Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Costco Wholesale Corp stock $437, price $1,046, that is 58.2% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $396.52 – $1,093 · fair‑value band $314.64 – $546.53 · the $1,046 price screens above the $437.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.
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It offers merchandise, including sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, deli, liquor, and tobacco; non-food merchandise comprising appliances, small electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, lawn and garden, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal, automotive, stamps, tickets, apparel, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and fresh food, such as meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products.
The company is also involved in warehouse ancillary operations, which include gasoline, pharmacies, optical, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers. In addition, it engages in e-commerce, business centers, travel, and other businesses.
The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.
Stock analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) currently trades at $1,046, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $437.22, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $504.76 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,046 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $52.40, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $314.64 (bear) to $546.53 (bull), the price of $1,046 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Costco Wholesale Corp reported revenue of $303B in FY2026 versus $227B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $9.2B in FY2026, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $464B Mega · P/E ratio 50.4 · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) $20.76 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 28.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (high confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −58%, COST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$314.64Fair Value $437.22Bull$546.53
Price $1,046 · Downside -58.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 2 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.81 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleKenneth D DenmanDirector885 shares at $957.45$847,343Jun 23, 2026
SaleTeresa A. JonesExecutive Vice President850 shares at $986.26$838,321Jan 21, 2026
SaleSusan L DeckerDirector458 shares at $955.00$437,390Jan 16, 2026
SaleJames C KlauerExecutive Vice President1,500 shares at $939.00$1.4MJan 14, 2026
SaleRussell D MillerSr. Executive Vice President1,500 shares at $916.32$1.4MJan 9, 2026
SaleJavier PolitExecutive Vice President2,607 shares at $866.29$2.3MDec 30, 2025
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 41 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.0% vs 14.5%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.2% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Costco draws strength from durable scale and membership advantages with clean governance, yet limited innovation signals and thin retail margins constrain its overall power.
Main risk: Walmart's new combined Walmart+ and Sam's Club membership and Amazon Prime could draw households away from Costco's paid membership or force it to lower prices to retain traffic and fees.
Bull case: Costco could deepen its membership value through exclusive AI-optimized discovery and private-label innovation while expanding delivery partnerships without ceding control of the customer relationship.
Bear case: Intensifying competition from integrated membership offerings by Walmart and Amazon together with persistent supply-chain legal pressures could erode membership renewal rates and force sustained margin concessions across categories.
Costco is seeing triple-digit growth in website traffic from AI searches for the second quarter in a row, with that channel delivering the highest conversion rates of any source. This comes as pharmacy sales also grew nearly 20 percent last fiscal year, both adding to the membership-driven model without paid digital ads. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will these digital and ancillary gains strengthen the core business enough to justify the premium, or will they remain too small to shift the overall picture?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−58.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)50.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B12.96× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.53× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow49.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.43× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 84
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $437.22 versus a price of $1,046, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of COST?
Our model-based fair value for Costco Wholesale Corp is $437.22 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,046.
What is the quality score of COST?
Costco Wholesale Corp has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $437.22 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $314.64, optimistic scenario $546.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Costco Wholesale Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $437.22, about 58% lower versus a price of $1,046 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $314.64, optimistic scenario $546.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Costco Wholesale Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $303B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Costco Wholesale Corp pay a dividend?
Costco Wholesale Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Costco Wholesale Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +22.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COST use?
Our models discount Costco Wholesale Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Costco Wholesale Corp that is +22.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Costco Wholesale Corp grew +9.1 % a year. The price currently implies +22.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Costco Wholesale Corp (+22.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.02 %: that much free cash flow Costco Wholesale Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Costco Wholesale Corp it is $437.22 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $1,046. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Costco Wholesale Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, COST trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,046, fair value $437.22, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,046); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($437.22). For Costco Wholesale Corp the two are $609.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Costco Wholesale Corp worth?
The market values Costco Wholesale Corp at about $464B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $1,046; our models calculate a fair value of $437.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COST?
Our models span a range for Costco Wholesale Corp: cautious scenario $314.64, base $437.22, optimistic $546.53 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $1,046). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COST?
Costco Wholesale Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $437.22 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2019, FY2026 ex one-offs: 39.3. Other multiples: PEG 4.4, P/B 13.0, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 31.7.
What is the PEG ratio of COST?
The PEG ratio of Costco Wholesale Corp is 4.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Costco Wholesale Corp (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 28.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COST from its 52-week high?
Costco Wholesale Corp trades at $1,046, about 4% below its 52-week high of $1,093 and 24% above the low of $846.27 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $437.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Costco Wholesale Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, Dollar General Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Costco Wholesale Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $1,046, calculated fair value $437.22 (−58%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COST calculated?
We run Costco Wholesale Corp through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $437.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Costco Wholesale Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $1,046. Our model-based fair value is $437.22, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Costco Wholesale Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($546.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) come from?
Earnings per share at Costco Wholesale Corp grew +14.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Costco Wholesale Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The market capitalisation of Costco Wholesale Corp is $464B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Costco Wholesale Corp is 1.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Earnings per share at Costco Wholesale Corp are $20.76 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The dividend yield of Costco Wholesale Corp is 0.5% (payout 26.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The net margin of Costco Wholesale Corp is 3.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Costco Wholesale Corp is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Costco Wholesale Corp is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
The operating margin of Costco Wholesale Corp is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Revenue at Costco Wholesale Corp is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)?
Earnings per share at Costco Wholesale Corp are growing +15.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Costco Wholesale Corp (COST) hold?
Costco Wholesale Corp holds more cash than debt, $11.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026