Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd stock ¥2.99, price ¥1.87, upside +60.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.74 – ¥9.95 · fair‑value band ¥2.22 – ¥3.76 · the ¥1.87 price screens below the ¥2.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other.
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The company offers culture paper, copperplate paper, coated paper, white cardboard, copy paper, industrial paper, special paper, life paper, newspaper, and thermal and glassine paper, as well as household paper comprising toilet papers, facial tissues, pocket tissues, napkins, and paper towels; and paper making raw materials, machinery, and chemicals.
It also generates and sells electric and thermal power; engages in the forestry, saplings growing, and processing and sale of timber and construction materials; manufactures, processes, and sells wood products; purchases and sells waste; and provides wall materials, logistics, panels, and coal, as well as financial leasing, and equipment financial and operating leasing services.
In addition, the company is involved in the provision of catering, hotel, marketing, capital market, funding, arboriculture, logistics, transportation, printing and packaging, machinery manufacturing, trading, property investment and management, commerce, business factoring, investment management, wholesale and retail, investment, finance, port, cargo transportation, and business services activities.
Further, it engages in the electricity, tea, property, and real estate business. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shouguang, China.
Stock analysis
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488) currently trades at ¥1.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.99, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥2.53 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the ¥1.87 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at ¥1.82, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ¥2.22 (bear) to ¥3.76 (bull), the price of ¥1.87 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2006: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2006.
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 6.2B CNY in FY2025 versus 33.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −34.2%/yr. Reported net income was −8.3B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.5B CNY (≈ $825M) Small · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) ¥−1.78 · Net margin −47.7% · Return on equity −118% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −14.3% · Revenue (TTM) 10.9B CNY.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 60%, 000488 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.22Fair Value ¥2.99Bull¥3.76
Price ¥1.87 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥2.70¥4.02¥6.3978
Growth DCF¥2.84¥4.10¥6.1977
5Y Revenue Exit¥0.4500¥0.8400¥1.4269
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥2.70¥4.02¥6.3978
5Y Revenue Exit¥0.4500¥0.8400¥1.4269
10Y Revenue Exit¥1.35¥1.82¥2.2967
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥2.84¥4.10¥6.1977
Rev-Margin DCF¥0.4500¥0.9500¥1.6568
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2006: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2006.
Revenue growth 1 year
−72.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−27.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −11.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.2% (2020) → −51.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+45.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.0% a year for the price.
Compare Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 120 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−16.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−47.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−14.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)196.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)17.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.17× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
P/B6.09× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.50× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.9× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/000488
Frequently asked questions
Is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.99 versus a price of ¥1.87, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 000488?
Our model-based fair value for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is ¥2.99 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥1.87.
What is the quality score of 000488?
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.99 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.22, optimistic scenario ¥3.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.99, about +60% upside versus a price of ¥1.87 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.22, optimistic scenario ¥3.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +45.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -27.4 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 000488 use?
Our models discount Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd that is +45.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd grew -27.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +45.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (+45.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.36 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd it is ¥2.99 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of ¥1.87. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 2 families (DCF Models, Growth DCF).
Is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, 000488 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥1.87, fair value ¥2.99, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 000488?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥1.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.99). For Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd the two are ¥1.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd at about 5.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is ¥1.87; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 000488?
Our models span a range for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario ¥2.22, base ¥2.99, optimistic ¥3.76 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price ¥1.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 000488?
The PEG ratio of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity −117.6%, debt of 6.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 000488 from its 52-week high?
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd trades at ¥1.87, about 39% below its 52-week high of ¥3.05 and 1% above the low of ¥1.85 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price ¥1.87, calculated fair value ¥2.99 (+60%), Quality Score 35/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 000488 calculated?
We run Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd through 5 models from 2 families: DCF Models, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥2.99 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was ¥1.87. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.99, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥2.22). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The market capitalisation of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is 5.5B CNY (≈ $825M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd are ¥−1.78. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The net margin of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is −47.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is −118% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is −3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
The operating margin of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is −14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Revenue at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is growing +197% versus a year earlier (3y avg −42.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488)?
Earnings per share at Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd are growing −78.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd (000488) carry?
The net debt of Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd is 26.6B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Why does Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Ltd not meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is higher?
Trough year lifted: ¥1.82 → ¥2.99. The latest year was a trough or loss year. So we calculate with a normal year: ¥2.99 instead of ¥1.82. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: -3% against the price.
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Thin data
Nov 11, 2026