Wingstop Inc (WING) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.1B
Wingstop Inc
WING · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −26.3% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($43.51 to $118.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $67.83 – $424.73 · fair‑value band $43.51 – $118.75 · the $116.82 price screens above the $87.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Wingstop Inc (WING) currently trades at $116.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $87.00, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Wingstop Inc generated revenue of $709M at a net margin of 15.8%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. Net debt stands at $1.1B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 37.3. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $43.51 (bear case) to $118.75 (bull case); at $116.82, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -26%, WING screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($206.07) versus Dividend Discount ($17.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand in United States, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, and The Netherlands.
Full company description
Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand in United States, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, and The Netherlands. Its restaurants provides classic wings, boneless wings, tenders, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors, as well as chicken sandwiches, fries, and hand-cut carrots and celery that are cooked-to-order. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Wingstop Inc reported revenue of $697M in FY2025 versus $283M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was $174M in FY2025, compounding +42.2%/yr from FY2021.
WING screens 26% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Wingstop Saddles Up for the Flavor Rodeo with BBQ Favorites, Carolina Gold and Jamaican Jerk
- WING Q2 Deep Dive: Value Promotions, Loyalty Launch, and Urban Market Challenges
- Wingstop UK sales surge 75% as chain opens more new restaurants
- Is Wingstop (WING) Stock Still Below Fair Value After Sales Slipped?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
Compare Wingstop Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Wingstop Inc (WING) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of WING?
What is the quality score of WING?
What is the revenue of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
What is the net profit margin of WING?
Does Wingstop Inc pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Wingstop Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.