Ltd is A$2.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$5.59.
What is the quality score of VSL?
Vulcan Steel Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.78, optimistic scenario A$2.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vulcan Steel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.36, about −58% upside versus a price of A$5.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.78, optimistic scenario A$2.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Vulcan Steel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$991M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Vulcan Steel Ltd pay a dividend?
Vulcan Steel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vulcan Steel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VSL use?
Our models discount Vulcan Steel Ltd at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vulcan Steel Ltd that is +2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vulcan Steel Ltd grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vulcan Steel Ltd (+2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.24 %: that much free cash flow Vulcan Steel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vulcan Steel Ltd it is A$2.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$5.59. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vulcan Steel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VSL trades above its calculated fair value: price A$5.59, fair value A$2.36, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$5.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.36). For Vulcan Steel Ltd the two are A$3.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vulcan Steel Ltd worth?
The market values Vulcan Steel Ltd at about A$744M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$5.59; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VSL?
Our models span a range for Vulcan Steel Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.78, base A$2.36, optimistic A$2.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$5.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VSL?
Vulcan Steel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vulcan Steel Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 1.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VSL from its 52-week high?
Vulcan Steel Ltd trades at A$5.59, about 28% below its 52-week high of A$7.77 and 19% above the low of A$4.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vulcan Steel Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vulcan Steel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$5.59, calculated fair value A$2.36 (−58%), Quality Score 52/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VSL calculated?
We run Vulcan Steel Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Vulcan Steel Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$5.59. Our model-based fair value is A$2.36, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vulcan Steel Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Vulcan Steel Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The market capitalisation of Vulcan Steel Ltd is A$744M (≈ $524M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vulcan Steel Ltd is 1.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Earnings per share at Vulcan Steel Ltd are A$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The dividend yield of Vulcan Steel Ltd is 1.1% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The net margin of Vulcan Steel Ltd is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vulcan Steel Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vulcan Steel Ltd is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
The operating margin of Vulcan Steel Ltd is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Revenue at Vulcan Steel Ltd is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL)?
Earnings per share at Vulcan Steel Ltd are growing −16.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vulcan Steel Ltd (VSL) carry?
The net debt of Vulcan Steel Ltd is A$528M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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