Yoshinoya Holdings (YNOYF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.1B
Yoshinoya Holdings
YNOYF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $8.94 to $8.79 (−1.7%) since Jun 25, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
4‑month range $17.00 – $17.00 · fair‑value band $6.59 – $10.99 · the $17.00 price screens above the $8.79 fair value. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Yoshinoya Holdings (YNOYF) currently trades at $17.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.79, implying the stock looks roughly 48.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Yoshinoya Holdings generated revenue of $226B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at $9.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.59 (bear case) to $10.99 (bull case); at $17.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -48%, YNOYF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($9.75) versus Asset-Based ($4.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates restaurants in Japan and internationally. It also involved in management of beef bowl and other fast food restaurants and management advisory for franchised stores; self-service sanuki-style udon noodle; and business investment, fund management and franchisee recruitment.
Full company description
Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates restaurants in Japan and internationally. It also involved in management of beef bowl and other fast food restaurants and management advisory for franchised stores; self-service sanuki-style udon noodle; and business investment, fund management and franchisee recruitment. Yoshinoya Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Yoshinoya Holdings reported revenue of $226B in FY2026 versus $168B in FY2023, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was $4.7B in FY2026, compounding −13.6%/yr from FY2023.
YNOYF screens 48% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
Compare Yoshinoya Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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