Dollarama Inc (DOL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dollarama Inc stock C$186, price C$219, that is 14.8% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$53.16 – C$220.00 · fair‑value band C$130.50 – C$242.36 · the C$218.70 price screens above the C$186.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Dollarama Inc. operates a chain of stores and provides related logistical and administrative support activities. Its stores offer general merchandise, consumables, and seasonal products. The company operates in Canada, Latin America, Colombia, Peru, Australia, and Mexico.
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It also sells its products through online store. The company was formerly known as Dollarama Capital Corporation and changed its name to Dollarama Inc. in September 2009. Dollarama Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Mount Royal, Canada.
Stock analysis
Dollarama Inc (DOL) currently trades at C$218.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$186.42, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$124.16 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$218.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$30.03, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$130.50 (bear) to C$242.36 (bull), the price of C$218.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Dollarama Inc reported revenue of C$7.3B in FY2026 versus C$4.3B in FY2022, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3B in FY2026, compounding +18.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap C$60.5B (≈ $43.2B) Large · P/E ratio 44.0 · P/S ratio 7.68 · EPS (TTM) C$4.97 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 93.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 84 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −15%, DOL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$130.50Fair Value C$186.42BullC$242.36
Price C$218.70 · Downside -14.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$3.47 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.2% vs 16.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 24%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.4% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Strong Canadian scale and margins support the moat while limited signals on innovation governance and alignment keep overall quality moderate.
Main risk: Ultra-low-price cross-border platforms such as Temu and Shein or Amazon could draw away price-sensitive customers for general merchandise and seasonal items or force Dollarama to cut prices and margins to retain them.
Dollarama keeps seeing solid transaction growth in Canada as shoppers hunt for value in a cautious environment. It is also rolling out its format in Australia via the Reject Shop and expanding Dollarcity in Mexico, yet those markets still face integration costs and margin headwinds from higher input prices. Will the international push add meaningful earnings or mainly test the limits of the model outside its home market?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)93.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets17.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dollarama Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DOL
Frequently asked questions
Is Dollarama Inc (DOL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$186.42 versus a price of C$218.70, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DOL?
Our model-based fair value for Dollarama Inc is C$186.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$218.70.
What is the quality score of DOL?
Dollarama Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$186.42 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$130.50, optimistic scenario C$242.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dollarama Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$186.42, about 15% lower versus a price of C$218.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$130.50, optimistic scenario C$242.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Dollarama Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$7.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Dollarama Inc pay a dividend?
Dollarama Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dollarama Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DOL use?
Our models discount Dollarama Inc at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dollarama Inc that is +17.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dollarama Inc (DOL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dollarama Inc grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +17.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dollarama Inc (DOL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dollarama Inc (+17.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.45 %: that much free cash flow Dollarama Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dollarama Inc it is C$186.42 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of C$218.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dollarama Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, DOL trades above its calculated fair value: price C$218.70, fair value C$186.42, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$218.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$186.42). For Dollarama Inc the two are C$32.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dollarama Inc worth?
The market values Dollarama Inc at about C$60.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is C$218.70; our models calculate a fair value of C$186.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOL?
Our models span a range for Dollarama Inc: cautious scenario C$130.50, base C$186.42, optimistic C$242.36 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price C$218.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DOL?
Dollarama Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$186.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 28.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 41.6, P/S 7.7, EV/EBITDA 32.5.
What is the PEG ratio of DOL?
The PEG ratio of Dollarama Inc is 2.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dollarama Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 93.1%, debt of 1.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DOL from its 52-week high?
Dollarama Inc trades at C$218.70, about 1% below its 52-week high of C$220.00 and 32% above the low of C$165.39 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$186.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dollarama Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollar General Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dollarama Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price C$218.70, calculated fair value C$186.42 (−15%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOL calculated?
We run Dollarama Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$186.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Dollarama Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$218.70. Our model-based fair value is C$186.42, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dollarama Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (C$130.50 to C$242.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Dollarama Inc (DOL) come from?
Earnings per share at Dollarama Inc grew +17.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.4 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Dollarama Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The market capitalisation of Dollarama Inc is C$60.5B (≈ $43.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dollarama Inc is 7.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Earnings per share at Dollarama Inc are C$4.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The dividend yield of Dollarama Inc is 0.2% (payout 8.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The net margin of Dollarama Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dollarama Inc is 93.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dollarama Inc is 25.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
The operating margin of Dollarama Inc is 23.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Revenue at Dollarama Inc is growing +17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dollarama Inc (DOL)?
Earnings per share at Dollarama Inc are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dollarama Inc (DOL) carry?
The net debt of Dollarama Inc is C$5.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026