Copa Holdings SA (CPA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Copa Holdings SA stock $166, price $143, upside +16.3%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.70 – $155.11 · fair‑value band $82.11 – $243.06 · the $142.80 price screens below the $166.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
Follow Copa Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Copa Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 125 aircraft.
Show moreShow less
The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama.
Stock analysis
Copa Holdings SA (CPA) currently trades at $142.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $166.14, implying the stock looks roughly 14% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $283.44 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the $142.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $43.42, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $82.11 (bear) to $243.06 (bull), the price of $142.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Copa Holdings SA reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +24.4%/yr. Reported net income was $672M in FY2025, compounding +97.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $5.8B Mid · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) $15.31 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 23.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 16%, CPA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$82.11Fair Value $166.14Bull$243.06
Price $142.80 · Upside +16.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$74.47$146.08$258.0376
Growth DCF$74.16$140.64$241.0974
Owner Earnings$57.62$118.20$212.9072
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$74.47$146.08$258.0376
Owner Earnings$57.62$118.20$212.9072
5Y Revenue Exit$73.78$149.57$250.1669
5Y EBITDA Exit$169.55$340.27$551.1472
5Y P/E Exit$155.65$312.60$488.0568
10Y Revenue Exit$69.43$138.88$240.3263
10Y EBITDA Exit$133.24$271.04$475.3064
10Y P/E Exit$124.48$251.86$426.0461
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$111.65$456.92$622.1961
Lynch FV$114.71$163.87$213.0358
PEG = 1.0$114.71$163.87$213.0355
EPV$119.87$143.56$163.8472
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$55.64$108.35$160.2865
DDM Multi-Stage$55.64$94.86$114.7165
Multiples
P/E Multiple$258.61$344.81$431.0261
P/S Multiple$132.67$176.89$221.1156
P/B Multiple$113.07$150.76$188.4553
EV/EBIT$201.95$287.04$372.1364
EV/EBITDA$228.92$323.00$417.0865
EV/Revenue$58.13$105.89$153.6551
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$32.40$43.42$64.8152
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$74.16$140.64$241.0974
Rev-Margin DCF$73.78$148.32$240.8769
Economic Profit
Residual Income$94.98$126.25$222.5772
ROIC Compounder$134.41$185.14$249.2370
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$198.41$283.44$368.4766
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $25,535 and none bought.
SaleJuan Alberto Mr AlvaradoChief Accounting Officer174 shares at $146.75$25,535Jun 18, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+34.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36.5% vs 7.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−58% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Copa's efficient Panama hub and Starlink rollout support higher load factors and passenger experience, yet intense regional competition and fuel volatility limit its durable moat and margin stability.
Main risk: Disruption at Tocumen airport from storms, infrastructure failure or congestion could halt Copa’s entire network with no scalable fallback routing.
Bull case: Copa could mitigate hub risk by adding flexible routing options and use its efficient network plus Starlink upgrades to maintain high load factors despite regional LCC pressure.
Bear case: Repeated Tocumen disruptions combined with aggressive LCC expansion and Boeing delays could force Copa to cut routes, accept lower yields and face sustained margin pressure.
Copa's efficient Panama hub and disciplined capacity growth have helped traffic outpace seat additions, lifting load factors in recent months. At the same time the company is rolling out Starlink connectivity fleet-wide by mid-2027, a potential edge in passenger experience across Latin America. Will these network strengths and new services support margins better than fuel volatility and regional competition erode them?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+16.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Copa Holdings SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CPA
Frequently asked questions
Is Copa Holdings SA (CPA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $166.14 versus a price of $142.80, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CPA?
Our model-based fair value for Copa Holdings SA is $166.14 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $142.80.
What is the quality score of CPA?
Copa Holdings SA has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $166.14 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $82.11, optimistic scenario $243.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Copa Holdings SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $166.14, about +16% upside versus a price of $142.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $82.11, optimistic scenario $243.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Copa Holdings SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Copa Holdings SA pay a dividend?
Copa Holdings SA currently shows a dividend yield of 4.65% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Copa Holdings SA (CPA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Copa Holdings SA pays a dividend of $6.64 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 31, 2026. The payout ratio is 43.4% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.55 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Copa Holdings SA would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +35.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CPA use?
Our models discount Copa Holdings SA at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.03, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Copa Holdings SA that is +10.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Copa Holdings SA (CPA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Copa Holdings SA grew +35.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Copa Holdings SA (CPA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Copa Holdings SA (+10.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.27 %: that much free cash flow Copa Holdings SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Copa Holdings SA it is $166.14 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $142.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Copa Holdings SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CPA trades below its calculated fair value: price $142.80, fair value $166.14, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($142.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($166.14). For Copa Holdings SA the two are $23.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Copa Holdings SA worth?
The market values Copa Holdings SA at about $5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $142.80; our models calculate a fair value of $166.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPA?
Our models span a range for Copa Holdings SA: cautious scenario $82.11, base $166.14, optimistic $243.06 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $142.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CPA?
Copa Holdings SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $166.14 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 11.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of CPA?
The PEG ratio of Copa Holdings SA is 0.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Copa Holdings SA (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 23.1%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CPA from its 52-week high?
Copa Holdings SA trades at $142.80, about 8% below its 52-week high of $155.11 and 36% above the low of $105.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $166.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Copa Holdings SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Copa Holdings SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $142.80, calculated fair value $166.14 (+16%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPA calculated?
We run Copa Holdings SA through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $166.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Copa Holdings SA currently trades 14% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $142.80. Our model-based fair value is $166.14, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Copa Holdings SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($82.11 to $243.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Copa Holdings SA (CPA) come from?
Earnings per share at Copa Holdings SA grew +7.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Copa Holdings SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The market capitalisation of Copa Holdings SA is $5.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Copa Holdings SA is 1.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Earnings per share at Copa Holdings SA are $15.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The dividend yield of Copa Holdings SA is 4.6% (payout 43.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The net margin of Copa Holdings SA is 15.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Copa Holdings SA is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Copa Holdings SA is 10.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
The operating margin of Copa Holdings SA is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Revenue at Copa Holdings SA is growing +25.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Copa Holdings SA (CPA)?
Earnings per share at Copa Holdings SA are growing −53.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Copa Holdings SA (CPA) carry?
The net debt of Copa Holdings SA is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Copa Holdings SA in the live analysis
One click puts Copa Holdings SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 7, 2026