Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings (000488) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 5.6B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 12, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 12, 2026, revised from ¥0.2000 to ¥0.2100 (+5.0%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price −0.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥0.3100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (¥0.1500 to ¥0.3100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥1.74 – ¥11.48 · fair‑value band ¥0.1500 – ¥0.3100 · the ¥1.93 price screens above the ¥0.2100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 12, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings (000488) currently trades at ¥1.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥0.2100, implying the stock looks roughly 89.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings generated revenue of 8.4B CNY at a net margin of -87.9%. Revenue grew 274.0% year over year. Net debt stands at 26.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥0.1500 (bear case) to ¥0.3100 (bull case); at ¥1.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -89%, 000488 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other.
Full company description
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited engages in the pulp production and paper making in China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Machine Paper, Financial Services, Hotels and Property Rentals, and Other. The company offers culture paper, copperplate paper, coated paper, white cardboard, copy paper, industrial paper, special paper, life paper, newspaper, and thermal and glassine paper, as well as household paper comprising toilet papers, facial tissues, pocket tissues, napkins, and paper towels; and paper making raw materials, machinery, and chemicals. It also generates and sells electric and thermal power; engages in the forestry, saplings growing, and processing and sale of timber and construction materials; manufactures, processes, and sells wood products; purchases and sells waste; and provides wall materials, logistics, panels, and coal, as well as financial leasing, and equipment financial and operating leasing services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of catering, hotel, marketing, capital market, funding, arboriculture, logistics, transportation, printing and packaging, machinery manufacturing, trading, property investment and management, commerce, business factoring, investment management, wholesale and retail, investment, finance, port, cargo transportation, and business services activities. Further, it engages in the electricity, tea, property, and real estate business. Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shouguang, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings reported revenue of ¥6.2B in FY2025 versus ¥33.0B in FY2021, a compound −34.2%/yr. Reported net income was −¥8.3B in FY2025.
000488 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with Klabin S.A →
Peer Group
Paper & Paper Products · 112 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Klabin S.A KLBN11 | R$17.58 | R$3.89 | -78% |
| UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM | €23.45 | €15.47 | -34% |
| Suzano S.A SUZB3 | R$41.70 | R$138.01 | +231% |
| Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SCAB | kr 103.00 | kr 49.40 | -52% |
| Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 | ¥14.13 | ¥17.29 | +22% |
| Holmen AB HOLMB | kr 305.40 | kr 217.72 | -29% |
| Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 | HK$7.55 | HK$8.73 | +16% |
| Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC | 1,078 CLP | 1,269 CLP | +18% |
| Xianhe Co 603733 | ¥21.09 | ¥21.06 | -0% |
| Billerud AB BILL | kr 68.70 | kr 48.60 | -29% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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