Jilin Forest (600189) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Jilin Forest stock ¥3.91, price ¥8.63, that is 54.7% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.54 – ¥15.07 · fair‑value band ¥2.61 – ¥4.93 · the ¥8.63 price screens above the ¥3.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Jilin Quanyangquan Co., Ltd. engages in the production and sale of door products, mineral water, and seedlings in China. The company operates through Mineral Water Distribution, Landscape and Greening Business, Door Products Business, and Others segments.
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It also engages in the trade distribution; industrial production; greening project; design and construction of landscape, gardening, and greening; production and sale of mineral water, beverages, etc.; wholesale and retail trade; public facilities management; and landscaping businesses.
Jilin Quanyangquan Co., Ltd. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Changchun, China.
Stock analysis
Jilin Forest (600189) currently trades at ¥8.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.91, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥1.31 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥8.63 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at ¥0.6350, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥2.61 (bear) to ¥4.93 (bull), the price of ¥8.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.
Jilin Forest reported revenue of 1.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 1.5B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was 15.1M CNY in FY2025, compounding −38.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.5B CNY (≈ $977M) Small · P/E ratio 172.6 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.0500 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −55%, 600189 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.2500 to ¥4.79). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥2.61Fair Value ¥3.91Bull¥4.93
Price ¥8.63 · Downside -54.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0434 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥1.18¥1.47¥1.8281
Growth DCF¥1.19¥1.46¥1.7779
Owner Earnings¥0.5000¥0.5700¥0.670077
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥1.18¥1.47¥1.8281
Owner Earnings¥0.5000¥0.5700¥0.670077
5Y Revenue Exit¥0.9100¥1.13¥1.4073
5Y EBITDA Exit¥1.03¥1.36¥1.7176
5Y P/E Exit¥0.7800¥0.9100¥1.0471
10Y Revenue Exit¥1.00¥1.21¥1.4667
10Y EBITDA Exit¥1.09¥1.35¥1.6669
10Y P/E Exit¥0.9500¥1.08¥1.2264
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥0.1400¥0.3100¥0.400065
PEG = 1.0¥0.1700¥0.2500¥0.320057
EPV¥0.6000¥0.6500¥0.680073
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥0.2100¥0.3000¥0.380069
DDM Multi-Stage¥0.2100¥0.2800¥0.350067
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥0.2700¥0.3600¥0.450063
P/S Multiple¥0.2700¥0.3600¥0.450057
P/B Multiple¥3.60¥4.79¥5.9955
EV/EBIT¥0.4800¥0.6600¥0.850064
EV/EBITDA¥0.6900¥0.9500¥1.2167
EV/Revenue¥0.4000¥0.6100¥0.820052
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥0.4600¥0.6900¥0.870054
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥1.19¥1.46¥1.7779
Rev-Margin DCF¥0.9100¥1.15¥1.4273
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥0.9800¥1.03¥1.1176
ROIC Compounder¥0.6000¥0.6500¥0.680071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥0.2000¥0.2900¥0.380067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Per share before 2000divided by the spin-off factor 1.053
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−31.7% vs −15.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.6%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 89 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−54.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jilin Forest Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600189
Frequently asked questions
Is Jilin Forest (600189) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.91 versus a price of ¥8.63, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600189?
Our model-based fair value for Jilin Forest is ¥3.91 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.63.
What is the quality score of 600189?
Jilin Forest has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jilin Forest (600189)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.91 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.61, optimistic scenario ¥4.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jilin Forest stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.91, about 55% lower versus a price of ¥8.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.61, optimistic scenario ¥4.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Jilin Forest (600189)?
Jilin Forest reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Jilin Forest pay a dividend?
Jilin Forest currently shows a dividend yield of 0.66% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Jilin Forest (600189)?
Jilin Forest has a dividend yield of 0.7%.
What growth is priced into Jilin Forest (600189)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Jilin Forest would have to grow free cash flow by +30.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.7 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600189 use?
Our models discount Jilin Forest at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Jilin Forest that is +30.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Jilin Forest (600189) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Jilin Forest grew -1.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Jilin Forest (600189) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Jilin Forest (+30.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Jilin Forest produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Jilin Forest (600189)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jilin Forest it is ¥3.91 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of ¥8.63. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Jilin Forest stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 600189 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.63, fair value ¥3.91, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600189?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.91). For Jilin Forest the two are ¥4.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jilin Forest worth?
The market values Jilin Forest at about 6.5B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.63; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600189?
Our models span a range for Jilin Forest: cautious scenario ¥2.61, base ¥3.91, optimistic ¥4.93 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price ¥8.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600189?
Jilin Forest trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 172.6 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.91 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 431.5 (reported for FY2025: 378.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 103.6. Other multiples: P/B 5.3, P/S 9.7, EV/EBITDA 69.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jilin Forest (600189)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jilin Forest (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 5.6%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600189 from its 52-week high?
Jilin Forest trades at ¥8.63, about 11% below its 52-week high of ¥9.72 and 25% above the low of ¥6.88 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jilin Forest?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jilin Forest stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price ¥8.63, calculated fair value ¥3.91 (−55%), Quality Score 45/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600189 calculated?
We run Jilin Forest through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥3.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Jilin Forest itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was ¥8.63. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.91, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jilin Forest right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥4.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥2.61 to ¥4.93) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Jilin Forest
How large is the market capitalisation of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The market capitalisation of Jilin Forest is 6.5B CNY (≈ $977M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Jilin Forest is 4.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Jilin Forest (600189)?
Earnings per share at Jilin Forest are ¥0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 172.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The dividend yield of Jilin Forest is 0.7% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The net margin of Jilin Forest is 2.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jilin Forest is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jilin Forest (600189)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jilin Forest is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jilin Forest (600189)?
The operating margin of Jilin Forest is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jilin Forest (600189)?
Revenue at Jilin Forest is growing +24.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Jilin Forest (600189)?
Earnings per share at Jilin Forest are growing +633% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Jilin Forest (600189) carry?
The net debt of Jilin Forest is 130M CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 12, 2026