WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd TWD 10.22, price TWD 17.50, upside -41.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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WINSON Machinery Co., LTD. manufactures castings in Taiwan. The company offers five-axis machining center castings bases and worktables; gantry-type machining center castings column; PCB drilling machine base and worktable; vertical boring machine base; and EDM casting products.
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WINSON Machinery Co., LTD. manufactures castings in Taiwan. The company offers five-axis machining center castings bases and worktables; gantry-type machining center castings column; PCB drilling machine base and worktable; vertical boring machine base; and EDM casting products. It also provides casting solutions and engineering support; mold planning and maintenance; mold assembly and patternmaking; material composition adjustment and charge; heat treatment and stress relief; quality control and inspection; contract machining and finished product delivery; and packaging and logistics services. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Changhua, Taiwan.
Stock analysis
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) currently trades at 17.50 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10.22 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 71.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 12.54 TWD per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the 17.50 TWD price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1.46 TWD, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 6.02 TWD (bear) to 10.84 TWD (bull), the price of 17.50 TWD sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd reported revenue of 380M TWD in FY2025 versus 463M TWD in FY2021, a compound −4.8%/yr. Reported net income was 17.3M TWD in FY2025, compounding −18.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.0B TWD (≈ $32.7M) · P/E ratio 60.3 · P/S ratio 2.75 · EPS (TTM) 0.2900 TWD · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −42%, 4538 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.02 TWDFair Value 10.22 TWDBull 10.84 TWD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TWD ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TWD: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.8%/yr over ~6Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Taiwan: IMF forecast 1.6% a year to 2030, 1.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.6% a year for the price.
Compare WINSON Machinery Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 262 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−42% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)60.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.19× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.61× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)8· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "WINSON Machinery Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4538
Frequently asked questions
Is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10.22 TWD versus a price of 17.50 TWD, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 4538?
Our model-based fair value for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 10.22 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.50 TWD.
What is the quality score of 4538?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10.22 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.02 TWD, optimistic scenario 10.84 TWD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10.22 TWD, about −42% upside versus a price of 17.50 TWD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6.02 TWD, optimistic scenario 10.84 TWD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 399M TWD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does WINSON Machinery Co Ltd pay a dividend?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, WINSON Machinery Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4538 use?
Our models discount WINSON Machinery Co Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Taiwan. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For WINSON Machinery Co Ltd that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.23 %: that much free cash flow WINSON Machinery Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For WINSON Machinery Co Ltd it is 10.22 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 17.50 TWD. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 4538 trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.50 TWD, fair value 10.22 TWD, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4538?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.50 TWD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10.22 TWD). For WINSON Machinery Co Ltd the two are 7.28 TWD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd worth?
The market values WINSON Machinery Co Ltd at about 1.0B TWD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 17.50 TWD; our models calculate a fair value of 10.22 TWD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4538?
Our models span a range for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd: cautious scenario 6.02 TWD, base 10.22 TWD, optimistic 10.84 TWD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 17.50 TWD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4538?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10.22 TWD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 19.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Balance-sheet figures for WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4538 from its 52-week high?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd trades at 17.50 TWD, about 8% below its 52-week high of 18.95 TWD and 11% above the low of 15.71 TWD (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10.22 TWD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to WINSON Machinery Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is WINSON Machinery Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 17.50 TWD, calculated fair value 10.22 TWD (−42%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4538 calculated?
We run WINSON Machinery Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10.22 TWD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. WINSON Machinery Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 17.50 TWD. Our model-based fair value is 10.22 TWD, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with WINSON Machinery Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.84 TWD). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (6.02 TWD to 10.84 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The market capitalisation of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 1.0B TWD (≈ $32.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The price-to-sales ratio of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 2.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Earnings per share at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd are 0.2900 TWD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The dividend yield of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 5.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The net margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The return on equity (ROE) of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
The operating margin of WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Revenue at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd is growing +28.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538)?
Earnings per share at WINSON Machinery Co Ltd are growing −12.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does WINSON Machinery Co Ltd (4538) hold?
WINSON Machinery Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 24.6M TWD net (fiscal year 2023). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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