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Shede Spirits Co (600702) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 12.6B CNY

SS Shede Spirits Co 600702 · SHG
Price¥37.98
Fair Value¥11.73
Upside-69.1%
Quality42/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 2.5% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
0.81% dividend yield
Trails peers (1/13)
Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥8.56 – ¥13.82 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 9, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 9, 2026, revised from ¥11.71 to ¥11.73 (+0.2%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +13.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 69% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥13.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥255.22 ¥32.57 Fair Value ¥11.73 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥32.57 – ¥255.22 · fair‑value band ¥8.56 – ¥13.82 · the ¥37.98 price screens above the ¥11.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 9, 2026.

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Analysis

Shede Spirits Co (600702) currently trades at ¥37.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.73, implying the stock looks roughly 69.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Shede Spirits Co generated revenue of 4.3B CNY at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue declined 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.3%. Net debt stands at 1.5B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 9, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥8.56 (bear case) to ¥13.82 (bull case); at ¥37.98, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -69%, 600702 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥15.22 ¥14.99 ¥13.01 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.35 ¥8.35 ¥9.23 72
Gordon GGM ¥3.86 ¥8.03 ¥12.73 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥4.57 ¥16.57 ¥22.35 54
Lynch FV ¥3.93 ¥5.62 ¥7.31 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥3.93 ¥5.62 ¥7.31 46
EPV ¥7.35 ¥8.35 ¥9.23 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.86 ¥8.03 ¥12.73 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.86 ¥6.77 ¥8.42 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥10.58 ¥14.10 ¥17.63 63
P/S Multiple ¥8.56 ¥11.42 ¥14.27 58
P/B Multiple ¥8.56 ¥11.42 ¥14.27 55
EV/EBIT ¥13.44 ¥17.47 ¥21.50 53
EV/EBITDA ¥18.69 ¥24.47 ¥30.25 54
EV/Revenue ¥9.98 ¥13.68 ¥17.38 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥10.37 ¥13.90 ¥20.74 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥15.22 ¥14.99 ¥13.01 76
ROIC Compounder ¥7.35 ¥8.35 ¥9.23 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥7.44 ¥10.63 ¥13.82 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (¥13.90) versus Earnings-Based (¥5.62). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.3B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -6.0%
Net margin 2.5%
Return on equity 1.3%
Free cash flow −1.2B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 115.1
More key figures
Operating margin 21.3%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.3300
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -33.2%
Net debt 1.5B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 9, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shede Spirits Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, and sells of liquor products in China. It engages in the production and sale of glass products; wholesale and retail of alcoholic beverages and their packaging materials; grain purchase and sale; material procurement and sale; and commercial trade.

Full company description

Shede Spirits Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, and sells of liquor products in China. It engages in the production and sale of glass products; wholesale and retail of alcoholic beverages and their packaging materials; grain purchase and sale; material procurement and sale; and commercial trade. The company is also involved in domestic tourism; tourism scenic area development; exhibition and display services; sales of pre-packaged food; wine distribution, food sales, online food sales, food import and export, brand management, marketing planning, and internet sales; and inspection and testing services; and road freight transport, general cargo warehousing services, loading and unloading, operation of road freight transport stations, and domestic freight forwarding. In addition, it engages in the provision of technology promotion services; business management consulting; economic and trade consulting; conference services; exhibition and display organization; etiquette services; corporate planning; public relations services; market research; software development; computer system services; data processing; sales of computers, software, and auxiliary equipment; software development; and computer graphic design and production. The company offers its products under the Shede, Toupai, and Tunzhihu brands. Shede Spirits Co., Ltd.was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Shehong, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shede Spirits Co reported revenue of ¥3.7B in FY2025 versus ¥5.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥223M in FY2025, compounding −35.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 29/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.7B CNY
Latest YoY
−30.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−14.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.8%
Avg. growth/yr (32Y)
+7.9%
Revenue −6.8%/yr
FY21 ¥5.0B
FY22 ¥6.1B
FY23 ¥7.1B
FY24 ¥5.4B
FY25 ¥3.7B
Net income −35.0%/yr
FY21 ¥1.2B
FY22 ¥1.7B
FY23 ¥1.8B
FY24 ¥346M
FY25 ¥223M

600702 screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shede Spirits Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600702

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −69% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.11× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 115.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.83× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.92× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 28.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 20
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 5 · sector 17
HEALTH 94 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 16 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 9, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,251 ¥1,238 -1%
Diageo plc DEON 1,487 MXN 1,239 MXN -17%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥73.69 ¥48.44 -34%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥110.50 ¥185.80 +68%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €65.24 €76.68 +18%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥83.12 ¥149.17 +79%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $26.60 $28.15 +6%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,376 ₹440.56 -68%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4450 SGD 0.6900 SGD +55%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥38.08 ¥27.82 -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shede Spirits Co (600702) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.73 versus a price of ¥37.98, about −69% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600702?
Our model-based fair value for Shede Spirits Co is ¥11.73 (as of Aug 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥37.98.
What is the quality score of 600702?
Shede Spirits Co has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shede Spirits Co (600702)?
Shede Spirits Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 9, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600702?
The net profit margin of Shede Spirits Co is about 2.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shede Spirits Co pay a dividend?
Shede Spirits Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.81% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 9, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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