Valvoline Inc (VVV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Valvoline Inc stock $11.66, price $34.81, that is 66.5% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.96 – $47.60 · fair‑value band $7.81 – $20.86 · the $34.81 price screens above the $11.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Valvoline Inc. provides automotive preventive maintenance through its retail stores in the United States and Canada. The company offers oil changes; battery, bulb, and wiper replacements; tire rotations; and other maintenance services.
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It also operates and franchises service centers and retail locations. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
Stock analysis
Valvoline Inc (VVV) currently trades at $34.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.66, 67% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $27.26 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $34.81 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.94, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.81 (bear) to $20.86 (bull), the price of $34.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Valvoline Inc reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.3%/yr. Reported net income was $211M in FY2025, compounding −15.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5B Mid · P/E ratio 43.0 · P/S ratio 2.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 21.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at −67%, VVV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.81Fair Value $11.66Bull$20.86
Price $34.81 · Downside -66.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors bought shares worth $500,876, most recently on Aug 12, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $239,174. Buying cluster
SaleJulie Marie O'DanielChief Legal Officer3× since Nov 26, 2025: 11,212 shares, avg. $35.09$393,378Aug 21, 2026
BuyJordan M. DennyChief Accounting Officer1,506 shares at $33.20$49,999Aug 12, 2026
SaleJonathan L. CaldwellChief People Officer2× since Mar 2, 2026: 6,513 shares, avg. $38.69$251,964Jun 25, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJennifer Lynn SlaterDirector1,000 shares at $32.53$32,530May 15, 2026
BuyRichard Joseph FreelandDirector3,100 shares at $32.37$100,347May 14, 2026
BuyJ Kevin WillisChief Financial Officer2× since Nov 21, 2025: 20,000 shares, avg. $31.61$632,100May 14, 2026
BuyLori Ann FleesPresident & CEO, Director4,500 shares at $30.82$138,690Nov 24, 2025
Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−13.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.6% vs 5.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.8% a year for the price and +11.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Valvoline benefits from a 17-year streak of system-wide same-store sales growth in its quick-service network, but high leverage and low free cash flow conversion limit the moat assessment.
Main risk: Shifting consumer habits and competition threaten to erode margins in the quick-service maintenance network.
Valvoline has delivered system-wide same-store sales growth for 17 consecutive years through its quick-service maintenance network. The board's recent decision to expand the repurchase authorization by another 175 million dollars highlights steady cash flow from that model. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the long growth streak continue to support the business, or will shifting consumer habits and competition erode those margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−66.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.10× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)43.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B13.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valvoline Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VVV
Frequently asked questions
Is Valvoline Inc (VVV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.66 versus a price of $34.81, about 67% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VVV?
Our model-based fair value for Valvoline Inc is $11.66 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.81.
What is the quality score of VVV?
Valvoline Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.66 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.81, optimistic scenario $20.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valvoline Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.66, about 67% lower versus a price of $34.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.81, optimistic scenario $20.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Valvoline Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Valvoline Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +49.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.7 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VVV use?
Our models discount Valvoline Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Valvoline Inc that is +49.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Valvoline Inc (VVV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Valvoline Inc grew +18.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +49.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Valvoline Inc (VVV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Valvoline Inc (+49.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.85 %: that much free cash flow Valvoline Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valvoline Inc it is $11.66 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $34.81. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Valvoline Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, VVV trades above its calculated fair value: price $34.81, fair value $11.66, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VVV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.66). For Valvoline Inc the two are $23.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valvoline Inc worth?
The market values Valvoline Inc at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $34.81; our models calculate a fair value of $11.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VVV?
Our models span a range for Valvoline Inc: cautious scenario $7.81, base $11.66, optimistic $20.86 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $34.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VVV?
Valvoline Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.66 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 24.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 13.2, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 11.4.
What is the PEG ratio of VVV?
The PEG ratio of Valvoline Inc is 1.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Valvoline Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 28.4%, debt of 3.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VVV from its 52-week high?
Valvoline Inc trades at $34.81, about 14% below its 52-week high of $40.27 and 31% above the low of $26.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valvoline Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valvoline Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $34.81, calculated fair value $11.66 (−67%), Quality Score 57/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VVV calculated?
We run Valvoline Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.66 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Valvoline Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $34.81. Our model-based fair value is $11.66, about 67% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valvoline Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($7.81 to $20.86). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Valvoline Inc (VVV) come from?
Earnings per share at Valvoline Inc grew +16.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.9 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +3.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Valvoline Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The market capitalisation of Valvoline Inc is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valvoline Inc is 2.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Earnings per share at Valvoline Inc are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The net margin of Valvoline Inc is 5.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valvoline Inc is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valvoline Inc is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
The operating margin of Valvoline Inc is 21.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Revenue at Valvoline Inc is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valvoline Inc (VVV)?
Earnings per share at Valvoline Inc are growing +15.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Valvoline Inc (VVV) carry?
The net debt of Valvoline Inc is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 42.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026