Copa Holdings (CPA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.7B
Copa Holdings
CPA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $243.75 to $158.88 (−34.8%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($75.02 to $243.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from $75.02 (bear) to $243.39 (bull), base $158.88. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 56/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $46.31 – $157.19 · fair‑value band $75.02 – $243.39 · the $142.13 price screens below the $158.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Copa Holdings (CPA) currently trades at $142.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $158.88, implying the stock looks roughly 11.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Copa Holdings generated revenue of $3.8B at a net margin of 18.8%. Revenue grew 17.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.4%. Net debt stands at $2.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $75.02 (bear case) to $243.39 (bull case); at $142.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 12%, CPA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($281.03) versus Asset-Based ($45.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Copa Holdings, S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger, and cargo and mail transportation services in North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, it operated through a fleet of 125 aircraft. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Panama City, Panama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Copa Holdings reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +24.4%/yr. Reported net income was $672M in FY2025, compounding +97.8%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Copa Holdings (CPA) Stock Still Looks Reasonable On Strong Q2 Results
- Copa Holdings SA (CPA) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Solid Profit Amid Fuel Cost Surge, ...
- Copa projects 17%-19% 2026 operating margin as it targets 14%-15% capacity growth
- Copa Holdings Q2 Earnings Miss on Higher Fuel Costs, Revenues Lag
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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