Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$755M
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from A$1.82 to A$2.47 (+35.7%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +15.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range A$4.70 – A$8.66 · fair‑value band A$1.84 – A$3.08 · the A$5.60 price screens above the A$2.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Vulcan Steel Limited (VSL) currently trades at A$5.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.47, implying the stock looks roughly 55.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vulcan Steel Limited generated revenue of A$991M at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. Net debt stands at A$528M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.84 (bear case) to A$3.08 (bull case); at A$5.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -56%, VSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$2.68) versus Asset-Based (A$0.7800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vulcan Steel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of steel and metal products in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Steel and Metals segments.
Full company description
Vulcan Steel Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sale and distribution of steel and metal products in New Zealand and Australia. It operates through Steel and Metals segments. The company sells steel hollows; merchant products, including bars, angles, beams, channels, and unprocessed coils and plates; stainless steel products, such as fittings and sheets; and high-performance steel and metal products. It also offers processing services including cutting, drilling, tapping, countersinking, and folding of plates, as well as sheeting and slitting services. In addition, it distributes aluminium sheet, plate, and coil. Vulcan Steel Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vulcan Steel Limited reported revenue of A$948M in FY2025 versus A$731M in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$15.7M in FY2025, compounding −28.8%/yr from FY2021.
VSL screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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