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Data-driven stock valuation

Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd stock ¥14.10, price ¥33.45, that is 57.8% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive CN · ISIN CNE000000K90

ST Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd

600702 · SHG
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 58% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Quality 40/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.8 %/yr in CNY)
Loss over the last twelve months · -1.9% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 5.9%
0.9% dividend yield · Token dividend
Revenue last quarter 28% below a year ago.
Fair value ¥14.10 · Strongly overvalued (−57.8%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/12)
Narrow moat 23/100
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

¥255.22 ¥30.32 Fair Value ¥14.10 May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥30.32 – ¥255.22 · fair‑value band ¥10.58 – ¥14.58 · the ¥33.45 price screens above the ¥14.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Shede Spirits Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, and sells of liquor products in China.

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It engages in the production and sale of glass products; wholesale and retail of alcoholic beverages and their packaging materials; grain purchase and sale; material procurement and sale; and commercial trade.

The company is also involved in domestic tourism; tourism scenic area development; exhibition and display services; sales of pre-packaged food; wine distribution, food sales, online food sales, food import and export, brand management, marketing planning, and internet sales; and inspection and testing services; and road freight transport, general cargo warehousing services, loading and unloading, operation of road freight transport stations, and domestic freight forwarding.

In addition, it engages in the provision of technology promotion services; business management consulting; economic and trade consulting; conference services; exhibition and display organization; etiquette services; corporate planning; public relations services; market research; software development; computer system services; data processing; sales of computers, software, and auxiliary equipment; software development; and computer graphic design and production.

The company offers its products under the Shede, Toupai, and Tunzhihu brands. Shede Spirits Co., Ltd.was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Shehong, China.

Stock analysis

Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) currently trades at ¥33.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥14.10, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥12.92 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥33.45 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.05, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: ¥10.58 (bear) to ¥14.58 (bull), the price of ¥33.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.

Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd reported revenue of 3.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 5.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 223M CNY in FY2025, compounding −35.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 11.0B CNY (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/S ratio 2.54 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.2300 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin −1.9% · Return on equity −1.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −15.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −58%, 600702 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥5.62 to ¥80.10). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ¥10.58 Fair Value ¥14.10 Bull ¥14.58
Price ¥33.45 · Downside -57.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV ¥6.63 ¥7.39 ¥8.04 74
Residual Income ¥14.27 ¥14.16 ¥14.58 74
ROIC Compounder ¥6.63 ¥7.39 ¥8.04 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.57 ¥16.57 ¥22.35 62
Lynch FV ¥3.93 ¥5.62 ¥7.31 59
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.93 ¥5.62 ¥7.31 55
EPV ¥6.63 ¥7.39 ¥8.04 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.42 ¥6.38 ¥9.06 65
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.42 ¥5.72 ¥6.79 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥10.58 ¥14.10 ¥17.63 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.56 ¥11.42 ¥14.27 58
P/B Multiple ¥60.07 ¥80.10 ¥100.12 55
EV/EBIT ¥7.70 ¥11.73 ¥15.76 65
EV/EBITDA ¥12.95 ¥18.73 ¥24.51 67
EV/Revenue ¥4.24 ¥7.94 ¥11.64 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.17 ¥6.31 ¥7.89 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥14.27 ¥14.16 ¥14.58 74
ROIC Compounder ¥6.63 ¥7.39 ¥8.04 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.44 ¥10.63 ¥13.82 65

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 25
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 50
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 75
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 14
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 4
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 85
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2000: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2000.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Per share before 2000divided by the spin-off factor 1.0379
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −17.2% / 32.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

600702 screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 91 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −57.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −1.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −15.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −28.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.74× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 47.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)19 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥81.17 ¥154.52 +90% vs 600702
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4350 SGD 0.7200 SGD +66% vs 600702
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥132.00 ¥209.69 +59% vs 600702
Anhui Gujing Distillery Co 000596 ¥105.01 ¥141.00 +34% vs 600702
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,453 ¥1,653 +14% vs 600702
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥75.34 ¥83.40 +11% vs 600702
Pernod Ricard SA RI €71.14 €56.13 −21% vs 600702
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥37.86 ¥24.22 −36% vs 600702
Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO ₹4,515 ₹1,705 −62% vs 600702
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,418 ₹381.82 −73% vs 600702

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Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600702

Frequently asked questions

Is Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥14.10 versus a price of ¥33.45, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600702?
Our model-based fair value for Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is ¥14.10 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥33.45.
What is the quality score of 600702?
Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥14.10 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥10.58, optimistic scenario ¥14.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥14.10, about 58% lower versus a price of ¥33.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥10.58, optimistic scenario ¥14.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.31 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.9%. The last ex-dividend date was May 27, 2026. The payout ratio is 46.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.9% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.9% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd it is ¥14.10 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of ¥33.45. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 600702 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥33.45, fair value ¥14.10, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600702?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥33.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥14.10). For Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd the two are ¥19.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd worth?
The market values Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd at about 11.0B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is ¥33.45; our models calculate a fair value of ¥14.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600702?
Our models span a range for Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥10.58, base ¥14.10, optimistic ¥14.58 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price ¥33.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −1.2%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600702 from its 52-week high?
Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd trades at ¥33.45, about 50% below its 52-week high of ¥67.31 and 10% above the low of ¥30.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥14.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price ¥33.45, calculated fair value ¥14.10 (−58%), Quality Score 40/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600702 calculated?
We run Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥14.10 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥33.45. Our model-based fair value is ¥14.10, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥14.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) come from?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd grew +42.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.9 %, EBIT margin +14.2 %, tax rate +7.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The market capitalisation of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is 11.0B CNY (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is 2.54 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd are ¥−0.2300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The dividend yield of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is 0.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The net margin of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is −1.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
The operating margin of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is −15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Revenue at Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is growing −28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702)?
Earnings per share at Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd are growing −33.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) generate?
The free cash flow of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is −1.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd (600702) carry?
The net debt of Sichuan Tuopai Shede Wine Co Ltd is 1.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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