Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc stock $6.32, price $11.46, that is 44.8% below the price, quality 23 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.83 – $33.07 · fair‑value band $4.73 – $9.44 · the $11.46 price screens above the $6.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. operates as a steel producer in the United States and Canada.
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It offers hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and coated products, such as aluminized, electrogalvanized, and galvalume products, as well as galvanneal and hot-dipped galvanized products; stainless and electrical products, including GOES, NOES, and auto chrome; plate products; and slab and other steel products.
The company also provides non- steelmaking products comprising stamped components, tool and die, and tubing; and scrap, iron ore, HBI, coal, and coke products. It also provides tubular components, including carbon steel, stainless steel, and electric resistance welded tubing products.
In addition, the company is involved in the mining of iron ore; production of pellets and direct reduced iron; and processing of ferrous scrap through primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing.
It serves direct automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, distributors and converters, and steel producers. The company was formerly known as Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. and changed its name to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. in August 2017.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) currently trades at $11.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.32, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $4.73 (bear) to $9.44 (bull), the price of $11.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc reported revenue of $18.6B in FY2025 versus $20.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.5B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6B Mid · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8300 · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.7% · Revenue (TTM) $20.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −45%, CLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$4.73Fair Value $6.32Bull$9.44
Price $11.46 · Downside -44.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$2.78$3.72$5.5554
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.78$3.72$5.5554
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $99,826, on Oct 22, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $2.9M.
BuyEdilson CamaraDirector2× since Feb 13, 2026: 27,100 shares, avg. $11.05$299,387Oct 22, 2026
SaleCelso L Goncalves JrEVP, CFO214,308 shares at $13.41$2.9MJun 5, 2026
SaleClifford T SmithEVP & Chief Operating Officer200,000 shares at $10.46$2.1MFeb 17, 2026
SaleLourenco GoncalvesChairman, President & CEO, Director3,000,000 shares at $12.42$37.3MFeb 11, 2026
Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.7% (2020) → −7.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Commodity steel exposure forms the core activity with no evident strengths, while negative margins and cash flows stand as the central limitation on durable advantages.
Main risk: Lower-cost electric arc furnace producers such as Nucor and Steel Dynamics could capture more market share or force price pressure due to Cleveland-Cliffs higher production costs from traditional blast furnaces.
Bull case: By deploying AI platforms for operational efficiency and renegotiating contracts the company could narrow its cost disadvantage relative to electric arc furnace producers.
Bear case: If lower-cost electric arc furnace rivals continue to gain share persistent margin pressure could limit recovery and strain the ability to manage debt obligations.
Cliffs' Stelco unit in Canada is moving ahead with hundreds of layoffs at the Hamilton plant after citing unprofitable galvanized steel production amid tariffs and trade issues, despite Ottawa's warnings over employment commitments from the acquisition. This creates friction in managing cross-border steel assets under volatile market conditions. Will settling these labor and regulatory matters allow focus on US operations, or will the tensions continue to complicate the business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−44.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.19× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.33× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.43× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)93· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)41· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cleveland-Cliffs Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.32 versus a price of $11.46, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CLF?
Our model-based fair value for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is $6.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.46.
What is the quality score of CLF?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.73, optimistic scenario $9.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cleveland-Cliffs Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.32, about 45% lower versus a price of $11.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.73, optimistic scenario $9.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cleveland-Cliffs Inc it is $6.32 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $11.46. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.46, fair value $6.32, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.32). For Cleveland-Cliffs Inc the two are $5.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc worth?
The market values Cleveland-Cliffs Inc at about $6.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $11.46; our models calculate a fair value of $6.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CLF?
Our models span a range for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: cautious scenario $4.73, base $6.32, optimistic $9.44 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $11.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CLF?
The PEG ratio of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is 0.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −7.3%, debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CLF from its 52-week high?
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc trades at $11.46, about 24% below its 52-week high of $15.09 and 47% above the low of $7.82 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cleveland-Cliffs Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cleveland-Cliffs Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $11.46, calculated fair value $6.32 (−45%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CLF calculated?
We run Cleveland-Cliffs Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.46. Our model-based fair value is $6.32, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cleveland-Cliffs Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($4.73 to $9.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
The market capitalisation of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is $6.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is 0.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
Earnings per share at Cleveland-Cliffs Inc are $−0.8300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
The net margin of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is −2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is −7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
The operating margin of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF)?
Revenue at Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is growing +18.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) generate?
The free cash flow of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is −$1.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) carry?
The net debt of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is $8.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
