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Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Custom Truck One Source Inc stock $12.82, price $9.33, upside +37.4%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

CT Custom Truck One Source Inc logo Some data Nov 9, 2026

Custom Truck One Source Inc

CTOS · US
Speculative

The stock costs 27% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $12.82 · Undervalued
Upbeat coverage
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +45.1 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin (TTM)
Some data
Costs 93 times its yearly profit.
Quality 36/100
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 30/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.97 $3.11 Fair Value $12.82 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.11 – $11.97 · fair‑value band $6.96 – $18.67 · the $9.33 price screens below the $12.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental and sale services to electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, forestry, waste management, and other infrastructure-related industries in the United States and Canada.

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It operates through two segments: Specialty Equipment Rentals (SER); and Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing (STEM). The company owns new and used specialty equipment, including truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, service trucks, dump trucks, trailers, digger derricks, and other machinery and equipment.

It offers new equipment for sale to be used for end-markets, which can be modified to meet customers specific needs.

In addition, the company provides truck and equipment maintenance and repair services; and rents and sells specialized tools, including stringing blocks, insulated hot stick, and rigging equipment, as well as sale of specialized aftermarket parts.

The company was formerly known as Nesco Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Custom Truck One Source, Inc. in April 2021. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

Stock analysis

Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) currently trades at $9.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.82, implying the stock looks roughly 27% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at medium.

Scenario range: $6.96 (bear) to $18.67 (bull), the price of $9.33 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Custom Truck One Source Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$31.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.0B Mid · P/E ratio 93.3 · P/S ratio 1.00 · EPS (TTM) $0.1000 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 37%, CTOS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.96 Fair Value $12.82 Bull $18.67
Price $9.33 · Upside +37.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0858 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA $6.96 $12.82 $18.67 65
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $2.63 61
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a n/a $2.63 61
EV/EBITDA $6.96 $12.82 $18.67 65

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 15
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 22
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 6
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 53
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 27
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 56
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 80
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 83
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.7% (2020) → 7.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 85 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +37.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.7% · Below median
Return on assets −0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 9.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.00× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 93.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.52× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.00× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 16.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)83 · sector 72
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 39
PAST (return on equity)11 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 63
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
BOC Aviation Limited 2588 HK$80.10 HK$145.93 +82% vs CTOS
AerCap Holdings AER $169.64 $198.34 +17% vs CTOS
Element Fleet Management Corp EFN C$20.08 C$21.70 +8% vs CTOS
Sixt SE SIX2 €75.40 €74.96 −1% vs CTOS
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB $77.05 $65.76 −15% vs CTOS
GATX Corporation GATX $182.74 $129.05 −29% vs CTOS
Ryder System, Inc R $266.39 $161.31 −39% vs CTOS
United Rentals, Inc URI $1,056 $436.95 −59% vs CTOS
EquipmentShare.com Inc EQPT $14.68 $5.43 −63% vs CTOS
U-Haul Holding UHAL $56.74 $8.90 −84% vs CTOS

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Custom Truck One Source Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Custom Truck One Source Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CTOS

Frequently asked questions

Is Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.82 versus a price of $9.33, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CTOS?
Our model-based fair value for Custom Truck One Source Inc is $12.82 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.33.
What is the quality score of CTOS?
Custom Truck One Source Inc has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.82 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.96, optimistic scenario $18.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Custom Truck One Source Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.82, about +37% upside versus a price of $9.33 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.96, optimistic scenario $18.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Custom Truck One Source Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Custom Truck One Source Inc it is $12.82 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $9.33. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 1 family (Multiples).
Is Custom Truck One Source Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, CTOS trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.33, fair value $12.82, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CTOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.82). For Custom Truck One Source Inc the two are $3.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Custom Truck One Source Inc worth?
The market values Custom Truck One Source Inc at about $2.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $9.33; our models calculate a fair value of $12.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CTOS?
Our models span a range for Custom Truck One Source Inc: cautious scenario $6.96, base $12.82, optimistic $18.67 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $9.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CTOS?
Custom Truck One Source Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 93.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Custom Truck One Source Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 2.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CTOS from its 52-week high?
Custom Truck One Source Inc trades at $9.33, about 22% below its 52-week high of $11.97 and 75% above the low of $5.34 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Custom Truck One Source Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Custom Truck One Source Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $9.33, calculated fair value $12.82 (+37%), Quality Score 36/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CTOS calculated?
We run Custom Truck One Source Inc through 2 models from 1 family: Multiples. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.82 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Custom Truck One Source Inc currently trades 27% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $9.33. Our model-based fair value is $12.82, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Custom Truck One Source Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($6.96 to $18.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Custom Truck One Source Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
The market capitalisation of Custom Truck One Source Inc is $2.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Custom Truck One Source Inc is 1.00 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Earnings per share at Custom Truck One Source Inc are $0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 93.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
The net margin of Custom Truck One Source Inc is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Custom Truck One Source Inc is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Custom Truck One Source Inc is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
The operating margin of Custom Truck One Source Inc is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Revenue at Custom Truck One Source Inc is growing +10.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS)?
Earnings per share at Custom Truck One Source Inc are growing −26.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) generate?
The free cash flow of Custom Truck One Source Inc is −$108M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Custom Truck One Source Inc (CTOS) carry?
The net debt of Custom Truck One Source Inc is $2.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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