WINSON Machinery Co (4538) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TW · Market cap 1.1B TWD
Fair value as of: Jul 23, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 23, 2026, revised from 6.74 TWD to 10.22 TWD (+51.6%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price −5.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11.54 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (5.64 TWD to 11.54 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 13.44 TWD – 24.61 TWD · fair‑value band 5.64 TWD – 11.54 TWD · the 17.50 TWD price screens above the 10.22 TWD fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 23, 2026.
Analysis
WINSON Machinery Co (4538) currently trades at 17.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.22 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 41.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, WINSON Machinery Co generated revenue of 399M TWD at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 28.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 24.6M TWD. Fundamentals as of Jul 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 5.64 TWD (bear case) to 11.54 TWD (bull case); at 17.50 TWD, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -72% fair-value upside, at -42%, 4538 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (11.62 TWD) versus Earnings-Based (1.46 TWD). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
WINSON Machinery Co., LTD. manufactures castings in Taiwan. The company offers five-axis machining center castings bases and worktables; gantry-type machining center castings column; PCB drilling machine base and worktable; vertical boring machine base; and EDM casting products.
Full company description
WINSON Machinery Co., LTD. manufactures castings in Taiwan. The company offers five-axis machining center castings bases and worktables; gantry-type machining center castings column; PCB drilling machine base and worktable; vertical boring machine base; and EDM casting products. It also provides casting solutions and engineering support; mold planning and maintenance; mold assembly and patternmaking; material composition adjustment and charge; heat treatment and stress relief; quality control and inspection; contract machining and finished product delivery; and packaging and logistics services. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Changhua, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
WINSON Machinery Co reported revenue of 380M TWD in FY2025 versus 463M TWD in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.3M TWD in FY2025, compounding −18.1%/yr from FY2021.
4538 screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Carpenter Technology Corporation →
Peer Group
Metal Fabrication · 244 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Metal Fabrication stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carpenter Technology Corporation CRS | $577.10 | $103.31 | -82% |
| ATI Inc ATI | $186.17 | $36.51 | -80% |
| Mueller Industries, Inc MLI | $59.13 | $60.24 | +2% |
| China International Marine Containers (Group) Co 000039 | ¥7.45 | ¥1.15 | -85% |
| JL Mag Rare-Earth Co 300748 | ¥31.69 | ¥8.74 | -72% |
| Western Superconducting Technologies Co 688122 | ¥56.73 | ¥24.43 | -57% |
| Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co 300953 | ¥131.65 | ¥44.23 | -66% |
| Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co 603308 | ¥48.52 | ¥8.07 | -83% |
| Baoding Technology Co 002552 | ¥43.95 | ¥5.44 | -88% |
| Xiamen Voke Mold & Plastic Engineering Co 301196 | ¥110.08 | ¥42.71 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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