YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited $0.24, price $0.14, upside +71.4%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1400 – $0.6819 · fair‑value band $0.1600 – $0.3000 · the $0.1400 price screens below the $0.2400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited, an investment holding company, provides freight forwarding services in the People's Republic of China, North America, Europe, Australia, and other Asian regions. It operates through five segments: Air Freight, Ocean Freight, Logistics, International Express and Parcel, and Others.
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YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited, an investment holding company, provides freight forwarding services in the People's Republic of China, North America, Europe, Australia, and other Asian regions. It operates through five segments: Air Freight, Ocean Freight, Logistics, International Express and Parcel, and Others. The company offers freight forwarding services through air, sea, and land, as well as trucking services. It also provides other services, including warehousing, distribution, customs clearance, general sales agency, and contract logistics services. In addition, the company is involved in the issuing of bills of lading and property holding activities; offers freight forwarding brokerage, software and information technology, and supply chain management services; and acts as import and export declaration agent. It serves customers in various sectors, including garment, footwear and electronics, and small parcel transportation for e-commerce businesses. The company was formerly known as YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited and changed its name to YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited in November 2022. YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Kowloon Bay, Hong Kong. YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited operates as a subsidiary of YTO Global Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF) currently trades at $0.1400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2400, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $1.66 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.1400 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.1700, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1600 (bear) to $0.3000 (bull), the price of $0.1400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$3.2B in FY2025 versus HK$7.6B in FY2021, a compound −19.4%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$146M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $58.5M · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Net margin −4.6% · Return on equity −13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin −5.5% · Revenue (TTM) HK$3.2B · Revenue growth (YoY) −24.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 71%, YTOEF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1600Fair Value $0.2400Bull $0.3000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.6% (2020) → −5.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
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Is YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2400 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $0.1400, about +71% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YTOEF?
Our model-based fair value for YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is $0.2400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $0.1400.
What is the quality score of YTOEF?
YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1600, optimistic scenario $0.3000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2400, about +71% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $0.1400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1600, optimistic scenario $0.3000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited it is $0.2400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1400. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, YTOEF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1400, fair value $0.2400, a gap of about +71% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YTOEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2400). For YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited the two are $0.1000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited worth?
The market values YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited at about $58.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1400; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YTOEF?
Our models span a range for YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.1600, base $0.2400, optimistic $0.3000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −13.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YTOEF from its 52-week high?
YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited trades at $0.1400, about 65% below its 52-week high of $0.3990 and at the low of $0.1400 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1400, calculated fair value $0.2400 (+71%), Quality Score 49/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YTOEF calculated?
We run YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited currently trades 71 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $0.1400. Our model-based fair value is $0.2400, about +71% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($0.1600 to $0.3000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
The market capitalisation of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is $58.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
Earnings per share at YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
The net margin of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is −4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is −13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
The operating margin of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is −5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
Revenue at YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is growing −24.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF)?
Earnings per share at YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited are growing −91.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF) generate?
The free cash flow of YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited is −HK$23.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited (YTOEF) hold?
YTO Express (International) Holdings Limited holds more cash than debt, HK$490M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026