Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc stock $13.39, price $6.98, upside +91.8%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.92 – $12.01 · fair‑value band $6.06 – $22.74 · the $6.98 price screens below the $13.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants.
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It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Stock analysis
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) currently trades at $6.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.39, implying the stock looks roughly 48% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.08 per share, and 16 of the 22 models we run sit above the $6.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.98, and 6 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.06 (bear) to $22.74 (bull), the price of $6.98 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $212M in FY2025, compounding +47.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B Small · P/E ratio 6.6 · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $1.22 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 36.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at 92%, ARCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.06Fair Value $13.39Bull$22.74
Price $6.98 · Upside +91.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8035 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $442,516 and none bought.
SaleArtigas Carlos HernandezDirector2× since May 28, 2026: 52,343 shares, avg. $8.45$442,516Aug 25, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+30.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.6% vs 10.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.0% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+91.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.3% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.39 versus a price of $6.98, about +92% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARCO?
Our model-based fair value for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is $13.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.98.
What is the quality score of ARCO?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.06, optimistic scenario $22.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.39, about +92% upside versus a price of $6.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.06, optimistic scenario $22.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.01% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.28 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 23, 2026, with payment on Dec 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 23.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.41 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +49.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.7 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARCO use?
Our models discount Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc that is +49.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc grew +18.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +49.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (+49.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.02 %: that much free cash flow Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc it is $13.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $6.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ARCO trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.98, fair value $13.39, a gap of about +92% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.39). For Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc the two are $6.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $6.98; our models calculate a fair value of $13.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARCO?
Our models span a range for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $6.06, base $13.39, optimistic $22.74 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $6.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARCO?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.39 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ARCO?
The PEG ratio of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 0.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 36.4%, debt of 1.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARCO from its 52-week high?
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc trades at $6.98, about 25% below its 52-week high of $9.33 and 4% above the low of $6.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $6.98, calculated fair value $13.39 (+92%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARCO calculated?
We run Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.39 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc currently trades 48% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $6.98. Our model-based fair value is $13.39, about +92% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (47/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($6.06 to $22.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The market capitalisation of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Earnings per share at Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc are $1.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The dividend yield of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 4.0% (payout 23.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The net margin of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 5.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 36.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
The operating margin of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Revenue at Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is growing +14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO)?
Earnings per share at Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc are growing +99.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) carry?
The net debt of Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc is $1.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026