British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock $67.55, price $63.08, upside +7.1%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.12 – $64.75 · fair‑value band $40.17 – $97.36 · the $63.08 price screens below the $67.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Canada, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Africa.
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The company offers vapour products; heated products, which consists of a battery-powered device and a plant-based substance consumable that is heated; modern oral products, such as nicotine pouches; combustibles, including cigarette sticks and other tobacco stick products; traditional oral products, such as snus and moist snuff; and fine cut/roll-your-own tobacco products.
It sells its products under the Vuse, glo, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall, Rothmans, Newport, Natural American Spirit, and Camel Snus brands, as well as Vogue, Viceroy, Kool, Peter Stuyvesant, Craven A, and State Express 555 brands.
The company distributes its products to retail outlets. British American Tobacco p.l.c. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) currently trades at $63.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $67.55, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $82.72 per share, and 9 of the 22 models we run sit above the $63.08 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $20.43, and 13 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $40.17 (bear) to $97.36 (bull), the price of $63.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. reported revenue of £25.6B in FY2025 versus £25.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was £7.8B in FY2025, compounding +3.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $137B Large · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 4.90 · EPS (TTM) $3.90 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 30.3% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 7%, BTI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$40.17Fair Value $67.55Bull$97.36
Price $63.08 · Upside +7.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.6% vs 6.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.39% → 39%
2025 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Strong brand pricing power and scale form the core strength, while regulatory risks and weak innovation signals represent the main weaknesses.
Main risk: Cheaper illicit cigarettes and vapes could take customers from BAT's legal products in markets such as South Africa and the US, pressuring volumes and margins.
Bull case: BAT could strengthen enforcement partnerships and premium positioning in new categories to limit illicit gains while accelerating Velo adoption through targeted marketing.
Bear case: Widespread illicit trade and rival gains in pouches could erode legal volumes across regions, slowing the shift to smokeless products and straining cash flows from the core business.
British American Tobacco is cutting jobs worldwide to simplify operations and tap AI for higher efficiency and lower costs. It pairs this with its Horizon 2030 push into New Categories. Will the efficiency gains and new revenue streams offset pressures from traditional markets?
Compare British American Tobacco p.l.c. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 30 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+7.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.4% · Below median
Return on assets7.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)25.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.86× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "British American Tobacco p.l.c. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTI
Frequently asked questions
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $67.55 versus a price of $63.08, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BTI?
Our model-based fair value for British American Tobacco p.l.c. is $67.55 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $63.08.
What is the quality score of BTI?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $67.55 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.17, optimistic scenario $97.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $67.55, about +7% upside versus a price of $63.08 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $40.17, optimistic scenario $97.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does British American Tobacco p.l.c. pay a dividend?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.88% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, British American Tobacco p.l.c. would have to grow free cash flow by +11.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTI use?
Our models discount British American Tobacco p.l.c. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For British American Tobacco p.l.c. that is +11.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at British American Tobacco p.l.c. grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies +11.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into British American Tobacco p.l.c. (+11.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.22 %: that much free cash flow British American Tobacco p.l.c. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For British American Tobacco p.l.c. it is $67.55 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $63.08. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, BTI trades below its calculated fair value: price $63.08, fair value $67.55, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($63.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($67.55). For British American Tobacco p.l.c. the two are $4.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is British American Tobacco p.l.c. worth?
The market values British American Tobacco p.l.c. at about $137B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $63.08; our models calculate a fair value of $67.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTI?
Our models span a range for British American Tobacco p.l.c.: cautious scenario $40.17, base $67.55, optimistic $97.36 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $63.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BTI?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $67.55 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 13.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 2.9, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
What is the PEG ratio of BTI?
The PEG ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
Balance-sheet figures for British American Tobacco p.l.c. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BTI from its 52-week high?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. trades at $63.08, about 3% below its 52-week high of $64.75 and 24% above the low of $50.88 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $67.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to British American Tobacco p.l.c.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, Altria Group, KT&G Corporation, Smoore International Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $63.08, calculated fair value $67.55 (+7%), Quality Score 74/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTI calculated?
We run British American Tobacco p.l.c. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $67.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. British American Tobacco p.l.c. currently trades 7% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $63.08. Our model-based fair value is $67.55, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with British American Tobacco p.l.c. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($40.17 to $97.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) come from?
Earnings per share at British American Tobacco p.l.c. grew +3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of British American Tobacco p.l.c.
How large is the market capitalisation of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The market capitalisation of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is $137B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 4.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
Earnings per share at British American Tobacco p.l.c. are $3.90 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The dividend yield of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 3.9% (payout 62.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The net margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 30.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
The operating margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 34.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
Revenue at British American Tobacco p.l.c. is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI)?
Earnings per share at British American Tobacco p.l.c. are growing −28.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI) carry?
The net debt of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is $31.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026