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Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Clearwater Paper Corporation stock $34.20, price $13.27, upside +157.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

CP Clearwater Paper Corporation logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Clearwater Paper Corporation

CLW · US
Meets all rules

The stock costs 61% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $34.20 · Strongly undervalued
Low debt
Generates free cash flow over the last twelve months
Positive coverage
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 92% above the price ($25.52).
Quality 51/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.6 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -3.2% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 18/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$56.09 $12.44 Fair Value $34.20 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.44 – $56.09 · fair‑value band $25.52 – $51.04 · the $13.27 price screens below the $34.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Clearwater Paper Corporation manufactures and supplies solid bleached sulfate (SBS) paperboard packaging products in the United States and internationally.

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The company offers SBS paperboard for use in folding cartons, food service, and commercial printing items; folding carton paperboards, such as blister, carded packaging, and top sheet products; food service paperboard, including liquid packaging, and cup and plate categories, as well as rigid containers comprising juice, milk, and wine; and custom sheeting and slitting of paperboard products.

It serves packaging converters through sales managers. The company was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Spokane, Washington.

Stock analysis

Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) currently trades at $13.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.20, implying the stock looks roughly 61% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $25.52 (bear) to $51.04 (bull), the price of $13.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Clearwater Paper Corporation reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$18.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $214M Micro · P/S ratio 0.15 · EPS (TTM) $−2.03 · Net margin −3.2% · Return on equity −10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −10.4% · Revenue (TTM) $1.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at 158%, CLW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $25.52 Fair Value $34.20 Bull $51.04
Price $13.27 · Upside +157.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $25.52 $34.20 $51.04 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $25.52 $34.20 $51.04 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 23
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 82
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 43
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 78
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 24
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 5
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 91
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleSteve M BowdenSr. V.P.8,889 shares at $18.14$161,246Nov 28, 202510b5-1 plan

Plus 4 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 6/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.5% (2020) → 0.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside +157.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −3.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −10.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −4.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.41× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.14× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 21.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.21× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)80 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$4.62 HK$7.54 +63% vs CLW
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 6,425 IDR 10,483 IDR +63% vs CLW
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 898.00 CLP 1,241 CLP +38% vs CLW
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥15.86 ¥21.06 +33% vs CLW
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.94 €24.27 +22% vs CLW
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.12 ¥16.93 +20% vs CLW
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €22.46 €21.19 −6% vs CLW
The Navigator Company NVG €3.04 €2.49 −18% vs CLW
Billerud AB BILL kr 88.20 kr 68.44 −22% vs CLW
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.66 $5.24 −46% vs CLW

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Clearwater Paper Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Clearwater Paper Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CLW

Frequently asked questions

Is Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.20 versus a price of $13.27, about +158% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CLW?
Our model-based fair value for Clearwater Paper Corporation is $34.20 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.27.
What is the quality score of CLW?
Clearwater Paper Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.20 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.52, optimistic scenario $51.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Clearwater Paper Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.20, about +158% upside versus a price of $13.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $25.52, optimistic scenario $51.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Clearwater Paper Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Clearwater Paper Corporation it is $34.20 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $13.27. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Clearwater Paper Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CLW trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.27, fair value $34.20, a gap of about +158% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CLW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.20). For Clearwater Paper Corporation the two are $20.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Clearwater Paper Corporation worth?
The market values Clearwater Paper Corporation at about $214M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $13.27; our models calculate a fair value of $34.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CLW?
Our models span a range for Clearwater Paper Corporation: cautious scenario $25.52, base $34.20, optimistic $51.04 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $13.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CLW?
The PEG ratio of Clearwater Paper Corporation is 3.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Clearwater Paper Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −10.4%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CLW from its 52-week high?
Clearwater Paper Corporation trades at $13.27, about 43% below its 52-week high of $23.31 and 7% above the low of $12.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Clearwater Paper Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Clearwater Paper Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $13.27, calculated fair value $34.20 (+158%), Quality Score 51/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CLW calculated?
We run Clearwater Paper Corporation through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $34.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Clearwater Paper Corporation currently trades 61% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $13.27. Our model-based fair value is $34.20, about +158% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Clearwater Paper Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($25.52). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($25.52 to $51.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Clearwater Paper Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
The market capitalisation of Clearwater Paper Corporation is $214M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Clearwater Paper Corporation is 0.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Earnings per share at Clearwater Paper Corporation are $−2.03. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
The net margin of Clearwater Paper Corporation is −3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Clearwater Paper Corporation is −10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Clearwater Paper Corporation is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
The operating margin of Clearwater Paper Corporation is −10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Revenue at Clearwater Paper Corporation is growing −4.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)?
Earnings per share at Clearwater Paper Corporation are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) generate?
The free cash flow of Clearwater Paper Corporation is −$76.5K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) carry?
The net debt of Clearwater Paper Corporation is $422M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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