WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock TWD 11.45, price TWD 15.90, that is 28.0% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.44 TWD – 24.61 TWD · fair‑value band 6.75 TWD – 15.78 TWD · the 15.90 TWD price screens above the 11.45 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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WINSON Machinery Co., LTD. manufactures castings in Taiwan. The company offers five-axis machining center castings bases and worktables; gantry-type machining center castings column; PCB drilling machine base and worktable; vertical boring machine base; and EDM casting products.
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It also provides casting solutions and engineering support; mold planning and maintenance; mold assembly and patternmaking; material composition adjustment and charge; heat treatment and stress relief; quality control and inspection; contract machining and finished product delivery; and packaging and logistics services.
The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Changhua, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) currently trades at 15.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.45 TWD, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 16.69 TWD per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the 15.90 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.72 TWD, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 6.75 TWD (bear) to 15.78 TWD (bull), the price of 15.90 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 380M TWD in FY2025 versus 463M TWD in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.3M TWD in FY2025, compounding −18.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 946M TWD (≈ $28.8M) Micro · P/E ratio 40.8 · P/S ratio 2.39 · EPS (TTM) 0.3900 TWD · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −28%, 4538 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear6.75 TWDFair Value 11.45 TWDBull15.78 TWD
Price 15.90 TWD · Downside -28.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF16.27 TWD24.02 TWD35.38 TWD80
Growth DCF16.66 TWD23.71 TWD33.53 TWD79
Owner Earnings11.62 TWD17.09 TWD25.11 TWD76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF16.27 TWD24.02 TWD35.38 TWD80
Owner Earnings11.62 TWD17.09 TWD25.11 TWD76
5Y Revenue Exit7.60 TWD9.39 TWD11.41 TWD74
5Y EBITDA Exit9.59 TWD13.00 TWD16.73 TWD76
5Y P/E Exit8.20 TWD10.49 TWD12.70 TWD72
10Y Revenue Exit10.59 TWD12.86 TWD15.43 TWD68
10Y EBITDA Exit11.91 TWD15.33 TWD19.38 TWD70
10Y P/E Exit11.04 TWD13.61 TWD16.39 TWD65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd1.98 TWD5.27 TWD6.89 TWD65
Lynch FV1.02 TWD1.46 TWD1.89 TWD61
PEG = 1.01.02 TWD1.46 TWD1.89 TWD57
EPV1.75 TWD1.97 TWD2.16 TWD74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM3.63 TWD7.55 TWD11.99 TWD66
DDM Multi-Stage3.63 TWD5.63 TWD7.76 TWD66
Multiples
P/E Multiple3.72 TWD4.95 TWD6.19 TWD63
P/S Multiple3.72 TWD4.95 TWD6.19 TWD58
P/B Multiple33.03 TWD44.04 TWD55.06 TWD55
EV/EBIT3.27 TWD4.23 TWD5.18 TWD66
EV/EBITDA6.57 TWD8.62 TWD10.68 TWD67
EV/Revenue2.89 TWD3.95 TWD5.02 TWD54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)4.45 TWD6.74 TWD8.43 TWD54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF16.66 TWD23.71 TWD33.53 TWD79
Rev-Margin DCF7.60 TWD9.67 TWD12.08 TWD74
Economic Profit
Residual Income9.98 TWD10.04 TWD10.41 TWD76
ROIC Compounder1.75 TWD1.97 TWD2.16 TWD72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E2.98 TWD4.25 TWD5.53 TWD67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.8%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.0% a year for the price.
Compare WINSON Machinery Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 260 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WINSON Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4538
Frequently asked questions
Is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.45 TWD versus a price of 15.90 TWD, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4538?
Our model-based fair value for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 11.45 TWD (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.90 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4538?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.45 TWD (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.75 TWD, optimistic scenario 15.78 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.45 TWD, about 28% lower versus a price of 15.90 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.75 TWD, optimistic scenario 15.78 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 395M TWD (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does WINSON Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 6.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) and when is the ex-dividend date?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd pays a dividend of 1.00 TWD per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.3%. The last ex-dividend date was May 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.44 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, WINSON Machinery Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4538 use?
Our models discount WINSON Machinery Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For WINSON Machinery Co Ltd that is -9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (-9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.06 %: that much free cash flow WINSON Machinery Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WINSON Machinery Co Ltd it is 11.45 TWD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 15.90 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 4538 trades above its calculated fair value: price 15.90 TWD, fair value 11.45 TWD, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4538?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.90 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.45 TWD). For WINSON Machinery Co Ltd the two are 4.45 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd worth?
The market values WINSON Machinery Co Ltd at about 946M TWD (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 15.90 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 11.45 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4538?
Our models span a range for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario 6.75 TWD, base 11.45 TWD, optimistic 15.78 TWD per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 15.90 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4538?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.45 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 19.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Balance-sheet figures for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 2.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4538 from its 52-week high?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd trades at 15.90 TWD, about 16% below its 52-week high of 18.95 TWD and 1% above the low of 15.71 TWD (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.45 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WINSON Machinery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 15.90 TWD, calculated fair value 11.45 TWD (−28%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4538 calculated?
We run WINSON Machinery Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 11.45 TWD builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. WINSON Machinery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 15.90 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 11.45 TWD, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WINSON Machinery Co Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (6.75 TWD to 15.78 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The market capitalisation of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 946M TWD (≈ $28.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The price-to-sales ratio of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 2.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Earnings per share at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd are 0.3900 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The dividend yield of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 6.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The net margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The operating margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Revenue at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Earnings per share at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd are growing +88.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) hold?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 24.6M TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 7, 2026