AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AGNC Investment Corp. stock $18.85, price $8.82, upside +113.8%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 53% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value $18.85 · Strongly undervalued (53%)
Highly profitable · 43.6% net margin (TTM)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 37% above the price ($12.05).
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +44.6 %/yr in USD)
16.3% dividend yield · Payout strained
Mixed vs. peers(7/15)
Moderate moat49/100
Insiders sold $2.1M (6M)
Quality 34/100
⚠ Dilution
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Book value hit last quarter from widening spreads🚩Spread widening marking agency holdings lower🚩Short-term repo funding dependence🚩GSE conservatorship and guarantee risks
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.20 – $11.30 · fair‑value band $12.05 – $36.17 · the $8.82 price screens below the $18.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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AGNC Investment Corp. provides private capital to housing market in the United States.
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It invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency.
The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal or state corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders.
The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock analysis
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) currently trades at $8.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.85, implying the stock looks roughly 53% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $30.39 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the $8.82 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $4.03, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.05 (bear) to $36.17 (bull), the price of $8.82 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AGNC Investment Corp. reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $837M in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B Large · P/E ratio 176.4 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Net margin 87.3% · Return on equity 0.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4% · Operating margin 102% · Revenue growth (YoY) +546%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 56% fair-value upside, at 114%, AGNC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.05Fair Value $18.85Bull$36.17
Price $8.82 · Upside +113.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$20.62$30.39$60.3174
Growth DCF$19.43$34.43$58.3174
Residual Income$9.80$11.45$14.7474
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$20.62$30.39$60.3174
5Y Revenue Exit$8.89$11.69$17.3170
5Y EBITDA Exit$28.57$51.46$96.4069
10Y Revenue Exit$12.57$19.75$22.4366
10Y EBITDA Exit$26.38$60.17$120.1262
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$11.35$21.75$31.6865
DDM Multi-Stage$11.35$19.21$23.0765
Multiples
P/S Multiple$3.02$4.03$5.0458
P/B Multiple$6.27$8.36$10.4555
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.01$6.71$10.0154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$19.43$34.43$58.3174
Rev-Margin DCF$8.63$11.66$17.9870
Economic Profit
Residual Income$9.80$11.45$14.7474
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.1M and none bought.
SalePeter J FedericoDirector, President, CEO, CIO, Director2× since Apr 24, 2026: 396,616 shares, avg. $9.90$3.9MOct 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBernice BellEVP, CFO6× since Nov 6, 2025: 125,397 shares, avg. $11.23$1.4MAug 19, 2026
SaleDonna BlankDirector22,000 shares at $10.78$237,160May 6, 2026
SalePaul E MullingsDirector6,800 shares at $10.74$73,032May 4, 2026
SaleGary D KainDirector, Executive Chair, Director700,000 shares at $11.91$8.3MJan 29, 2026
SaleKenneth L. PollackEVP and General Counsel50,000 shares at $12.11$605,500Jan 28, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+79.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.0% vs 2.7%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.89% → 236%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: AGNC generates reliable net interest income from agency MBS holdings yet faces minimal differentiation and high leverage in a commoditized market.
Main risk: Reliance on rolling over short-term repurchase agreements to finance long-term agency MBS could expose the company to higher costs, margin calls or forced sales if counterparties reduce availability or raise haircuts.
Bull case: Stable GSE support and successful shifts toward longer-term or diversified funding could allow AGNC to maintain attractive spreads and rebuild book value over time.
Bear case: Disruptions in repo markets combined with adverse GSE policy shifts could force deleveraging, compress spreads and erode the ability to sustain the leveraged agency MBS model.
AGNC's agency mortgage portfolio took a sharp book value hit last quarter when rising rates widened spreads and marked holdings lower. Our models still see the shares as undervalued after that reset. Does the fresh buyback mandate that activates only below book value point to expected stabilization or underscore the model's lasting exposure to rate swings?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 30 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+113.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)43.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)102.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)546.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)16.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
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Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.85 versus a price of $8.82, about +114% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AGNC?
Our model-based fair value for AGNC Investment Corp. is $18.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.82.
What is the quality score of AGNC?
AGNC Investment Corp. has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.85 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.05, optimistic scenario $36.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGNC Investment Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.85, about +114% upside versus a price of $8.82 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.05, optimistic scenario $36.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGNC Investment Corp. it is $18.85 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $8.82. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AGNC Investment Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AGNC trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.82, fair value $18.85, a gap of about +114% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.85). For AGNC Investment Corp. the two are $10.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGNC Investment Corp. worth?
The market values AGNC Investment Corp. at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $8.82; our models calculate a fair value of $18.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGNC?
Our models span a range for AGNC Investment Corp.: cautious scenario $12.05, base $18.85, optimistic $36.17 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $8.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AGNC?
AGNC Investment Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 176.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016, FY2017, FY2018 ex one-offs: 9.5. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 0.8, P/S 43.4, EV/EBITDA 1.8.
What is the PEG ratio of AGNC?
The PEG ratio of AGNC Investment Corp. is 3.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for AGNC Investment Corp. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 0.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGNC from its 52-week high?
AGNC Investment Corp. trades at $8.82, about 22% below its 52-week high of $11.30 and 5% above the low of $8.44 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGNC Investment Corp.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Dynex Capital, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGNC Investment Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $8.82, calculated fair value $18.85 (+114%), Quality Score 34/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGNC calculated?
We run AGNC Investment Corp. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. AGNC Investment Corp. currently trades 53% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $8.82. Our model-based fair value is $18.85, about +114% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGNC Investment Corp. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($12.05 to $36.17). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) come from?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp. grew −15.6 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.4 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AGNC Investment Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
The market capitalisation of AGNC Investment Corp. is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp. are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 176.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
The net margin of AGNC Investment Corp. is 87.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGNC Investment Corp. is 0.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGNC Investment Corp. is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
The operating margin of AGNC Investment Corp. is 102% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
Revenue at AGNC Investment Corp. is growing +546% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)?
Earnings per share at AGNC Investment Corp. are growing +772% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) generate?
The free cash flow of AGNC Investment Corp. is $653M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) carry?
The net debt of AGNC Investment Corp. is $100B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026