Saul Centers Inc (BFS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Saul Centers Inc stock $17.62, price $28.54, that is 38.3% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.12 – $41.34 · fair‑value band $11.02 – $35.09 · the $28.54 price screens above the $17.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow Saul Centers in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Saul Centers is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 62 properties which includes (a) 59 community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties with approximately 10.5 million square feet of leasable area and (b) three land and development properties.
Show moreShow less
Over 85% of the Saul Centers' property operating income is generated by properties in the metropolitan Washington, DC/Baltimore area. Saul Centers, Inc. was established on June 10, 1993 and incorporated in Maryland, USA.
Stock analysis
Saul Centers Inc (BFS) currently trades at $28.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.62, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $28.92 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the $28.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.10, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.02 (bear) to $35.09 (bull), the price of $28.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Saul Centers Inc reported revenue of $292M in FY2025 versus $239M in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $37.5M in FY2025, compounding +88.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B Small · P/E ratio 29.4 · P/S ratio 3.78 · EPS (TTM) $0.9800 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 9.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −38%, BFS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.02Fair Value $17.62Bull$35.09
Price $28.54 · Downside -38.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 24 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.2% vs −3.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 41%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−38.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.6% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)15.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)41.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity4.73× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.34× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA17.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG44.97× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)42· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Saul Centers Inc (BFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.62 versus a price of $28.54, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BFS?
Our model-based fair value for Saul Centers Inc is $17.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.54.
What is the quality score of BFS?
Saul Centers Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $35.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saul Centers Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.62, about 38% lower versus a price of $28.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $35.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Saul Centers Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $302M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Saul Centers Inc pay a dividend?
Saul Centers Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 8.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Saul Centers Inc (BFS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Saul Centers Inc pays a dividend of $2.36 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1993. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.71 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saul Centers Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BFS use?
Our models discount Saul Centers Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saul Centers Inc that is +15.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saul Centers Inc (BFS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saul Centers Inc grew +5.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saul Centers Inc (BFS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saul Centers Inc (+15.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.44 %: that much free cash flow Saul Centers Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saul Centers Inc it is $17.62 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $28.54. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Saul Centers Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, BFS trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.54, fair value $17.62, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BFS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.62). For Saul Centers Inc the two are $10.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saul Centers Inc worth?
The market values Saul Centers Inc at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $28.54; our models calculate a fair value of $17.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BFS?
Our models span a range for Saul Centers Inc: cautious scenario $11.02, base $17.62, optimistic $35.09 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $28.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BFS?
Saul Centers Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 20.7. Other multiples: PEG 45.0, P/B 3.3, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 17.8.
What is the PEG ratio of BFS?
The PEG ratio of Saul Centers Inc is 44.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saul Centers Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.6%, debt of 4.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BFS from its 52-week high?
Saul Centers Inc trades at $28.54, about 22% below its 52-week high of $36.52 and 4% above the low of $27.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saul Centers Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saul Centers Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $28.54, calculated fair value $17.62 (−38%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BFS calculated?
We run Saul Centers Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $17.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Saul Centers Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $28.54. Our model-based fair value is $17.62, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saul Centers Inc right now?
Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($11.02 to $35.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Saul Centers Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The market capitalisation of Saul Centers Inc is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saul Centers Inc is 3.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Earnings per share at Saul Centers Inc are $0.9800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The dividend yield of Saul Centers Inc is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The net margin of Saul Centers Inc is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saul Centers Inc is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saul Centers Inc is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
The operating margin of Saul Centers Inc is 41.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Revenue at Saul Centers Inc is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saul Centers Inc (BFS)?
Earnings per share at Saul Centers Inc are growing −26.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saul Centers Inc (BFS) carry?
The net debt of Saul Centers Inc is $1.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Saul Centers Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Saul Centers Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 6, 2026