Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aeon Co Ltd stock $3.24, price $7.72, that is 58.1% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.01 – $18.15 · fair‑value band $2.43 – $4.05 · the $7.72 price screens above the $3.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Aeon Co., Ltd. operates in the retail industry in Japan, China, ASEAN countries, and internationally. It operates through General Merchandise Store, Supermarket, Discount Store, Health & Wellness, Comprehensive Finance, Developer, and Service and Specialty Shops segments.
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The company operates general supermarket, uniform price general merchandise sales, etc.; supermarkets, convenience stores, small supermarkets; discount stores; and drugstores, dispensing pharmacies, etc.
It is also involved in credit card business, fee-based business, banking; development and leasing of shopping centers; comprehensive facility management services, amusement, restaurants, family restaurants, specialty stores selling casual fashion, and shoes, etc.; retail business in the ASEAN region and China; and mobile marketing business, digital business, etc.
The company was founded in 1758 and is headquartered in Chiba, Japan.
Stock analysis
Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) currently trades at $7.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.24, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $10.33 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $7.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9600, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.43 (bear) to $4.05 (bull), the price of $7.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Aeon Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥11.2T in FY2026 versus ¥8.7T in FY2022, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥75.9B in FY2026, compounding +84.8%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $21.4B Large · P/E ratio 38.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −58%, AONNY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.43Fair Value $3.24Bull$4.05
Price $7.72 · Downside -58.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0776 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$8.69$14.80$24.7177
Growth DCF$9.04$14.69$23.4176
Residual Income$2.29$2.39$2.6276
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$8.69$14.80$24.7177
Owner Earnings$2.37$4.92$9.0572
5Y Revenue Exit$3.64$5.82$8.4471
5Y EBITDA Exit$6.35$10.76$15.7274
5Y P/E Exit$3.12$4.87$6.5870
10Y Revenue Exit$5.17$7.55$10.4366
10Y EBITDA Exit$7.06$11.07$16.0967
10Y P/E Exit$4.93$6.87$9.0064
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.18$3.16$4.1365
Lynch FV$0.6200$0.8800$1.1461
PEG = 1.0$0.6200$0.8800$1.1457
EPV$0.6200$1.14$1.6070
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$0.5100$1.16$2.0865
DDM Multi-Stage$0.5100$0.8200$1.1866
Multiples
P/E Multiple$2.86$3.81$4.7663
P/S Multiple$2.21$2.94$3.6857
P/B Multiple$4.28$5.71$7.1355
EV/EBIT$0.9700$2.70$4.4360
EV/EBITDA$4.12$6.89$9.6765
EV/Revenuen/a$0.7800$2.2849
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.7100$0.9600$1.4353
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$9.04$14.69$23.4176
Rev-Margin DCF$3.64$5.97$8.6171
Economic Profit
Residual Income$2.29$2.39$2.6276
ROIC Compounder$0.6200$1.14$1.6069
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$2.24$3.20$4.1667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.8% vs 7.4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.4% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (7 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Large scale as a major Japanese retailer provides broad reach, yet thin margins, limited moat signals and weak organic growth in Japan constrain profitability.
Main risk: E-commerce platforms such as Amazon and Rakuten along with discount retailers including Costco, Don Quijote and Nitori could erode Aeon's share in non-food categories and force lower prices or thinner margins across its Japanese and overseas stores.
Bull case: Aeon could leverage its scale, private brands, integrated finance and AI-driven personalisation to differentiate offerings and win share from rivals while scaling profitable formats in Vietnam and elsewhere.
Bear case: If e-commerce and discount players continue gaining ground and regulatory costs mount, Aeon could face persistent margin compression in core operations and limited returns from overseas expansion amid intensifying local competition.
Aeon posted a 1.7 percent increase in all-store sales for August while same-store sales remained flat. The group is simultaneously opening additional malls in Vietnam to expand its footprint in Southeast Asia. Will the capital deployed overseas generate enough incremental profit to offset the lack of organic growth in its core Japanese operations?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−58.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Return on assets0.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aeon Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AONNY
Frequently asked questions
Is Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.24 versus a price of $7.72, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AONNY?
Our model-based fair value for Aeon Co Ltd is $3.24 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.72.
What is the quality score of AONNY?
Aeon Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.24 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.43, optimistic scenario $4.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aeon Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.24, about 58% lower versus a price of $7.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.43, optimistic scenario $4.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Aeon Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥11.4T (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Aeon Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Aeon Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aeon Co Ltd pays a dividend of $0.0885 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Feb 27, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 51.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 16.12 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aeon Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -11.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AONNY use?
Our models discount Aeon Co Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aeon Co Ltd that is -11.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aeon Co Ltd grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -11.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aeon Co Ltd (-11.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.50 %: that much free cash flow Aeon Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aeon Co Ltd it is $3.24 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $7.72. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Aeon Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, AONNY trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.72, fair value $3.24, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AONNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.24). For Aeon Co Ltd the two are $4.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aeon Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Aeon Co Ltd at about $21.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $7.72; our models calculate a fair value of $3.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AONNY?
Our models span a range for Aeon Co Ltd: cautious scenario $2.43, base $3.24, optimistic $4.05 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $7.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AONNY?
Aeon Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.6 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 12.8, P/B 2.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
What is the PEG ratio of AONNY?
The PEG ratio of Aeon Co Ltd is 12.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aeon Co Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 2.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AONNY from its 52-week high?
Aeon Co Ltd trades at $7.72, about 57% below its 52-week high of $18.15 and 10% above the low of $6.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aeon Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aeon Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $7.72, calculated fair value $3.24 (−58%), Quality Score 33/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AONNY calculated?
We run Aeon Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.24 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aeon Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $7.72. Our model-based fair value is $3.24, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aeon Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Aeon Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The market capitalisation of Aeon Co Ltd is $21.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Earnings per share at Aeon Co Ltd are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The dividend yield of Aeon Co Ltd is 1.1% (payout 44.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The net margin of Aeon Co Ltd is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aeon Co Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aeon Co Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
The operating margin of Aeon Co Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Revenue at Aeon Co Ltd is growing +12.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY)?
Earnings per share at Aeon Co Ltd are growing +75.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aeon Co Ltd (AONNY) carry?
The net debt of Aeon Co Ltd is ¥3.1T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026