Saul Centers, Inc (BFS) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.2B
Saul Centers, Inc
BFS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.10 – $42.89 · fair‑value band $19.49 – $29.68 · the $34.01 price screens above the $23.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Saul Centers, Inc (BFS) currently trades at $34.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.92, implying the stock looks roughly 29.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Saul Centers, Inc generated revenue of $296M at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.49 (bear case) to $29.68 (bull case); at $34.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -30%, BFS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($31.46) versus Growth DCF ($2.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 62 properties which includes (a) 59 community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties with approximately 10.5 million square feet of leasable area and (b) three land and …
Full company description
Saul Centers, Inc. is a self-managed, self-administered equity REIT headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, which currently operates and manages a real estate portfolio of 62 properties which includes (a) 59 community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties with approximately 10.5 million square feet of leasable area and (b) three land and development properties. Over 85% of the Saul Centers' property operating income is generated by properties in the metropolitan Washington, DC/Baltimore area. Saul Centers, Inc. was established on June 10, 1993 and incorporated in Maryland, USA.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Saul Centers, Inc reported revenue of $292M in FY2025 versus $239M in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $37.5M in FY2025, compounding +88.6%/yr from FY2021.
BFS screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Simon Property Group →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Saul Centers, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Earnings
- Saul Centers Declares Quarterly Dividends
- Saul Centers Results Put Hampden House Expansion And Profit Pressure In Focus
- Saul Centers: Q1 Earnings Snapshot
Peer Group
REIT - Retail · 107 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Property Group SPG | $229.78 | $86.11 | -63% |
| Realty Income Corporation O | $65.60 | $30.71 | -53% |
| Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE URW | €103.65 | €101.67 | -2% |
| Kimco Realty Corporation KIM | $26.10 | $12.60 | -52% |
| CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT or the Trust) C38U | 2.47 SGD | 0.9100 SGD | -63% |
| Scentre Group SCG | A$3.93 | A$3.34 | -15% |
| Regency Centers Corporation REG | $82.15 | $33.69 | -59% |
| Link Real Estate Investment Trust (Link REIT) 0823 | HK$39.22 | HK$41.98 | +7% |
| Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT | $126.08 | $41.96 | -67% |
| Brixmor Property Group BRX | $32.44 | $13.18 | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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