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Data-driven stock valuation

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rithm Capital Corp. stock $13.14, price $9.23, upside +42.4%, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

RC Rithm Capital Corp. logo Some data Nov 6, 2026

Rithm Capital Corp.

RITM · US
Speculative

The stock costs 30% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $13.14 · Undervalued (30%)
Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin (TTM)
Positive coverage
Revenue last quarter +39% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +20.0 %/yr in USD)
10.8% dividend yield · Payout strained
Moderate moat 51/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $1.8M (6M)
Some data
Quality 37/100
Trails peers (3/12)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Servicer capital rules could restrict GSE business
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.12 $4.69 Fair Value $13.14 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.69 – $11.12 · fair‑value band $12.32 – $14.48 · the $9.23 price screens below the $13.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Rithm Capital Corp. operates as an asset manager focused on real estate, credit, and financial services in the United States. It operates through Origination and Servicing, Residential Transitional Lending, and Asset Management and Investment Portfolio.

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The company's investment portfolio primarily comprises of single-family rental properties, title, appraisal and property preservation and maintenance businesses; real estate securities, call rights, SFR properties, residential mortgage loans, collateralized loan obligations and consumer loans, excess mortgage servicing rights, servicer advance investments, and asset management related investments.

It also provides government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) and government guaranteed loans; non-GSE or non-government guaranteed loans; and residential transitional lending. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes.

It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp. and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp. in August 2022.

Rithm Capital Corp. was incorporated in 2011 and is based in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) currently trades at $9.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.14, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.75 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the $9.23 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $13.14, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $12.32 (bear) to $14.48 (bull), the price of $9.23 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Rithm Capital Corp. reported revenue of $5.7B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was $681M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.2B Mid · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 1.76 · EPS (TTM) $0.6300 · Dividend yield 10.8% · Net margin 12.0% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 78% fair-value upside, at 42%, RITM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $12.32 Fair Value $13.14 Bull $14.48
Price $9.23 · Upside +42.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $12.32 $13.14 $14.48 74
Gordon GGM $9.60 $18.28 $26.45 65
DDM Multi-Stage $9.60 $16.21 $19.40 65
All 5 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $9.60 $18.28 $26.45 65
DDM Multi-Stage $9.60 $16.21 $19.40 65
Multiples
P/S Multiple $15.56 $20.75 $25.93 58
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $0.4900 61
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.32 $13.14 $14.48 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 27
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 12
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 60
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 62
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 32
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 31
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 49
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.8M and none bought.

  • SaleNicola Santoro JrChief Financial Officer100,000 shares at $9.51$951,000Nov 4, 2026
  • SalePeggy Hwan HebardDirector14,520 shares at $10.18$147,814Aug 20, 2026
  • SaleDavid SaltzmanDirector80,922 shares at $9.25$748,346May 20, 2026
  • SaleDavid ZeidenChief Legal Officer2× since Nov 14, 2025: 28,502 shares, avg. $10.79$307,440Feb 27, 2026

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.4% vs −5.5%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 65%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 26, 2026
AI conclusion: Mortgage REIT shows strength in scaling asset management and servicing income, but its limited durable advantage, thin margins and high leverage remain key weaknesses.
Main risk: Stricter FHFA and Ginnie Mae capital and liquidity standards for mortgage servicers could force higher reserves or lead to loss of approval to originate or service GSE and Ginnie Mae loans, reducing fee-based servicing income at Newrez.
Bull case: By sustaining regulatory compliance and leveraging its scale in third-party servicing plus KI-driven cost reductions at Newrez, Rithm could expand fee-based AUM and stabilize earnings despite cyclical origination volumes.
Bear case: If capital requirements tighten further or financing markets seize up, Newrez could face restricted GSE servicing rights and higher funding costs, eroding margins on its core mortgage platform and limiting growth in asset management.
Rithm Capital is scaling its asset management platform with ongoing fundraising and a clear path toward larger third-party AUM, while its mortgage servicing book generates steadier income amid higher rates and slower prepayments. Parallel investments in AI at Newrez aim to deliver substantial operating efficiencies. Will the growing weight of fee-based earnings ultimately outweigh any ongoing variability in origination volumes?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +42.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.7% · Above median
Return on assets 1.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 10.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 39.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 39.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 10.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.21× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.62× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.12× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 28.7× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)90 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 97
PAST (return on equity)23 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Chimera Investment Corporation CIM $7.31 $18.28 +150% vs RITM
MFA Financial, Inc MFA $6.21 $14.69 +137% vs RITM
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $8.78 $18.66 +113% vs RITM
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $12.05 $25.00 +107% vs RITM
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $4.94 $8.77 +78% vs RITM
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $12.60 $19.59 +56% vs RITM
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $18.75 $19.24 +3% vs RITM
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $11.26 $11.12 −1% vs RITM
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $10.68 $9.12 −15% vs RITM
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.91 $7.56 −15% vs RITM

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rithm Capital Corp. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RITM

Frequently asked questions

Is Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.14 versus a price of $9.23, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RITM?
Our model-based fair value for Rithm Capital Corp. is $13.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.23.
What is the quality score of RITM?
Rithm Capital Corp. has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.32, optimistic scenario $14.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rithm Capital Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.14, about +42% upside versus a price of $9.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.32, optimistic scenario $14.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Rithm Capital Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Rithm Capital Corp. pay a dividend?
Rithm Capital Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of 10.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Rithm Capital Corp. pays a dividend of $1.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 10.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 1, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 159% of earnings. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What is the intrinsic value of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rithm Capital Corp. it is $13.14 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $9.23. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit).
Is Rithm Capital Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, RITM trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.23, fair value $13.14, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RITM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.14). For Rithm Capital Corp. the two are $3.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rithm Capital Corp. worth?
The market values Rithm Capital Corp. at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $9.23; our models calculate a fair value of $13.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RITM?
Our models span a range for Rithm Capital Corp.: cautious scenario $12.32, base $13.14, optimistic $14.48 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $9.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RITM?
Rithm Capital Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.14 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 6.1. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 28.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rithm Capital Corp. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.7%, debt of 4.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RITM from its 52-week high?
Rithm Capital Corp. trades at $9.23, about 17% below its 52-week high of $11.11 and 14% above the low of $8.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rithm Capital Corp.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rithm Capital Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $9.23, calculated fair value $13.14 (+42%), Quality Score 37/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RITM calculated?
We run Rithm Capital Corp. through 5 models from 3 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Rithm Capital Corp. currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.23. Our model-based fair value is $13.14, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rithm Capital Corp. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.32). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) come from?
Earnings per share at Rithm Capital Corp. grew −2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.0 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Rithm Capital Corp.

How large is the market capitalisation of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The market capitalisation of Rithm Capital Corp. is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rithm Capital Corp. is 1.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Earnings per share at Rithm Capital Corp. are $0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The dividend yield of Rithm Capital Corp. is 10.8% (payout 159%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The net margin of Rithm Capital Corp. is 12.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rithm Capital Corp. is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rithm Capital Corp. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
The operating margin of Rithm Capital Corp. is 39.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Revenue at Rithm Capital Corp. is growing +39.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)?
Earnings per share at Rithm Capital Corp. are growing +8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) generate?
The free cash flow of Rithm Capital Corp. is −$763M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM) carry?
The net debt of Rithm Capital Corp. is $37.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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