Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc stock $38.72, price $35.40, upside +9.4%, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 76/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +14.8 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 11.4% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers(9/14)
Wide moat77/100
50% return on equity.
Fair value $38.72 · Fairly valued (+9.4%)
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $95,631 (6M)
Some data
Quality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Traffic decline and pulled-back diners resulting in flat sales and lowered guidance🚩Labor law compliance and union disputes🚩Reliance on third-party delivery platforms🚩Substitution by grocery retailers
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.08 – $68.55 · fair‑value band $22.65 – $50.32 · the $35.40 price screens below the $38.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides.
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It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms.
It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Stock analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) currently trades at $35.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.72, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $29.05 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $35.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $11.28, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.65 (bear) to $50.32 (bull), the price of $35.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc reported revenue of $11.9B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +23.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $45.7B Large · P/E ratio 32.5 · P/S ratio 3.68 · EPS (TTM) $1.09 · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 49.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.3% · Operating margin 16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 9%, CMG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$22.65Fair Value $38.72Bull$50.32
Price $35.40 · Upside +9.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9258 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $95,631 and none bought.
SaleMatthew R BushController, PAO2,675 shares at $35.75$95,631Aug 21, 2026
SalePatricia FilikrushelDirector3,350 shares at $36.58$122,543Feb 24, 2026
SaleCurtis E GarnerPres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off3× since Dec 1, 2025: 190,615 shares, avg. $36.87$7.0MFeb 6, 2026
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+35.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+35.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.35.5% vs 15.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.3% a year for the price and +6.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Brand and returns support a moderate moat, yet limited innovation and human capital constrain durability.
Main risk: Ongoing labor law violations and unionization efforts could lead to higher compliance costs, settlements or operational disruptions at restaurants.
Bull case: Chipotle could strengthen its in-restaurant experience and loyalty program while using automation selectively to improve efficiency without replacing core human service.
Bear case: Persistent labor issues and delivery fee pressures combined with grocery substitution could erode margins and traffic, limiting independent growth.
Chipotle posted nearly flat comparable sales in its third quarter as traffic declined and diners pulled back across income groups. Management cut full-year comparable sales guidance to a low-single-digit decline while introducing limited-time items such as mesquite-smoked brisket to lift visits. Will these menu innovations and marketing steps reverse the traffic weakness or will broader consumer caution keep weighing on results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)49.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.3% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
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Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.72 versus a price of $35.40, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CMG?
Our model-based fair value for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is $38.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.40.
What is the quality score of CMG?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.72 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.65, optimistic scenario $50.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.72, about +9% upside versus a price of $35.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $22.65, optimistic scenario $50.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMG use?
Our models discount Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.96, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc that is +16.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +16.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (+16.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.17 %: that much free cash flow Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc it is $38.72 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $35.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, CMG trades below its calculated fair value: price $35.40, fair value $38.72, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.72). For Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc the two are $3.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc worth?
The market values Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc at about $45.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $35.40; our models calculate a fair value of $38.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMG?
Our models span a range for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc: cautious scenario $22.65, base $38.72, optimistic $50.32 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $35.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMG?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 16.1, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 19.9.
What is the PEG ratio of CMG?
The PEG ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 49.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMG from its 52-week high?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc trades at $35.40, about 13% below its 52-week high of $40.87 and 29% above the low of $27.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Restaurant Brands International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $35.40, calculated fair value $38.72 (+9%), Quality Score 76/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMG calculated?
We run Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $35.40. Our model-based fair value is $38.72, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($22.65 to $50.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) come from?
Earnings per share at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc grew +20.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate +2.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The market capitalisation of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is $45.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is 3.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Earnings per share at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc are $1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The net margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is 11.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is 49.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is 18.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
The operating margin of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Revenue at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)?
Earnings per share at Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc are growing −1.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) carry?
The net debt of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is $9.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026