Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd stock $21.77, price $9.16, upside +137.7%, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.44 – $17.49 · fair‑value band $12.99 – $36.29 · the $9.16 price screens below the $21.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.
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The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services.
It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.
Stock analysis
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) currently trades at $9.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.77, implying the stock looks roughly 58% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $27.87 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $9.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.02, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.99 (bear) to $36.29 (bull), the price of $9.16 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of 12.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.5B Mid · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 5.26 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 35.3% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 138%, YMM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.99Fair Value $21.77Bull$36.29
Price $9.16 · Upside +137.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2559 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+82.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+79.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−140% → 33%
2025 sits 101% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.8% a year for the price and +4.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The platform gains from a 12,000-station fueling network with Sinopec tie-up that creates sticky services, yet its core matching business remains exposed to volatile freight volumes in China.
Main risk: Chinese regulators could impose stricter data security rules, algorithmic transparency requirements or take-rate caps on freight platforms, which would increase compliance costs or directly reduce revenue per transaction for Full Truck Alliance.
Bull case: Full Truck Alliance could integrate autonomous fleets into its platform via its investments and use AI matching tools to become the central layer even for self-dispatching owners, preserving or expanding its role.
Bear case: If autonomous fleets bypass marketplaces and regulators cap fees while rivals like Huolala intensify competition, Full Truck Alliance's core matching volume and margins could decline sharply as its intermediary role shrinks.
Our models see it as undervalued. The platform has built a fueling network reaching 12,000 stations, including a Sinopec tie-up that gives verified truckers preferential rates and turns a cost into a sticky service. These extras and rising commission penetration on cleaner orders could lift margins, yet the core matching business still tracks volatile freight volumes in China. Will the added services create more lasting efficiency than cyclical demand swings remove?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 628 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+137.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Return on assets9.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)33.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)44.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.59× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)4.98× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.2× · Cheaper than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YMM
Frequently asked questions
Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.77 versus a price of $9.16, about +138% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YMM?
Our model-based fair value for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is $21.77 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.16.
What is the quality score of YMM?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.77 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.99, optimistic scenario $36.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.77, about +138% upside versus a price of $9.16 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.99, optimistic scenario $36.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.8B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd pays a dividend of $0.272 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 14, 2026. The payout ratio is 38.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.66 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +37.1 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YMM use?
Our models discount Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd that is -5.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd grew +37.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -5.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (-5.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.07 %: that much free cash flow Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd it is $21.77 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $9.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, YMM trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.16, fair value $21.77, a gap of about +138% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YMM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.77). For Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd the two are $12.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd at about $9.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $9.16; our models calculate a fair value of $21.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YMM?
Our models span a range for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd: cautious scenario $12.99, base $21.77, optimistic $36.29 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $9.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YMM?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 10.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YMM from its 52-week high?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd trades at $9.16, about 27% below its 52-week high of $12.55 and 21% above the low of $7.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $9.16, calculated fair value $21.77 (+138%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YMM calculated?
We run Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd currently trades 58% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.16. Our model-based fair value is $21.77, about +138% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (77/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($12.99 to $36.29). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The market capitalisation of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is $9.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is 5.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Earnings per share at Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The dividend yield of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is 3.0% (payout 47.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The net margin of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is 35.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
The operating margin of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is 44.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Revenue at Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM)?
Earnings per share at Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd are growing +0.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd (YMM) hold?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 6.1B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026