Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Welspun Corp Limited ₹810, price ₹2,606, upside -68.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹103.65 – ₹2,842 · fair‑value band ₹439.56 – ₹1,217 · the ₹2,606 price screens above the ₹810.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Welspun Corp Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, trades in, distributes, and sells steel pipes, tubes, bars, coils, and plates in India, the United States, and internationally. It operates through Steel Products and Others segments.
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Welspun Corp Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, trades in, distributes, and sells steel pipes, tubes, bars, coils, and plates in India, the United States, and internationally. It operates through Steel Products and Others segments. The company offers carbon steel line pipes comprising longitudinal submerged arc welding, helically submerged arc welding, high frequency welding, bends, and anti-corrosion and concrete weight coating; ductile iron pipes; thermo-mechanically treated bars; pig iron products; stainless steel and alloy products; water tanks; industrial containers; SMC panel tanks; electrical enclosures; and uPVC interiors. It also provides plastic products; basic precious and non-ferrous metals; prefabricated structures, infra project services, and turnkey projects; custom moulded products; polymers and its products; PVC/CPVC pipes and fittings for water supply; water pipes; and billet, rolled bar, black bar, ingot, bloom, and seamless pipes and tubes. The company's products are used in onshore and offshore oil, gas, and water transmission; gas distribution; households, commercial buildings, and institutional settings; hydrogen pipelines; and nuclear, space, defence, power and energy, and petrochemicals sectors. The company was formerly known as Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren Limited and changed its name to Welspun Corp Limited in April 2010. Welspun Corp Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Stock analysis
Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) currently trades at ₹2,606, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹810.45, 68.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹996.63 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹2,606 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹232.62, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹439.56 (bear) to ₹1,217 (bull), the price of ₹2,606 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Welspun Corp Limited reported revenue of ₹168B in FY2026 versus ₹63.3B in FY2022, a compound +27.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹16.1B in FY2026, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹747B (≈ $7.8B) · P/E ratio 29.8 · P/S ratio 2.86 · EPS (TTM) ₹87.50 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 262% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −69%, WELCORP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹439.56Fair Value ₹810.45Bull ₹1,217
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹42.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.5% vs 37.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 11%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+27.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +42.8% a year for the price and +22.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−68.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)13.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)29.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.16× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.32× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF132.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA30.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)75· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)76· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹810.45 versus a price of ₹2,606, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WELCORP?
Our model-based fair value for Welspun Corp Limited is ₹810.45 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹2,606.
What is the quality score of WELCORP?
Welspun Corp Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹810.45 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹439.56, optimistic scenario ₹1,217. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Welspun Corp Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹810.45, about −69% upside versus a price of ₹2,606 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹439.56, optimistic scenario ₹1,217. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Welspun Corp Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹173B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Welspun Corp Limited pay a dividend?
Welspun Corp Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Welspun Corp Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +48.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WELCORP use?
Our models discount Welspun Corp Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Welspun Corp Limited that is +48.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Welspun Corp Limited grew +19.8 % a year. The price currently implies +48.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Welspun Corp Limited (+48.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.82 %: that much free cash flow Welspun Corp Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Welspun Corp Limited it is ₹810.45 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹2,606. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Welspun Corp Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, WELCORP trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹2,606, fair value ₹810.45, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WELCORP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹2,606); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹810.45). For Welspun Corp Limited the two are ₹1,795 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Welspun Corp Limited worth?
The market values Welspun Corp Limited at about ₹747B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹2,606; our models calculate a fair value of ₹810.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WELCORP?
Our models span a range for Welspun Corp Limited: cautious scenario ₹439.56, base ₹810.45, optimistic ₹1,217 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹2,606). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WELCORP?
Welspun Corp Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹810.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.2, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 30.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Welspun Corp Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 18.9%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WELCORP from its 52-week high?
Welspun Corp Limited trades at ₹2,606, about 8% below its 52-week high of ₹2,842 and 262% above the low of ₹719.46 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹810.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Welspun Corp Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Welspun Corp Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹2,606, calculated fair value ₹810.45 (−69%), Quality Score 52/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WELCORP calculated?
We run Welspun Corp Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹810.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Welspun Corp Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹2,606. Our model-based fair value is ₹810.45, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Welspun Corp Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹1,217). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹439.56 to ₹1,217). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) come from?
Earnings per share at Welspun Corp Limited grew +38.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin +12.3 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Welspun Corp Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The market capitalisation of Welspun Corp Limited is ₹747B (≈ $7.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Welspun Corp Limited is 2.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Earnings per share at Welspun Corp Limited are ₹87.50 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The dividend yield of Welspun Corp Limited is 0.2% (payout 5.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The net margin of Welspun Corp Limited is 9.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Welspun Corp Limited is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Welspun Corp Limited is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
The operating margin of Welspun Corp Limited is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Revenue at Welspun Corp Limited is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP)?
Earnings per share at Welspun Corp Limited are growing +198% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Welspun Corp Limited (WELCORP) carry?
The net debt of Welspun Corp Limited is ₹8.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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