Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Technology · US · Market cap $8.8B · ISIN US35969L1089
At a glance
FTFull Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADRYMM · US
Price$8.43
Fair Value$19.76
Upside+134.4%
Quality76/100
A strong business, trading 57% below our fair value of $19.76.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR is $19.76 per share against a price of $8.43, so the fair value sits 134% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +37.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.7% net margin
✓generates free cash flow
·2.15% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/10)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 28 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange $13.08 to $24.70
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $19.70 to $19.76 (+0.3%) since Aug 31, 2026. Share price −12.5% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
A fairly wide model range ($13.08 to $24.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.44 – $20.54 · fair‑value band $13.08 – $24.70 · the $8.43 price screens below the $19.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) currently trades at $8.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.76, implying the stock looks roughly 57.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $186.03 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $8.43 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $23.11, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of $12.6B at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: $13.08 (bear) to $24.70 (bull), the price of $8.43 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 134%, YMM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio12.9as of Jun 25, 2026
P/S ratio4.56P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$0.5900price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9
Dividend yield2.2%payout 30.7%
Net margin35.3%FY2025
Return on equity10.5%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)1.3%avg 5y
Operating margin35.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$12.6BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+5.5%3y avg +22.9%
EPS growth (YoY)−20.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$4.5BFY2025
Net cash$6.1BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality76/100
Of which business quality 73
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance86
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.
Full company description
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of 12.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4B CNY in FY2025.
Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$12.5B
Latest YoY
+11.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.0%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +52.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+50.6%
Dividend yield2.2%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−140.1% (2020) → 33.2% (2025) · rising
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 101% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
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Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 0
FUTURE28· sector 37
PAST42· sector 12
HEALTH0· sector 98
DIVIDEND43· sector 29
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.76 versus a price of $8.43, about +134% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YMM?
Our model-based fair value for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR is $19.76 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.43.
What is the quality score of YMM?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.76 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.08, optimistic scenario $24.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.76, about +134% upside versus a price of $8.43 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.08, optimistic scenario $24.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM)?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YMM?
The net profit margin of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR is about 32.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 32.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR it is $19.76 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $8.43. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, YMM trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.43, fair value $19.76, a gap of about +134% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YMM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.76). For Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR the two are $11.33 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR at about $8.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $8.43; our models calculate a fair value of $19.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YMM?
Our models span a range for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $13.08, base $19.76, optimistic $24.70 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $8.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YMM?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.76 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 10.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YMM from its 52-week high?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR trades at $8.43, about 39% below its 52-week high of $13.82 and 11% above the low of $7.57 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $8.43, calculated fair value $19.76 (+134%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YMM calculated?
We run Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR
YMM · US