Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.8B
Arcos Dorados Holdings
ARCO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $12.94 to $12.99 (+0.4%) since Jul 5, 2026. Share price +0.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 58% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.51 to $24.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.96 – $12.12 · fair‑value band $6.51 – $24.21 · the $8.24 price screens below the $12.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) currently trades at $8.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.99, implying the stock looks roughly 57.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arcos Dorados Holdings generated revenue of $4.8B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 12.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.3%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.51 (bear case) to $24.21 (bull case); at $8.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 58%, ARCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($18.63) versus Asset-Based ($2.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, …
Full company description
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. operates as a franchisee of McDonald's restaurants. It has the exclusive right to own, operate, and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 21 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas, and Venezuela. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. was founded in 2007 and is based in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arcos Dorados Holdings reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.2%/yr. Reported net income was $212M in FY2025, compounding +47.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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