Wingstop Inc (WING) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Wingstop Inc stock $172, price $163, upside +5.3%, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $67.64 – $423.50 · fair‑value band $59.66 – $239.60 · the $163.28 price screens below the $172.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Wingstop Inc., together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates restaurants under the Wingstop brand in United States, Australia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, and The Netherlands.
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Its restaurants provides classic wings, boneless wings, tenders, and hand-sauced-and-tossed in various flavors, as well as chicken sandwiches, fries, and hand-cut carrots and celery that are cooked-to-order. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Wingstop Inc (WING) currently trades at $163.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $172.00, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 5.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $207.44 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $163.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $18.23, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $59.66 (bear) to $239.60 (bull), the price of $163.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Wingstop Inc reported revenue of $697M in FY2025 versus $283M in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was $174M in FY2025, compounding +42.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.4B Mid · P/E ratio 38.2 · P/S ratio 6.10 · EPS (TTM) $4.27 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 26.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 27.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 5%, WING screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$59.66Fair Value $172.00Bull$239.60
Price $163.28 · Upside +5.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.60 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $661,075 and none bought.
SaleRaj KapoorSVP, Chief Operating Officer2,500 shares at $163.61$409,025Nov 2, 2026
SaleWesley S McDonaldDirector2× since Feb 23, 2026: 2,086 shares, avg. $173.57$362,067Oct 30, 2026
SaleChristopher FallonFormer SVP & CIO2× since Mar 10, 2026: 427 shares, avg. $165.25$70,561May 12, 2026
SaleKilandigalu MadatiDirector2× since Nov 25, 2025: 2,969 shares, avg. $260.66$773,903Feb 25, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+48.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+47.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.51.3% vs 32.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 28%
2025 sits 164% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.1% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat potential from pricing power and franchise processes forms the main strength, while negative equity with high leverage stands as the chief weakness.
Main risk: Continued softer traffic and consumer caution threaten to keep domestic same-store sales under pressure and hit revenue at existing locations.
Wingstop keeps adding stores at a fast clip while domestic same-store sales have declined amid softer traffic and consumer caution. The company is rolling out its Club Wingstop loyalty program and speed-of-service tools to lift frequency. Will these steps turn comparable sales around, or will the pressures on existing locations continue to offset the new openings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+5.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets25.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)27.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)38.2× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wingstop Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WING
Frequently asked questions
Is Wingstop Inc (WING) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $172.00 versus a price of $163.28, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WING?
Our model-based fair value for Wingstop Inc is $172.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $163.28.
What is the quality score of WING?
Wingstop Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $172.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $59.66, optimistic scenario $239.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wingstop Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $172.00, about +5% upside versus a price of $163.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $59.66, optimistic scenario $239.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Wingstop Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $730M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Wingstop Inc pay a dividend?
Wingstop Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Wingstop Inc (WING) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Wingstop Inc pays a dividend of $1.23 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2016. The payout ratio is 44.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 28.8%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.17 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Wingstop Inc (WING)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wingstop Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +33.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WING use?
Our models discount Wingstop Inc at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wingstop Inc that is +33.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wingstop Inc (WING) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wingstop Inc grew +22.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +33.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wingstop Inc (WING) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wingstop Inc (+33.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.37 %: that much free cash flow Wingstop Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wingstop Inc it is $172.00 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $163.28. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Wingstop Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, WING trades below its calculated fair value: price $163.28, fair value $172.00, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WING?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($163.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($172.00). For Wingstop Inc the two are $8.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wingstop Inc worth?
The market values Wingstop Inc at about $4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $163.28; our models calculate a fair value of $172.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WING?
Our models span a range for Wingstop Inc: cautious scenario $59.66, base $172.00, optimistic $239.60 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $163.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WING?
Wingstop Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $172.00 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 40.0 (reported for FY2025: 26.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016, FY2017, FY2025 ex one-offs: 82.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/S 6.1, EV/EBITDA 23.2.
What is the PEG ratio of WING?
The PEG ratio of Wingstop Inc is 1.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wingstop Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WING from its 52-week high?
Wingstop Inc trades at $163.28, about 42% below its 52-week high of $282.76 and 67% above the low of $97.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $172.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wingstop Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wingstop Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $163.28, calculated fair value $172.00 (+5%), Quality Score 79/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WING calculated?
We run Wingstop Inc through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $172.00 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Wingstop Inc currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $163.28. Our model-based fair value is $172.00, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wingstop Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($59.66 to $239.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Wingstop Inc (WING) come from?
Earnings per share at Wingstop Inc grew +29.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +24.2 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Wingstop Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The market capitalisation of Wingstop Inc is $4.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wingstop Inc is 6.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Earnings per share at Wingstop Inc are $4.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The dividend yield of Wingstop Inc is 0.8% (payout 44.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 28.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The net margin of Wingstop Inc is 16.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wingstop Inc is 26.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wingstop Inc (WING)?
The operating margin of Wingstop Inc is 27.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Revenue at Wingstop Inc is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wingstop Inc (WING)?
Earnings per share at Wingstop Inc are growing +4.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Wingstop Inc (WING) carry?
The net debt of Wingstop Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026