Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Zug Estates Holding AG CHF 893, price CHF 2,210, upside -59.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 1,376 – CHF 2,449 · fair‑value band CHF 452.39 – CHF 1,429 · the CHF 2,210 price screens above the CHF 892.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Zug Estates Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, conceives, develops, markets, and manages properties in the Zug region, Switzerland. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate and Hotel & Catering. Its portfolio includes residential, office, retail, hotel, and service use, such as education and culture properties.
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Zug Estates Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, conceives, develops, markets, and manages properties in the Zug region, Switzerland. The company operates in two segments, Real Estate and Hotel & Catering. Its portfolio includes residential, office, retail, hotel, and service use, such as education and culture properties. The company is also involved in project development and management; and rental properties, as well as the provision of property management services for third parties. In addition, it operates hotels, restaurants, and serviced city apartments, including hotel and catering services. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) currently trades at CHF 2,210, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 892.63, implying the stock looks roughly 147.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of CHF 1,921 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the CHF 2,210 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at CHF 240.87, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 452.39 (bear) to CHF 1,429 (bull), the price of CHF 2,210 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Zug Estates Holding AG reported revenue of CHF 91.5M in FY2025 versus CHF 71.8M in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 85.2M in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 1.1B · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 11.9 · EPS (TTM) CHF 166.99 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 93.1% · Return on equity 8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −60%, ZUGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 452.39Fair Value CHF 892.63Bull CHF 1,429
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 86.26 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 61%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 114% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 132 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−60% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)93% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)14.99× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF29.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA33.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)9· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)32· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)44· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zug Estates Holding AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZUGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 892.63 versus a price of CHF 2,210, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZUGN?
Our model-based fair value for Zug Estates Holding AG is CHF 892.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 2,210.
What is the quality score of ZUGN?
Zug Estates Holding AG has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 892.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 452.39, optimistic scenario CHF 1,429. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zug Estates Holding AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 892.63, about −60% upside versus a price of CHF 2,210 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 452.39, optimistic scenario CHF 1,429. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Zug Estates Holding AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 91.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Zug Estates Holding AG pay a dividend?
Zug Estates Holding AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zug Estates Holding AG would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ZUGN use?
Our models discount Zug Estates Holding AG at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Zug Estates Holding AG that is +21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Zug Estates Holding AG grew -8.2 % a year. The price currently implies +21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Zug Estates Holding AG (+21.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.13 %: that much free cash flow Zug Estates Holding AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zug Estates Holding AG it is CHF 892.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 2,210. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zug Estates Holding AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ZUGN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 2,210, fair value CHF 892.63, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZUGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 2,210); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 892.63). For Zug Estates Holding AG the two are CHF 1,317 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zug Estates Holding AG worth?
The market values Zug Estates Holding AG at about CHF 1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 2,210; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 892.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZUGN?
Our models span a range for Zug Estates Holding AG: cautious scenario CHF 452.39, base CHF 892.63, optimistic CHF 1,429 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 2,210). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ZUGN?
Zug Estates Holding AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 892.63 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 15.0, EV/EBITDA 33.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zug Estates Holding AG (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.0%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZUGN from its 52-week high?
Zug Estates Holding AG trades at CHF 2,210, about 10% below its 52-week high of CHF 2,449 and 8% above the low of CHF 2,038 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 892.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zug Estates Holding AG?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, Central Pattana Public Company, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, The Phoenix Mills Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zug Estates Holding AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 2,210, calculated fair value CHF 892.63 (−60%), Quality Score 64/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZUGN calculated?
We run Zug Estates Holding AG through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 892.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zug Estates Holding AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was CHF 2,210. Our model-based fair value is CHF 892.63, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zug Estates Holding AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 1,429). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (CHF 452.39 to CHF 1,429). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) come from?
Earnings per share at Zug Estates Holding AG grew +0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.9 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zug Estates Holding AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The market capitalisation of Zug Estates Holding AG is CHF 1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zug Estates Holding AG is 11.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Earnings per share at Zug Estates Holding AG are CHF 166.99 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The dividend yield of Zug Estates Holding AG is 2.2% (payout 29.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The net margin of Zug Estates Holding AG is 93.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zug Estates Holding AG is 8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zug Estates Holding AG is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
The operating margin of Zug Estates Holding AG is 59.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Revenue at Zug Estates Holding AG is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN)?
Earnings per share at Zug Estates Holding AG are growing −30.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Zug Estates Holding AG (ZUGN) carry?
The net debt of Zug Estates Holding AG is CHF 646M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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