American Airlines Group (AAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American Airlines Group stock $7.04, price $12.93, that is 45.6% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.07 – $22.26 · fair‑value band $5.00 – $8.80 · the $12.93 price screens above the $7.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific.
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The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo.
It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Stock analysis
American Airlines Group (AAL) currently trades at $12.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.04, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.52 per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the $12.93 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.00 (bear) to $8.80 (bull), the price of $12.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
American Airlines Group reported revenue of $54.6B in FY2025 versus $29.9B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $111M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.6B Mid · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7300 · Net margin −0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 0.9% · Revenue (TTM) $61.0B · Revenue growth (YoY) +19.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −46%, AAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.9400 to $20.58). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$5.00Fair Value $7.04Bull$8.80
Price $12.93 · Downside -45.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Growth-Adj P/E$2.12$3.02$3.9367
Graham-Dodd$1.14$3.24$4.2665
P/E Multiple$2.64$3.52$4.4063
All 7 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$1.14$3.24$4.2665
Lynch FV$0.6600$0.9400$1.2361
PEG = 1.0$0.6600$0.9400$1.2357
Multiples
P/E Multiple$2.64$3.52$4.4063
P/S Multiple$2.14$2.85$3.5658
EV/EBITDA$2.50$20.58$38.6659
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$2.12$3.02$3.9367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
SaleDavid SeymourEVP Chief Operating Officer3× since Dec 9, 2025: 213,901 shares, avg. $16.56$3.5MJun 25, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−47.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−47.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−46.4% vs −28.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−60% → 3%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The commoditized airline shows minimal durable advantage across most factors while its Starlink rollout aims to attract premium travelers as the main strength amid negative equity and high leverage as the core weakness.
Main risk: Ultra-low-cost carriers such as Frontier, Breeze and Avelo could win more domestic passengers with lower fares on overlapping routes, squeezing American Airlines' margins and market share.
Bull case: American Airlines could strengthen its premium cabins, loyalty program and direct distribution channels to attract higher-yielding travelers and offset pressure from low-cost rivals.
Bear case: If low-cost carriers expand aggressively on American's key domestic routes while regulatory costs rise, the airline could lose significant market share and face sustained margin compression.
American Airlines is rolling out Starlink connectivity across its full mainline fleet from next year to strengthen the onboard experience and attract more premium travelers. At the same time the airline faces the same sharp rise in fuel costs that led Delta to cut its profit forecast, with no refinery or hedges to cushion the impact. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these service upgrades generate enough extra revenue to offset the fuel headwind, or will costs continue to outrun the gains?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−45.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.14× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.5× · Pricier than median
PEG0.12× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)97· sector 76
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 45
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Airlines Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AAL
Frequently asked questions
Is American Airlines Group (AAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.04 versus a price of $12.93, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AAL?
Our model-based fair value for American Airlines Group is $7.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.93.
What is the quality score of AAL?
American Airlines Group has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Airlines Group (AAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.00, optimistic scenario $8.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Airlines Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.04, about 46% lower versus a price of $12.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.00, optimistic scenario $8.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
American Airlines Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $61.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Airlines Group it is $7.04 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $12.93. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Airlines Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AAL trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.93, fair value $7.04, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.04). For American Airlines Group the two are $5.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Airlines Group worth?
The market values American Airlines Group at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $12.93; our models calculate a fair value of $7.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AAL?
Our models span a range for American Airlines Group: cautious scenario $5.00, base $7.04, optimistic $8.80 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $12.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AAL?
The PEG ratio of American Airlines Group is 0.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Airlines Group (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AAL from its 52-week high?
American Airlines Group trades at $12.93, about 29% below its 52-week high of $18.15 and 27% above the low of $10.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Airlines Group?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Airlines Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $12.93, calculated fair value $7.04 (−46%), Quality Score 43/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AAL calculated?
We run American Airlines Group through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. American Airlines Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $12.93. Our model-based fair value is $7.04, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Airlines Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of American Airlines Group
How large is the market capitalisation of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
The market capitalisation of American Airlines Group is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Airlines Group is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
Earnings per share at American Airlines Group are $−0.7300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
The net margin of American Airlines Group is −0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Airlines Group is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Airlines Group (AAL)?
The operating margin of American Airlines Group is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Airlines Group (AAL)?
Revenue at American Airlines Group is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Airlines Group (AAL)?
Earnings per share at American Airlines Group are growing −88.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Airlines Group (AAL) generate?
The free cash flow of American Airlines Group is −$680M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Airlines Group (AAL) carry?
The net debt of American Airlines Group is $34.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
