Duolingo Inc (DUOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Duolingo Inc stock $185, price $157, upside +18.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.00 – $540.68 · fair‑value band $116.31 – $292.02 · the $157.02 price screens below the $185.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers 250 language courses, including Spanish, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Japanese, and Chinese through its Duolingo app.
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It also provides a digital English language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Duolingo Inc (DUOL) currently trades at $157.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $185.25, implying the stock looks roughly 15% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $471.75 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $157.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $19.41, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $116.31 (bear) to $292.02 (bull), the price of $157.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Duolingo Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $251M in FY2021, a compound +42.6%/yr. Reported net income was $414M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $7.9B Mid · P/E ratio 52.0 · P/S ratio 6.65 · EPS (TTM) $3.02 · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 18%, DUOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$116.31Fair Value $185.25Bull$292.02
Price $157.02 · Upside +18.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.56 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $40.8M and none bought.
SaleStephen C. ChenGeneral Counsel6× since Nov 17, 2025: 21,186 shares, avg. $146.80$3.1MNov 4, 2026
SaleWilliam B GordonDirector2× since Sep 8, 2026: 20,000 shares, avg. $141.03$2.8MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLuis von AhnPresident & CEO, Co-Founder, Director, 10% owner4× since Sep 16, 2026: 226,000 shares, avg. $151.10$34.1MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNatalie GlanceChief Engineering Officer4× since Nov 17, 2025: 19,870 shares, avg. $133.10$2.6MAug 18, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRobert MeeseChief Business Officer4× since Nov 17, 2025: 5,218 shares, avg. $134.37$701,129Aug 17, 2026
BuyJames H SheltonDirector5,000 shares at $99.76$498,800Mar 3, 2026
SaleMatthew SkaruppaChief Financial Officer2× since Nov 17, 2025: 11,714 shares, avg. $144.62$1.7MFeb 18, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSeverin HackerChief Tech Officer, Co-Founder, Director, 10% owner10,000 shares at $172.75$1.7MNov 19, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.4%
’19
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.7% (2020) → 13.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price and +9.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows moderate moat potential through brand strength and margins yet faces limits from thin signals on durability in human capital and insider activity.
Main risk: Generative AI services from Google Translate, ChatGPT or Apple could offer live translation, conversation practice and tutoring, reducing demand for dedicated language learning platforms and pressuring prices or margins.
Bull case: Duolingo could integrate advanced generative AI for personalised, gamified lessons that maintain user motivation better than standalone chatbots, expanding its content library rapidly while deepening engagement.
Bear case: If users shift to free AI tools from Google or OpenAI for translation and practice, Duolingo's core language courses could see sharply lower demand, eroding its user base and monetisation over time.
Duolingo has reversed its earlier monetization push by reducing friction for free users to accelerate daily active user growth. Management targets 100 million DAUs by 2028, accepting slower bookings and margins in 2026 as a result. Will the expanded user base create more value through future monetization than the near-term sacrifices cost?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+18.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.5% · Above median
Return on assets20.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.7% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)52.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.83× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.65× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Duolingo Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DUOL
Frequently asked questions
Is Duolingo Inc (DUOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $185.25 versus a price of $157.02, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DUOL?
Our model-based fair value for Duolingo Inc is $185.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $157.02.
What is the quality score of DUOL?
Duolingo Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $185.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $116.31, optimistic scenario $292.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duolingo Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $185.25, about +18% upside versus a price of $157.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $116.31, optimistic scenario $292.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Duolingo Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Duolingo Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +45.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUOL use?
Our models discount Duolingo Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Duolingo Inc that is +7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Duolingo Inc (DUOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Duolingo Inc grew +45.0 % a year. The price currently implies +7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Duolingo Inc (DUOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Duolingo Inc (+7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.71 %: that much free cash flow Duolingo Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duolingo Inc it is $185.25 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $157.02. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Duolingo Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DUOL trades below its calculated fair value: price $157.02, fair value $185.25, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($157.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($185.25). For Duolingo Inc the two are $28.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duolingo Inc worth?
The market values Duolingo Inc at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $157.02; our models calculate a fair value of $185.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUOL?
Our models span a range for Duolingo Inc: cautious scenario $116.31, base $185.25, optimistic $292.02 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $157.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUOL?
Duolingo Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $185.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.8, P/S 6.6, EV/EBITDA 41.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duolingo Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 10.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUOL from its 52-week high?
Duolingo Inc trades at $157.02, about 40% below its 52-week high of $260.02 and 74% above the low of $90.03 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $185.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duolingo Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duolingo Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $157.02, calculated fair value $185.25 (+18%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUOL calculated?
We run Duolingo Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $185.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.4% above its aggregate fair value. Duolingo Inc currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $157.02. Our model-based fair value is $185.25, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duolingo Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($116.31 to $292.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Duolingo Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The market capitalisation of Duolingo Inc is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duolingo Inc is 6.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Earnings per share at Duolingo Inc are $3.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 52.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The net margin of Duolingo Inc is 12.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duolingo Inc is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duolingo Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
The operating margin of Duolingo Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Revenue at Duolingo Inc is growing +13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Duolingo Inc (DUOL)?
Earnings per share at Duolingo Inc are growing −90.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Duolingo Inc (DUOL) hold?
Duolingo Inc holds more cash than debt, $943M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 6, 2026