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FutureFuel Corp (FF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of FutureFuel Corp stock $2.88, price $5.32, that is 45.9% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

FC FutureFuel Corp logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

FutureFuel Corp

FF · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 46% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Revenue last quarter +121% vs. a year ago.
Quality 40/100
3.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Insiders bought $42,800 (6M)
Fair value $2.88 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.1 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -17.2% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 22/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$6.37 $3.00 Fair Value $2.88 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.00 – $6.37 · fair‑value band $1.90 – $3.60 · the $5.32 price screens above the $2.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

FutureFuel Corp., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells diversified inorganic chemicals, bio-based fuel, and bio-based specialty chemical products in the United States. It operates through two segments: Chemicals and Biofuels.

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The Chemicals segment includes custom chemicals that are used in coatings, chemical intermediates, industrial and consumer cleaning, oil and gas, and specialty chemicals for specific customers under long-term contracts; and performance chemicals, which are multi-customer specialty products such as polymer modifiers, specialty solvents, surfactants, and glycerin products.

The Biofuels segment is involved in the production and sale of biodiesel and petrodiesel blends; markets its biodiesel products directly to customers through trucks, barges, and rail cars; and biodiesel using a variety of feedstocks, including soy oil, poultry fat, used cooking oil, and tallow, and generates and sells byproducts such as glycerin and distillation residue.

The company offers its chemical products to customers in markets including detergents, agrochemicals, automotive, oil and gas, coatings, nutrition, and polymer additives. The company serves the transportation, agriculture, heating, and energy sectors.

FutureFuel Corp. is headquartered in Batesville, Arkansas.

Stock analysis

FutureFuel Corp (FF) currently trades at $5.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.88, 46% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.90 (bear) to $3.60 (bull), the price of $5.32 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

FutureFuel Corp reported revenue of $95.7M in FY2025 versus $321M in FY2021, a compound −26.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$49.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $235M Micro · P/S ratio 1.67 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7100 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin −17.2% · Return on equity −15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −46%, FF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.90 Fair Value $2.88 Bull $3.60
Price $5.32 · Downside -45.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.9500 $1.44 $1.80 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.9500 $1.44 $1.80 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 6
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 2
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 97
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 70
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 40
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 60
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 74
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 78
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $42,800, on Jun 4, 2026.

  • BuyRoeland PoletChief Executive Officer, Director2× since Nov 20, 2025: 25,000 shares, avg. $3.63$90,800Jun 4, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−60.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
10.9% (2020) → −56.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

FF screens overvalued: fair value 46% below the price. Compare with Linde plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 728 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −45.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −25.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −17.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 14.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 120.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.52× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.53× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 67
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)71 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 263.00 TWD 420.80 TWD +60% vs FF
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥72.65 ¥68.03 −6% vs FF
Linde plc LIN $515.25 $446.62 −13% vs FF
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $122.38 $77.68 −37% vs FF
DSM-Firmenich AG DSFIR CHF 100.50 CHF 57.70 −43% vs FF
The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW $344.10 $146.37 −57% vs FF
Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 4,054 CHF 1,554 −62% vs FF
EMS-CHEMIE HOLDING AG EMSN CHF 848.50 CHF 284.63 −66% vs FF
Ecolab Inc ECL $300.68 $96.56 −68% vs FF
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD $304.84 $75.33 −75% vs FF

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FutureFuel Corp: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FutureFuel Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FF

Frequently asked questions

Is FutureFuel Corp (FF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.88 versus a price of $5.32, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FF?
Our model-based fair value for FutureFuel Corp is $2.88 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.32.
What is the quality score of FF?
FutureFuel Corp has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.88 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.90, optimistic scenario $3.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FutureFuel Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.88, about 46% lower versus a price of $5.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.90, optimistic scenario $3.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
FutureFuel Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $153M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does FutureFuel Corp pay a dividend?
FutureFuel Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of FutureFuel Corp (FF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
FutureFuel Corp pays a dividend of $0.19 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.6%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 4, 2026, with payment on Dec 18, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FutureFuel Corp it is $2.88 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $5.32. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is FutureFuel Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, FF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.32, fair value $2.88, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.88). For FutureFuel Corp the two are $2.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FutureFuel Corp worth?
The market values FutureFuel Corp at about $235M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $5.32; our models calculate a fair value of $2.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FF?
Our models span a range for FutureFuel Corp: cautious scenario $1.90, base $2.88, optimistic $3.60 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $5.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Balance-sheet figures for FutureFuel Corp (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −15.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FF from its 52-week high?
FutureFuel Corp trades at $5.32, about 16% below its 52-week high of $6.37 and 78% above the low of $3.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FutureFuel Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FutureFuel Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $5.32, calculated fair value $2.88 (−46%), Quality Score 40/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FF calculated?
We run FutureFuel Corp through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.88 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. FutureFuel Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $5.32. Our model-based fair value is $2.88, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FutureFuel Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.90 to $3.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of FutureFuel Corp (FF) come from?
Earnings per share at FutureFuel Corp grew −7.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −10.8 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of FutureFuel Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The market capitalisation of FutureFuel Corp is $235M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FutureFuel Corp is 1.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Earnings per share at FutureFuel Corp are $−0.7100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The dividend yield of FutureFuel Corp is 3.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The net margin of FutureFuel Corp is −17.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FutureFuel Corp is −15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FutureFuel Corp is −1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
The operating margin of FutureFuel Corp is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Revenue at FutureFuel Corp is growing +121% versus a year earlier (3y avg −37.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FutureFuel Corp (FF)?
Earnings per share at FutureFuel Corp are growing −88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does FutureFuel Corp (FF) generate?
The free cash flow of FutureFuel Corp is −$46.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does FutureFuel Corp (FF) hold?
FutureFuel Corp holds more cash than debt, $51.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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